autoroute 10 Autoroute 10 (Bonaventure - portion au nord du canal (boul. urbain))

[Malek]

No mais sérieusement cataclaw, l'essence à monté de 90 sous à 1.30$ en quelques années, sois presque 50% d'augmentation, et il y a toujours les mêmes congestions, les chars se vendent toujours aussi bien, bref rien à changé.

 

Tu réalises que ceux qui prennent leur auto le font surtout pour 2 raisons, soit ils sont obligés ou bien ils préfèrent le comfort de leur auto que celui du métro/bus, même si ça leur coute plus cher qu'une passe de bus.

[Cataclaw]

No mais sérieusement cataclaw, l'essence à monté de 90 sous à 1.30$ en quelques années, sois presque 50% d'augmentation, et il y a toujours les mêmes congestions, les chars se vendent toujours aussi bien, bref rien à changé.

 

Tu réalises que ceux qui prennent leur auto le font surtout pour 2 raisons, soit ils sont obligés ou bien ils préfèrent le comfort de leur auto que celui du métro/bus, même si ça leur coute plus cher qu'une passe de bus.

 

That's simply not true man. A few years ago when gas really spiked up in the U.S., a lot of people left the suburbs for the city, leading to slower growth in the suburbs and faster growth in the city.

 

Some random articles from 2007-2009 proving this did in fact occur:

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/942121/why_are_some_people_moving_from_the.html

http://www.freakonomics.com/2008/04/22/suburbs-are-hurting-from-birth-rates-and-gas-prices/

http://environment.about.com/b/2008/06/30/high-gas-prices-drive-commuters-back-to-the-city.htm

 

I'm not saying that things will change rapidly, but imagine if gas hits 2.60$/L, double what it is today. It would be a double-edged sword. It would encourage people to live closer to the city and use transit more, but it would also seriously hurt the economy.

 

I'm not saying I *want* gas to go up, but it is something that will occur and we need to prepare for it. They're predicting 1.45$-1.50$ in 2012...

[Cataclaw]

How exactly? Gasoline was running $1.32/L today, $2 would imply a 52% increase in fuel costs. I spend a lot of money on gasoline but it isn't a very large chunk of my relatively small salary. I'd be annoyed but particularly considering the inflationary effects of fuel costs, $2 would be annoying for a while but wouldn't put me on the street.

 

2$/L gas wouldn't hurt you much, and i'm happy for you, but a suburban family living in Sainte-Julie, commuting to work in Dorval will be in serious trouble when it costs them 200$ to fill up their SUV.

 

200$ to fill up your vehicle! That's insane. Now i'm not saying everyone is going to flee the suburbs necessarily. Some people will leave the suburbs, true, but others will try to buy a smaller car, use transit if it is available, or drive less. The point here is that gas prices will be driving (no pun intended) a lot of change in the coming future -- in fact, it already has!

 

The long term trend though is ever high gas prices. We can adapt at 2$/L, what about 5$/L? 10$/L?

 

Hydrogen is not going to save us, it requires more energy to make than it puts out.

Electricity is great but we need the electricity first, and generating it from coal powered plants is a bad idea. I think hydro would be good, and even nuclear, but many people are opposed to these two sources.

[Malek]

By the time it hits 10$ (in real dollars, not inflation), electric cars will be king, and that liter will be used for antique cars.

 

200$ to fill up a gaz guzzler, yeah for a while, until they change for a better fuel effecient car, ... they won't stop using the car.

[Habsfan]

I'm not saying that things will change rapidly, but imagine if gas hits 2.60$/L, double what it is today. It would be a double-edged sword. It would encourage people to live closer to the city and use transit more, but it would also seriously hurt the economy

 

Avant que les gens décident de quitter leurs maisons pour des duplex/triplex/condos plus petits en ville, ils vont s'acheter des voiture hybride ou carrément passé aux véhicules électriques. Comme Malek a mentionné, le prix de l'essence à augmenté significativement au couras des 5 dernières années, et il y a toujours autant de véhicules sur la route(si ce n'est pas plus)

[Cyrus]

2$/L gas wouldn't hurt you much, and i'm happy for you, but a suburban family living in Sainte-Julie, commuting to work in Dorval will be in serious trouble when it costs them 200$ to fill up their SUV.

