Marché d'édifices à bureaux de Montréal : actualités

[kool maudit]

http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Office+space+demand+2011/3944074/story.html

 

Office space in demand for 2011

 

Vacancy rate. Growth likely to use up 400,000 square feet

 

By ALLISON LAMPERT, The GazetteDecember 8, 2010

 

Montreal's downtown office market, already at its lowest vacancy rate in more than 20 years, is expected to pick up next year, raising the prospect of new construction, a Cushman & Wakefield report published yesterday says.

 

While the Montreal market remained mostly flat in 2010, several Canadian cities exceeded industry expectations this year, with Toronto delivering the best performance in North America, the report said.

 

Cushman's bullish outlook for 2011 includes the spectre of announcements for new construction across the country -including Montreal which hasn't had a privately-developed downtown office building since 1992.

 

"It would be nice for the city of Montreal to get a tenant and an A building going," said Louis Burgos, branch manager for Cushman's Montreal offices. "It would be a positive sign for the city."

 

The flat year Montreal experienced in 2010 was unusual for the city, which usually has 400,000 to 500,000 square feet of positive absorption after a recession, he said.

 

"We're probably running a year behind," said Burgos, who expects to see such numbers next year. "We'll basically have our 2010 in 2011."

 

Burgos attributed the delay in Montreal to companies' reluctance to hire post recession.

 

"Our negative absorption in 2009 was over a million square feet. It was just a huge negative impact. Typically speaking, what happens in the business world is that before you start hiring again you need to be sure you are entrenched in a recovery mode," he said.

 

"We're maybe slower and not as confident getting back into a hiring mode."

 

Still the downtown central office vacancy rate in Montreal is around eight per cent -its lowest level since the 1980s.

 

"If you're a major tenant in town right now looking for 200,000 or 250,000 square feet of contiguous space it's not there," he said.

 

But unlike Toronto where the banking sector has been in expansion mode, Montreal's growth industry in 2010 -residential construction -doesn't translate into increased demand for downtown office space.

 

Burgos said he believes natural company growth would compose the 400,000 to 500,000 square feet of positive absorption expected in 2011.

 

If such natural growth continued for the next few years, Montreal's vacancy rate would drop further, driving up rents that have been stagnant in the last year. That would give the economic justification for new construction as rents would be higher in a new building.

 

"If you say there's no new construction and if there's any kind of minimal absorption -and by that I would mean 400,000 or 500,000 square feet over the next three years -that would take a point off that downtown central area vacancy, so we'd go from eight per cent to five per cent," Burgos said.

 

"At that point you're really, really tight on your space. So you can anticipate that the economic prices of rentals would be equivalent to the price of new construction."

 

At the end of the day it's up to tenant demand.

 

"They (companies) need to make a decision over the next 12 to 18 months in terms of where they're going to be three years from now - especially if they're going to take expansion," he said. "So long as the market picks up there might be an opportunity for development of a new office building."

 

alampert@montrealgazette.com

© Copyright © The Montreal Gazette

[MtlMan]

Bravo! You beat me by 1 minute to it!

 

C'est une très bonne nouvelle! Je pensais bien que les perspectives de croissance à plus long terme finiraient par commander de l,action de ce côté dans les 18 prochains mois. Allison vient de me le confirmer.

 

Maintenant, une question pour vous tous, plus au fait que moi sur le milieu: dans l'éventualité que la demande stimulerait une nouvelle construction de tour à bureaux, quel projet croyez-vous risque le plus de voir le jour en premier? Square Philips? 900 Maisonneuve? Place University St-Jacques? etc.

 

Merci de vos lumières

[acpnc]

On va garder les doigts croisés en espérant voir un de nos tant promis édifices en hauteur percer le ciel de Montréal.

[acpnc]

Bravo! You beat me by 1 minute to it!

 

C'est une très bonne nouvelle! Je pensais bien que les perspectives de croissance à plus long terme finiraient par commander de l,action de ce côté dans les 18 prochains mois. Allison vient de me le confirmer.

 

Maintenant, une question pour vous tous, plus au fait que moi sur le milieu: dans l'éventualité que la demande stimulerait une nouvelle construction de tour à bureaux, quel projet croyez-vous risque le plus de voir le jour en premier? Square Philips? 900 Maisonneuve? Place University St-Jacques? etc.

 

Merci de vos lumières

 

Amusant je pensais exactement la même chose en voulant poser la question. Je passa donc à l'action en ouvrant un fil dans les sondages.

[MtlMan]

Yeah!!

[MtlMan]

Je viens d'aller voir sur ton fil, et je répondrai en temps voulu, mais la question que je posais est légèrement différente: quel projet PENSEZ-VOUS sera construit en premier? La nuance est importante, puisqu'il ne s,agit pas de préférences personnelles, mais de considérations logiques basées sur le marché, les promoteurs, etc.

 

Merci!

[GDS]

Why do these reports always say no private office buildings in Montreal since 1992? Why doesn't the Quebecor Tower count?

[monctezuma]

Why do these reports always say no private office buildings in Montreal since 1992? Why doesn't the Quebecor Tower count?

 

J'imagine qu'il est question de tours à louer alors que celle de Québécor est plutôt une compagnie qui s'agrandit elle même ?

[pedepy]

"If you're a major tenant in town right now looking for 200,000 or 250,000 square feet of contiguous space it's not there," he said.

 

as in, build it - and they will come! because why would you - were you one of those potential tenants - wait two, three, if not five years for a tower to get approved, and then built, to open up shop ?

 

i'm not saying blindly fund projects so we end up with more cite multimedia disasters, but it just proves why hot markets stay hot: they're speculation driven. right now, no one wants to take a chance on us, and so everybody is looking elsewhere.

 

just look at our own residential condo & rental market. granted, it's no toronto, but things have certainly been on the uprise lately. why? because promoters sense that there's a buck to be made, making them much more willing to take a risk on the investment. and as a result, residential projects are popping up everywhere. if somehow the same vibe can hit the office rental market, we'll see towers shooting out of the ground faster than we can count them - just 'cause they'll all wanna build it first.

[acpnc]

Je viens d'aller voir sur ton fil, et je répondrai en temps voulu, mais la question que je posais est légèrement différente: quel projet PENSEZ-VOUS sera construit en premier? La nuance est importante, puisqu'il ne s,agit pas de préférences personnelles, mais de considérations logiques basées sur le marché, les promoteurs, etc.

 

Merci!

 

Tu as raison la question est effectivement différente, (je ne l'avais pas remarqué), elle plus personnelle mais aussi moins spéculative puisqu'il est extrêmement difficile de prédire le projet qui pourrait répondre à la nouvelle demande. Ce pourrait même être à la rigueur un projet qui n'est même pas dans les cartons actuellement.

 

Ceci n'enlève rien à l'intérêt de ta question, que je te propose de soumettre dans un deuxième temps. On ne sait jamais ce qui pourrait en ressortir?