Transports en commun - Discussion générale

[Decel]

Street cred aside, I do have some arguments about these parts.

Il y a 4 heures, geraldshaw a dit :

Regarding costs of rapid transit in North America, after much research   I can find not a single example of a rapid transit project being delivered any where near initial  cost projections. The blame  game / explanations are almost always politicized. 

I agree in general, but the particular point of CDPQi is that they're the operators of this project with a fixed consumer transit cost that they charge the ARTM. They have every incentive into making this profitable, and passenger ridership is a component in the calculation of profit.

At the very least it's better than what the Quebec government can do, in my humble opinion.

Also, you don't seem to be complaining much on the blue line extension. Is it because they're burning oogles of money (half the east branch budget, for 5 stations over 5 km if you don't recall) underground out of sight?

Citation

Furthermore,  la  Caisse owns Ivanhoe which has $26 billion in real estate assets -- that include  PVM, Le Fairmont Queen E, and 1000 de la G. Is Ivanhoe really and truly on board with an elevated REM-est in the downtown core? Their  silence speaks volumes. 

To me this is a good example against having an ugly infrastructure. Why do you presume that they're being silenced against their will? For the Caisse in general, having the left hand (CDPQi) stabbing the right hand (Ivanhoe) doesn't usually lead to success, especially if the hand being stabbed is worth roughly 10% of your assets under management.

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Why did Macky  Tall  leave the Caisse-infra? Do the opinion experts on this site care to comment on this and when the true facts on Ivanhoe/Tall/Caisse-I positions are?

As a CFA and overseeing big projects and therefore big companies, you must be fully aware that leadership changes often shakes the whole organization. Macky was in the running to be the big boss, which he lost. Anyone with an ounce of pride and aspiration would move to better opportunities instead of waiting another 8-10 years for a shot at the top. It's not like Charles will retire anytime soon.

In this last part especially you're tying together facts and explaining them to suit your own narrative.

[geraldshaw]

Ivanhoe's assets of $26 billion are gross before debt,  which as you know in commercial real estate likely values la Caisse's Ivanhoe equity valuation to be $5-$6 billion of la Caisse's nearly $300 billion of assets under management.

I hear you re Macky Tall and his career options. And so are coincidences. In time,  we may never know the internal politics that lead to the surprise REM-est announcements when the costs  of REM west and the airport station were on the front pages.  This is Quebec after all. 

This business of "suiting my own narrative" puzzles me.  I have read so many posts  where an opinion is expressed with supporting and without supporting evidence.   Pray explain to us all what differentiates a proper and an improper post?

Maybe the moderator needs to provide some guidance. 

[andre md]

5 hours ago, SameGuy said:

Again, an extreme example that doesn’t represent the current designs for elevated guideways. The tracks above New York streets were built a hundred years ago to be functional, and that they are, with roughly 25% more daily boardings per kilometre than our own very busy Métro.

 

5 hours ago, SameGuy said:

Again, an extreme example that doesn’t represent the current designs for elevated guideways. The tracks above New York streets were built a hundred years ago to be functional, and that they are, with roughly 25% more daily boardings per kilometre than our own very busy Métro.

That's what i told extreme exemple. 

 

[andre md]

5 hours ago, Enalung said:

It's worth noting that several of the elevated guideways in Queens have 3 tracks which allows trains to pass each other. 

This is what i said this is an extreme result. And it's awful.

I'm pretty sure we will never get something like that for the REM. 

[SameGuy]

4 hours ago, Decel said:

At the very least it's better than what the Quebec government can do, in my humble opinion.

I agree without hesitation. The original Métro was built by the city, with a single-minded pursuit of building a flagship transit system that could be held up as a model for the rest of the world. Corners were cut, norms disregarded, and decisions based on efficiency and progress rather than logic and safety. Similarly — though not identically — the Caisse has been given an abundance of freedom to pursue Québec’s goal of supplying a flagship transit system as quickly as they can, allowing for some looseness with logic and civic norms, however without sacrificing safety. In turn, the Caisse is allowed to pursue a goal of providing a return for its investors: the residents and workers of Québec. The parallels between the original Métro and REM are rather uncanny. 

