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[ErickMontreal]

Obama Widens Lead in Two Polls Less Than Month Before Election

 

By Jonathan D. Salant

Enlarge Image/Details

 

Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama has widened his lead over Republican presidential rival John McCain in two national polls and is maintaining an edge in two daily tracking polls with less than a month to go before the election.

 

An NBC-Wall Street Journal poll found Obama supported by 49 percent of registered voters, a 6-point margin over McCain. Two weeks ago an NBC-Journal poll put Obama's lead at 2 points.

 

Obama led McCain 53 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in a CNN-Opinion Research Corp. survey, up from a 4-point advantage for the Democrat in September. Obama's lead widened to 14 points, 56 percent to 42 percent, among registered voters.

 

He also is ahead by 8 points in a Gallup Inc. daily tracking poll of registered voters, the 10th straight day he's held a statistically significant lead in that survey. A Diageo- Hotline tracking poll showed Obama getting 47 percent to McCain's 41 percent.

 

All four polls were conducted after the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate, and after Congress passed and President George W. Bush signed a $700 billion financial rescue plan designed to unlock credit markets and restore confidence in the banking system.

 

Bush's record-low unpopularity is hurting McCain, said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director.

Low Approval for Bush

 

``Bush's approval rating is as low as Richard Nixon's was on the day he resigned and a growing number of Americans think John McCain's policies will be similar to Bush's,'' Holland said. Twenty-four percent of respondents in the CNN poll said they approved of the job Bush is doing and 74 percent said they disapproved.

 

No matter which candidate they supported, 60 percent of likely voters surveyed by CNN said they expected Obama would win Nov. 4.

 

Half of the registered voters surveyed by CNN were asked if Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, was qualified to be president: 57 percent said she wasn't and 43 percent said she was. Among the half of registered voters who were asked if Senator Joe Biden of Delaware is qualified, 80 percent said yes and 18 percent said no.

 

Biden, Palin

 

The NBC-Journal poll found 74 percent of those questioned said Biden was qualified to step into the Oval Office while 41 percent said they believe Palin is qualified.

 

That survey also found that 50 percent of those questioned said Obama and Biden won their debates with the Republican candidates, compared with 29 percent who view McCain and Palin the winners.

 

The CNN, Gallup and Diageo-Hotline polls were conducted Oct. 3-5. The NBC-Journal poll was conducted Oct. 4-5. CNN gave the margin of error for its poll of 919 registered voters as 3 percentage points and 3.5 percentage points for the subgroup of 694 likely voters. The margin for the NBC-Journal poll of 658 registered voters was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

 

The tracking polls are a rolling average of results of each day's polling over the period. Gallup gives a margin or error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for its survey; The Diageo- Hotline poll has a 3.3 percentage point margin of error.

 

To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan D. Salant in Washington at jsalant@bloomberg.net.

[Cataclaw]

Debate #2...

 

Honestly, i thought both candidates sucked last night. With all the debate rules being broken and the relatively flat enthusiasm, it was somewhat drab.

 

That being said, Obama came out on top, though ever so slightly. McCain needed a knockout punch and didn't land it.

[ErickMontreal]

Publié le 08 octobre 2008 à 10h30 | Mis à jour le 08 octobre 2008 à 10h32

Les États où se joue l'élection présidentielle américaine

 

 

Cyberpresse

 

L'élection à la Maison-Blanche de Barack Obama ou de John McCain se décidera dans une poignée d'États dont le basculement dans le camp républicain ou démocrate pourrait désigner le vainqueur.

 

Le site Politico propose une carte des États hésitants. Il est notamment possible de voir si l'État a voté majoritaire démocrate ou républicain en 2000 et en 2004.

[ErickMontreal]

Avec la crise, John McCain perd du terrain

Par Kimberly Hefling, ASSOCIATED PRESS

 

KITTANING, Pennsylvanie - Les aciéries et les mines de charbon de l'ouest de la Pennsylvanie ont jadis fait tourner le moteur économique des Etats-Unis. De ces jours prospères, il ne reste plus aujourd'hui que des usines désaffectées et des commerces abandonnés.

