Transports en commun - Discussion générale

[Né entre les rapides]

il y a une heure, geraldshaw a dit :

The last annual report of the Caisse (2019) shows $50 billion of its  $161 billion in net assets are invested  in private equity. Caisse Infra is part of that. The advantages of private equity are higher returns when a project is on  stream  > 8% / annum vs,  a near negative real interest  rate world. The disadvantage of private equity is the dangerous  lack of liquidity as  more and more savings of  private and private pension funds all over the world have bid  up the entry  value to own or control a  large project funded by pension funds via     private equity to earn actuarial returns needed  5-10 years down the road --  returns needed to keep their pension funds  from becoming underfunded. The loss of liquidity due to  their growing private equity share of total assets is rarely discussed by the politicians or corporate pension officers.  Diversification of projects  is used, but in a very uncertain future  world, were just a few of the world's largest pension funds to become underfunded  certain    private equity investments  would suddenly be for sale in a very illiquid world. Any forced  exit in pension funds'  private equity means that  the little guy - the pensioner is the one holding the bag with lower pensions in the future and higher premiums in the short-term.  Caveat emptor.

 

il y a 1 minute, geraldshaw a dit :

No blame, just an observation of risk  --  that pension funds -- both private and public like la caisse  are investing more and more heavily into illiquid private equity.  It is becoming  a worry to pension and insurance company  actuaries. Like all fads - best not to overdo them. Capital in the billions is invested over several  years with  zero returns during the build out years,  then future returns are  dependent on the assumptions made for a project made years, sometimes a decade  earlier. 

You are introducing (knowingly I'm sure) a very difficult subject matter into  the discussion.  Pension funds are facing the huge challenge of maintaining sufficient real rates of return on their global portofolios to meet their commitments to present and future pensioners.  Past commitments were made on (what I believe were) overly optimistic assumptions on future returns.   In fact, several major pension funds (notably in U.S. cities/states) are already underfunded even under those optimistic assumptions: if more realistic assumptions were used, the problem would likely appear insurmountable.  I believe that corporate pension officers know that; for their part, politicians are unprepared or unwilling to face the ugly truth: they would rather hope that it becomes evident/inevitable only later.

So pension funds had to seek ways to increase their returns, all the while following statutory requirements in regard to the composition of their portofolios.  Investing in private equity  was one of those available means.  You are correct to  outline the danger of a lack of liquidity in pursuing this avenue. But this begs the question: are there alternatives?  As we have witnessed in the case of the CDPQ foray in the asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) market, taking higher risks is not "always" the best approach.  On the other hand, diversification is fine for (relative) stability, but this is not the way to outperform the market.  Investing in private equity might remain the best course. But I agree with you that it's "best not to overdo them".

It was much easier for me to state the problem, than it would be to offer solutions.  Frankly, I see none that would not require divine intervention, except one: government support that would of course result in additional burdens for taxpayers.  Pensioners' expectations might have to be lowered, sooner or later, as part of the deal.  All this being said, I believe that the CDPQ is in a much better shape than several of its American counterparts: hell will not come our way tomorrow.  Now, as for the proposed investment by the CDPQ-i in the REM de l'Est, it would be too small (relatively speaking) to materially affect the Caisse, even in a worst case scenario.  The losses from ABCP were much larger, and the Caisse survived it handily.

[SameGuy]

Topic still needs a separate thread. Minor, temporary tangents are normal, but derailing a thread ignores basic etiquette.

[Né entre les rapides]

il y a 38 minutes, SameGuy a dit :

Topic still needs a separate thread. Minor, temporary tangents are normal, but derailing a thread ignores basic etiquette.

Agreed.  My reply to @geraldshaw  a few minutes ago was going along with the current tangent and as such was clearly participating in this derailing of the main thread.  There ought to be a way to pursue a worthy discussion while transitioning to a new, separate thread.  At what point should we do it?  Creating a new thread without reference to the previous discussions that have lead to it would look awkward as well.

[geraldshaw]

A NEW REM-EST THREAD.

So please tell me how to start a new thread. Who decides the title? I am happy to do so, but being a new boy I need guidance on how to create and new thread and how to name it. Pls advise.

[champdemars]

il y a 13 minutes, geraldshaw a dit :

A NEW REM-EST THREAD.

So please tell me how to start a new thread. Who decides the title? I am happy to do so, but being a new boy I need guidance on how to create and new thread and how to name it. Pls advise.

C’est assez facile, tu peux décider toi-même du sujet, au pire, un administrateur corrigera au besoin.

Dans la section où tu souhaites créer le fil, tu as un bouton en haut pour créer un nouveau sujet:

 

[geraldshaw]

Merci. J'essayerais  le faire.

[jesseps]

Did the STM finally convert all their buses to electric or that has been pushed to a future date?

[Né entre les rapides]

il y a 18 minutes, jesseps a dit :

Did the STM finally convert all their buses to electric or that has been pushed to a future date?

Did!  -- Are you kidding? -- If it had been the case, it would have been obvious to anyone and everyone merely passing by.  In fact, virtually the whole world would have heard of this "extraordinary feat".  To my knowledge, the only place currently boasting an all-electric bus fleet is Shenzhen in China across from Hong Kong.

"Pushed to a future date"?  -- This implies that the conversion was to have taken place by now or yesterday: I was not aware of such a lofty goal.  

Reality: there is indeed an objective to convert all the STM buses to electric by a certain year in the future, beginning in 2025.

 

[Dominic723]

il y a 51 minutes, jesseps a dit :

Did the STM finally convert all their buses to electric or that has been pushed to a future date?

They are actually retrofitting 3 garages for the new 300 electric buses, announce by the city before the pandemic. One step after the other one. I still think there is a goal to turn them all electrical, but it will probably be very gradual, without a final deadline, since they buses would be replace when they will need new ones. 

Also the STM won't just scrap their hybrides bus soon, since lost of them are fairly new.

 

[SameGuy]

When did I miss an order for 300 electric buses?