 

[SameGuy]

21 minutes ago, andre md said:

 

That's what i told extreme exemple. 

 

😂 Yes. I apologize for my obtuseness!

[geraldshaw]

The last annual report of the Caisse (2019) shows $50 billion of its  $161 billion in net assets are invested  in private equity. Caisse Infra is part of that. The advantages of private equity are higher returns when a project is on  stream  > 8% / annum vs,  a near negative real interest  rate world. The disadvantage of private equity is the dangerous  lack of liquidity as  more and more savings of  private and private pension funds all over the world have bid  up the entry  value to own or control a  large project funded by pension funds via     private equity to earn actuarial returns needed  5-10 years down the road --  returns needed to keep their pension funds  from becoming underfunded. The loss of liquidity due to  their growing private equity share of total assets is rarely discussed by the politicians or corporate pension officers.  Diversification of projects  is used, but in a very uncertain future  world, were just a few of the world's largest pension funds to become underfunded  certain    private equity investments  would suddenly be for sale in a very illiquid world. Any forced  exit in pension funds'  private equity means that  the little guy - the pensioner is the one holding the bag with lower pensions in the future and higher premiums in the short-term.  Caveat emptor.

[Decel]

il y a 49 minutes, geraldshaw a dit :

The last annual report of the Caisse (2019) shows $50 billion of its  $161 billion in net assets are invested  in private equity. Caisse Infra is part of that. The advantages of private equity are higher returns when a project is on  stream  > 8% / annum vs,  a near negative real interest  rate world. The disadvantage of private equity is the dangerous  lack of liquidity as  more and more savings of  private and private pension funds all over the world have bid  up the entry  value to own or control a  large project funded by pension funds via     private equity to earn actuarial returns needed  5-10 years down the road --  returns needed to keep their pension funds  from becoming underfunded. The loss of liquidity due to  their growing private equity share of total assets is rarely discussed by the politicians or corporate pension officers.  Diversification of projects  is used, but in a very uncertain future  world, were just a few of the world's largest pension funds to become underfunded  certain    private equity investments  would suddenly be for sale in a very illiquid world. Any forced  exit in pension funds'  private equity means that  the little guy - the pensioner is the one holding the bag with lower pensions in the future and higher premiums in the short-term.  Caveat emptor.

Absolutely.

In stark contrast a government will spend what it is necessary to realize its goal, throwing good money after bad. Governments will blame any over-spending, underperforming results and -most importantly- the lack of accountability on the previous administration, and will change the goal -serving the public, generate an economy, and/or maintain a specialization- to suit their narrative. At the end of the day, it's no one's fault if it's everybody's fault.

Between those two sets of poison, I prefer the CDPQi, as the target isn't as abstract. They have to at least report earnings worthy enough for CFAs to analyze and comment upon.

At the very least let them fail before blaming them of failure.

[geraldshaw]

No blame, just an observation of risk  --  that pension funds -- both private and public like la caisse  are investing more and more heavily into illiquid private equity.  It is becoming  a worry to pension and insurance company  actuaries. Like all fads - best not to overdo them. Capital in the billions is invested over several  years with  zero returns during the build out years,  then future returns are  dependent on the assumptions made for a project made years, sometimes a decade  earlier. 

[Decel]

il y a une heure, geraldshaw a dit :

No blame, just an observation of risk  --  that pension funds -- both private and public like la caisse  are investing more and more heavily into illiquid private equity.  It is becoming  a worry to pension and insurance company  actuaries. Like all fads - best not to overdo them. Capital in the billions is invested over several  years with  zero returns during the build out years,  then future returns are  dependent on the assumptions made for a project made years, sometimes a decade  earlier. 

Yes but at the end of the day they're still compared to their peers and the general market. CDPQ was criticized for being under-FANGed in this Pandemic, and Ivanhoe's over-leverage in commercial centers really bit them.

In short, they're a lot more accountable than governments.