Mais les électeurs des enclaves ouvrières comme celle de cette région de Pennsylvanie constituent un réservoir de voix très recherché en période de campagne présidentielle. Et avec la crise financière, beaucoup d'entre eux semblent se rapprocher du candidat démocrate Barack Obama.

 

Lors des primaires démocrates, les ouvriers blancs avaient fortement soutenu sa rivale, la sénatrice Hillary Clinton. Les sondages ultérieurs donnaient ensuite un avantage massif au candidat républicain John McCain. Depuis, la crainte de voir leur situation financière se dégrader encore semble pousser beaucoup d'entre eux vers Barack Obama. Certains ont évolué plus par inquiétude sur la façon dont McCain gérerait la crise que par réelle admiration pour le candidat démocrate.

 

"Je ne crois pas qu'il y ait quelque chose en particulier que j'apprécie chez lui (Obama), mais je n'aime pas McCain, et je n'aime pas l'état dans lequel est le pays, et les républicains doivent changer", expliquait récemment Ruth Ann Michel, une retraitée de 64 ans, républicaine depuis toujours, croisée dans la ville de Butler. C'est la première fois, dit-elle, qu'elle s'apprête à voter pour un candidat démocrate à la présidence.

 

Dans ces régions, l'essentiel des discussions concerne l'économie, mais la question raciale demeure décisive. Selon une étude sur l'impact des considérations raciales sur le résultat de l'élection menée par l'Associated Press avec Yahoo News et l'université de Stanford, les blancs n'ayant pas reçu d'éducation supérieure sont plus enclin à avoir des préjugés sur les noirs, que ceux ayant suivi des études universitaires.

 

Mais pour le gouverneur démocrate Ed Rendell, un homme en train de se noyer se moque de la couleur de la peau de la personne qui lui jette une bouée de sauvetage. Pour lui, tout se décidera au moment où les Américains regarderont leurs factures et se demanderont qui est le plus à même de les aider à améliorer leur situation financière. "Si la réponse est Barack Obama, personne ne va se soucier du fait qu'il soit noir, vert, orange, violet, fuchsia ou autre".

 

En avril, Ed Rendell avait soutenu Hillary Clinton lors de la primaire, et il avait dû s'expliquer sur ses propos après avoir déclaré que certains blancs de son Etat étaient davantage susceptibles de voter contre Obama en raison de sa couleur de peau.

 

Début septembre, McCain disposait d'une avance de 26 points parmi les électeurs blancs non-diplomés susceptibles de voter le jour de l'élection, selon un sondage AP-Gfk. Mais à la fin du mois, son avance s'était réduite à sept points, McCain menant 46% contre 39% dans cette catégorie.

 

Barack Obama enregistre ainsi un bien meilleur score au sein de cette catégorie que les derniers candidats démocrates à la présidentielle. Le président George W. Bush s'était imposé chez les électeurs blancs non-diplomés avec une avance de 23 points en 2004 et de 17 points en 2000.

 

En Pennsylvanie, un sondage de l'université de Quinnipiac donnait récemment Obama en tête des intentions de vote avec plus de 10 points d'avance, alors que la course était encore très serrée à la fin de la convention républicaine.

 

Pour Clay Richards, un sondeur de Quinnipiac, c'est parce que le soutien de la classe ouvrière à Obama est en augmentation, et il pense que nombre d'anciens supporteurs d'Hillary Clinton sont en train de rejoindre le camp du sénateur de l'Illinois.

 

Dans l'ouest de la Pennsylvanie, républicains comme démocrates affichent des valeurs plutôt traditionnelles, se montrant opposés au contrôle des armes et hostiles à l'avortement. Beaucoup font partie des "Reagan democrats", ces démocrates qui avaient voté pour Ronald Reagan, prêts à élire un républicain sur des sujets de société.