 

200$ to fill up your vehicle! That's insane. Now i'm not saying everyone is going to flee the suburbs necessarily. Some people will leave the suburbs, true, but others will try to buy a smaller car, use transit if it is available, or drive less. The point here is that gas prices will be driving (no pun intended) a lot of change in the coming future -- in fact, it already has!

 

The long term trend though is ever high gas prices. We can adapt at 2$/L, what about 5$/L? 10$/L?

 

Hydrogen is not going to save us, it requires more energy to make than it puts out.

Electricity is great but we need the electricity first, and generating it from coal powered plants is a bad idea. I think hydro would be good, and even nuclear, but many people are opposed to these two sources.

 

I don't think the hydrogen having a negative EROEI is necessarily important. Hydrogen isn't really a fuel. It is a kind of battery, especially when you look at it from the fuel-cell perspective (which is generally how it is thought to work - though hydrogen will run a regular internal combustion engine very well). A hydrogen fuel cell is basically a battery that you recharge by replacing the electrolyte completely instead of chemically reversing the discharge process.

 

I don't think fuel cell really is a real car solution, probably you would see them as a "range extender" on an electric car. Something like the Chevy Volt except with a fuel cell in place of the gas motor-generator. Having a standard battery on board gives you some advantages that fuel cell doesn't like regenerative braking, etc, and fuel cell requires the electric motor and inverter anyway.

 

As for electricity, here in Quebec we are probably the lowest carbon emitting and one of the largest carbon absorbing regions on the planet due to our reliance on hydro. There are tons of untapped hydro areas in Quebec. Hydro is so freaking cheap to develop and produce power that it is by far the optimal solution even if it did make air pollution but it doesn't even do that one There could be environmental issues with it, but all that is needed is careful project development and selection to minimize or eliminate the environmental problems, and, presumably, offer several suitcases of cash to the natives (sorry but that appears to be how it works).

 

200$ to fill up again doesn't sound too nuts. Compare the hit of a increase in fuel costs compared to say the increase in the states with the ARM mortgages when the interest started ratcheting up. That said, the ARM interest was written in the contract and should have been expected, and there was a economic meltdown too, coupled with a spike in oil prices. Consider that a home in Saint-Julie costs roughly $200 000 and a comparable (crappy, 1960's - 1980's) house in the West Island costs roughly $325 000. How many $200 fillups can you buy with $125 000 multiplied by mortgage rate of, lets be optimistic and say 3% over 25 years? Making a long-distance commute more tedious and congested would only serve to increase property values in the core and depress them in the exurbs.

 

I don't really see where this comes in though. It's an argument for better public transit, but it doesn't argue to tear down a road or ignore roads or ban suburbs. If the Sainte-Julie family wants to move closer to the city they are equally free to do so in either situation, the increased congestion factor only makes their bad situation worse and increases their expense on gasoline.

Modifié 11 novembre 2011 par Cyrus

[gars du new jersey]

Cool story bro, tell it again!

[Cataclaw]

The Montreal OD surveys, which I have studied at length for academic purposes, actually paint a different story.

Car trips are decelerating fast and in many cases are actually decreasing (even though trip length and travel time is increasing)

 

So it's false to claim that high gas prices have had no effect -- they have. People are driving less, and people are moving to the city. Yes suburbs are still growing fast, very very fast, but there's a deceleration going.

There's also empirical evidence to suggest this is happening in other North American metropolitan areas, not just Montreal.

 

People will switch to hybrids, sure, but that will only go so far. Hybrids have a 100%+ fuel economy compared to conventional vehicles. If gas prices go up 100%, then you're breaking even. If gas prices go up 200%, what then? Electric vehicles are plagued with problems.. technology is great but it takes time to develop. If gas hits 3$/L in the next 5-10 years, technology may not arrive fast enough to save us.

 

But anyway, regardless of the energy situation, we need to discourage single-driver private automobile use and promote transit. Period.

 

Toll all the highways and bridges and double the metro system.

[steve_36]

Il me semble qu'on est loin du projet de l'autoroute/boulevard Bonaventure, non ?

[Cataclaw]

Je trouve que la discussion est pertinente, quand même. On échange nos perspectives sur le but du projet en tant que tel!

 

Qu'en penses-tu, steve? Réduire la capacité routière, bonne chose?