 

Si certaines régions ont prospéré à nouveau après la période difficile des années 1980, la plupart ne s'en sont jamais remises. Les populations ont diminué et un grand nombre de ceux qui restent sont âgés.

 

L'agenda de campagne des deux candidats montre bien l'importance qu'ils attachent aux "cols bleus" de Pennsylvanie. McCain et sa colistière Sarah Palin ont notamment tenu un meeting mercredi dans l'ancien bastion sidérurgique de Bethlehem situé dans le nord-est de l'Etat. Vendredi, Palin s'est arrêté à Pittsburgh, avant de se rendre à Johnstown dans l'ouest de l'Etat, où le taux de chômeurs a récemment atteint 7%.

 

De son coté, Obama devait être samedi à Philadelphie. Et dimanche, son colistier, le sénateur du Delaware Joe Biden, devait être rejoint dans sa ville natale de Scranton par Hillary Clinton et son époux, l'ancien président Clinton.

 

Le vote ouvrier sera en effet extrêmement important dans les "swing states" de Pennsylvanie, du Michigan et d'Ohio, des Etats où le résultat sera particulièrement serré et où le pourcentage d'adultes sans diplôme universitaire dépasse la moyenne nationale.

[MTLskyline]

It's looking more and more like a Democrat win. I could tolerate that more than the Conservatives losing in Canada.

[ErickMontreal]

Obama Details Plan to Aid Victims of Fiscal Crisis

Article Tools Sponsored By

By JACKIE CALMES and JEFF ZELENY

Published: October 13, 2008

 

TOLEDO, Ohio — Senator Barack Obama proposed new steps on Monday to address the economic crisis, calling for temporary but costly new programs to help employers, automakers, homeowners, the unemployed, and state and local governments.

 

In an address here, Mr. Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, proposed giving employers a $3,000 tax credit for each new hire to encourage job creation. He said he would seek to allow Americans of all ages to borrow from retirement savings without a tax penalty; to eliminate income taxes on unemployment benefits; and to double, to $50 billion, the government’s loan guarantees for automakers.

 

Mr. Obama also called on the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to create a mechanism to lend money to cities and states with fiscal problems, and to expand the government guarantees for financial institutions to encourage a return to more normal lending. He also proposed a 90-day moratorium on most home foreclosures; it would require financial institutions that take government help to agree not to act against homeowners who are trying to make payments, even if not the full amounts.

 

“We need to give people the breathing room they need to get back on their feet,” Mr. Obama told a crowd of more than 3,000 people at the SeaGate Convention Centre in downtown Toledo.

 

Mr. Obama’s Republican rival, Senator John McCain, will make new proposals for the economy on Tuesday, advisers said. They did not provide any details.

 

Late Sunday, after Mr. McCain and his team looked at a variety of policy options over the weekend, a campaign spokesman said Mr. McCain, who has been losing ground to Mr. Obama in the polls, would have no new proposals unless events warranted. Mr. McCain has been emphasizing his plan to help people with financial difficulties get more affordable mortgages, with taxpayers picking up the tab.

 

In his speech on Monday, Mr. Obama said: “I won’t pretend this will be easy. George Bush has dug a deep hole for us. It’s going to take a while for us to dig our way out. We’re going to have to set priorities as never before.”

 

The package of new proposals was the most detailed and ambitious offered by Mr. Obama since the financial crisis became acute last month, clouding the economic outlook and transforming the presidential campaign.

 

This struggling manufacturing city is representative of both the economic crisis and the political battle for industrial-belt swing states that could determine the winner of the election. Mr. Obama is spending three days in northwestern Ohio, just south of the auto-making capital, Detroit, mostly sequestered with advisers to prepare for the third and final presidential debate on Wednesday at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.

 

Mr. Obama’s advisers emphasized that many of the new steps he called for could be taken quickly by the Democratic-controlled Congress in a lame-duck session this year, instead of waiting until after the new president is sworn into office in late January. Several steps could be taken by the Treasury and Federal Reserve using their powers under current law, the advisers said.

 

At the Capitol on Monday, Speaker Nancy Pelosi would not commit to calling Congress back immediately after the elections to consider a stimulus plan, given the potential that Mr. Bush would veto it. House Democratic leaders met with economists and afterward said they would develop a package for increased spending on public works, health care subsidies for states, extended unemployment pay and food stamp assistance.

 

Obama advisers put the cost of Mr. Obama’s full economic stimulus plan at $175 billion, including $60 billion for the steps announced Monday.

 

Of the earlier $115 billion, $50 billion would be used to help states and to speed construction of roads and other infrastructure projects that create jobs. About $65 billion of it would be the cost of a second round of rebates to taxpayers this year.

 

Mr. Obama had initially proposed to offset the rebates’ expense with a new windfall-profits tax on oil companies, but the campaign indicated Monday that he would scrap that plan assuming that oil prices do not rise above about $80 a barrel. The shift was just one sign of how the economic crisis has shoved concerns about budget deficits to the sidelines.

 

Despite criticism from the McCain camp that increasing taxes would further endanger the economy, Mr. Obama has “no plans to change” his longstanding proposal to repeal the Bush tax cuts next year for households with an annual income of more than $250,000, said Jason Furman, Mr. Obama’s economic adviser. Under Mr. Obama’s plan, most individuals and families would get a tax cut, and in terms of total dollars, he would cut taxes on lower- and middle-income people more than he would raise them on upper-income people.

 

McCain advisers on Monday reiterated their argument that the higher taxes, together with Mr. Obama’s plan for expanded health care, would hit small businesses with costs they could ill afford. Many small businesses pay taxes as individuals. But the Obama campaign and independent fact-checking groups argue that relatively few would be affected by the tax increase on upper-income levels.

 

The recent surge of government spending to bail out financial institutions and other corporations are likely to drive projections for the federal deficit this year and beyond far above the $438 billion shortfall recorded for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30.

 

Yet the McCain campaign insisted Monday that Mr. McCain would balance the budget by 2013, which would be the end of his first term. Nonpartisan analysts consider that unlikely if not impossible. Mr. Obama is promising to reduce annual deficits from the current level.

 

The most costly of Mr. Obama’s new proposals is the one giving businesses a $3,000 income tax credit for each new full-time employee they hire above their current work force. The proposal, which would be effective for the next two years and is based on a concept that has been used in past downturns, would account for about $40 billion of the new package’s $60 billion price tag.

 

About $10 billion of the $60 billion would go to eliminating income taxes on unemployment benefits and extending aid to the long-term unemployed by 13 weeks, on top of the existing 26 weeks.

 

Mr. Obama’s proposal from last week to allow struggling small businesses to apply for loans from the Small Business Administration’s disaster funds would cost more than $5 billion. The expense of covering additional loan guarantees for the auto industry would mean more than $4 billion more.

 

While not costly to the Treasury, perhaps more controversial is Mr. Obama’s proposal to allow Americans to withdraw without tax penalty 15 percent of their retirement savings, up to $10,000, from their tax-favored Individual Retirement Accounts and 401(k)s. They would still have to pay income taxes on the withdrawal. Current law requires savers younger than 59 ½ to pay taxes and a 10 percent penalty.

 

Economists and nonpartisan analysts generally oppose making it easier for Americans to tap into retirement savings, considering that the United States has a net negative savings rate that is the lowest among the world’s industrialized nations. But Obama advisers counter that many Americans need that money to get by and should not be penalized when major financial institutions are getting bailouts.

 

For savers, the downside to withdrawing money now is that they would get less value given the slide in the stock markets. With that in mind, Mr. McCain last week proposed waiving federal rules that require older Americans to begin withdrawing funds as soon as they reach age 70 ½. On Monday, Mr. Obama praised Mr. McCain’s proposal, telling the Ohioans, “I want to give credit where credit is due.”

 

To impose the 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures, Mr. Obama would have the government, using its existing authority, require financial institutions that take advantage of the Treasury’s rescue plan to agree not to foreclose on the mortgages of any homeowners who are making “good faith efforts” to pay, even if their payments fall short.

[Ornello Mastrocola]

McCain camp braking at the seams. Go Obama!

[Cataclaw]

Crop circles spotted in America!

 

Aliens exist! And they support Obama!

 

Obama now has a > 50% chance of a landslide.

[MTLskyline]

Looks like the Democrats are further to the right than the Conservatives here in Canada. I'm liking Obama more and more. I was hoping for McCain, but his lack of knowledge on the economy is a little worrying (despite his excellent foreign affairs credentials).

 

Obama favours U.S. troop surge in Afghanistan

 

PAUL KORING

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

October 22, 2008 at 7:55 PM EDT

 

WASHINGTON — Sounding presidential, Senator Barack Obama said Wednesday he would order a surge of U.S. troops – perhaps 15,000 or more – to Afghanistan as soon as he reached the White House.

 

“We're confronting an urgent crisis in Afghanistan,” Mr. Obama, the Democratic contender and now clear front-runner to replace George W. Bush, said Wednesday.

 

“It's time to heed the call … for more troops. That's why I'd send at least two or three additional brigades to Afghanistan,” he said in his most hawkish promise to date.

 

A U.S. army brigade includes about 5,000 soldiers along with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and helicopter gunships.

 

Seeking to deflect attacks that he is dangerously inexperienced in foreign policy, Mr. Obama huddled with a high-profile panel of experts before a news conference aimed at showcasing his command of global affairs.

“The terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 are still at large and plotting,” he said, echoing Mr. Bush's oft-repeated refrain.

 

But he was quick to blame Mr. Bush for miring the United States in a pointless war and wrecking its reputation abroad.

 

“We must be vigilant in preventing future attacks, he said. “We're fighting two wars abroad [and] we're facing a range of 21st-century threats from terrorism to nuclear proliferation to our dependence on foreign oil, which have grown more daunting because of the failed policies of the last eight years.”

 

Mr. Obama, speaking in Virginia, a once-solidly Republican state that now could swing Democratic, warned that his rival, John McCain, a decorated former naval officer and combat pilot who endured years of torture as a prisoner of war, would lead America into more danger if he becomes president.

 

“Senator McCain has supported the key decisions and core approaches of President Bush. As president, he would continue the policies that have put our economy into crisis and, I believe, endangered our national security.”

As the deepening economic crisis has all but eclipsed other issues in the final few weeks of the campaign, Mr. McCain has repeatedly tried to shift the debate and portray Mr. Obama as unready to cope with foreign challenges.

 

Earlier this week Joe Biden, the Democrat vice-presidential candidate, predicted that unspecified foreign adversaries would attempt to challenge an inexperienced young president, just as the Cuban Missile Crisis tested president John F. Kennedy in 1962, but claimed Mr. Obama would rise to the occasion.

 

That assurance prompted a new jibe from Mr. McCain: “I know how close we came to a nuclear war and I will not be a president that needs to be tested. I have been tested, Senator Obama has not.”

 

Mr. Obama, at 47, is nearly a quarter-century younger than Mr. McCain and was a toddler in Hawaii during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

 

While Republicans paint Mr. Obama as dangerously naive, the first-term senator from Illinois has shot back by saying Mr. McCain is just wrong-headed

 

“We can't afford another president who ignores the fundamentals of our economy while running up record deficits to fight a war without end in Iraq,” Mr. Obama said Wednesday.

Source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081022.wcampaign_speech23/BNStory/International/

[XplorateUrbain]

Effectivement, je n'avais pas vu ce fil.

 

Je peux dire alors que les travaux sont commencé.