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I'm waiting for the usual suspects to put a negative spin to this article... 2015-11-26 Cape Breton Post.com MONTREAL - A new forecast by the Canadian government's lending agency says Quebec's highly diversified economy is on track for a 10 per cent increase in exports this year and eight per cent growth in 2016. Export Development Canada says the continued growth is being led by strong international demand for aircraft and parts, which accounts for nearly 14 per cent of the total value of Quebec exports. EDC says those exports are expected to rise 33 per cent this year and another 17 per cent in 2016. Metals, ores and other industrial products make up the largest sector of Quebec exports are expected to rise five per cent this year and by six per cent growth next year. But the EDC says within this sector, iron ore exports remain depressed as a result of continued price weaknesses and the closure of Cliffs Natural Resources' Bloom Lake mine. "Quebec has a very vibrant aircraft and parts sector and not just the big companies such as Bombardier, CAE and Pratt & Whitney, but also the many smaller firms that supply them," said EDC chief economist Peter Hall. "Demand from around the world, including from emerging markets, has been very strong in 2015, and this will continue in 2016." The EDC also says strong U.S. housing starts are creating demand for lumber and this is helping to drive six per cent growth in exports by Quebec's forestry sector in 2015 and four per cent growth in 2016. The increase in lumber exports also helps to offset a decline in newsprint and pulp exports caused by non-tariff trade barriers in several countries and the closure of several Quebec mills. "Quebec is one of Canada's more diversified export economies, both in terms of what it sells and where it sells," said Hall. "That said, most of the growth this year and next will come from the United States, where the economy is showing no signs of slowing down."
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http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/stevebergsman/westmount-canadas-beverly-hills According to wikipedia, Place Belvedere is considered the most expensive street on the whole island. I guess when there is only 10 homes on it, would make sense.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/03/greathomesanddestinations/03gh-househunting-1.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1299593719-+xlaQH3kS13uLe9aveRW4A
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Since everyone here loves Maclean's http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/10/14/the-good-bad-and-ugly/ What the hell is going on in BC? (and secondarily, Alberta, Red Deer? Seriously?!) I liked one of the comments:
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(Courtesy of CBC Montreal)
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China’s Stock Market Passes US as Leading Indicator Published: Wednesday, 4 Aug 2010 | 12:43 PM ET By: John Melloy Executive Producer, Fast Money China may be the second biggest economy in the world behind the US, but it is No. 1 in terms of influence over global stock markets, analysts said. “The Chinese equity market has shown signs of ‘leading’ global equity markets at turning points over the past three years,” wrote Geoffrey Dennis, Citigroup’s emerging markets strategist. “As a result, the 13 percent rally in the Shanghai Composite since early-July has been a major support for improved overall global sentiment over the past month.” It’s only natural China’s stock market would take a leading role following structural changes such as a jump in listings and the allowance of short sales. After all, the economic influence speaks for itself. Among other things, China is the biggest consumer of energy products, accounts for 70 percent of iron ore demand, and in 2009, became the No. 1 auto market, according to analysts’ reports. The Shanghai Composite Index has led the US market back from its 2010 low. It’s no coincidence that the leading US stocks during this comeback have come from the stocks in the industrial and raw material industries such as Caterpillar [CAT 71.56 -0.40 (-0.56%) ] and Freeport-McMoRan [FCX 74.61 0.54 (+0.73%) ]. Ford [F 13.04 0.06 (+0.46%) ] shares are up 30 percent in one month. “China’s rapid growth in auto sales is merely a reflection of the rise of middle class consumption patterns,” wrote Marshall Adkins, Raymond James energy analyst. “Add in increasing Chinese trucking, petrochemical and aviation consumption, and total Chinese oil demand growth in 2011 should be well north of 500,000 barrels per day and could drive over half of the global oil demand growth next year.” It’s no coincidence then that oil topped $80 this week before retreating today. The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index [FXI 41.95 -0.08 (-0.19%) ], an ETF traded here on the NYSE, is supposed to be a direct play on the Chinese market, but it has underperformed China’s local market over the past month. The ETF contains only the large Chinese stocks that are listed as ADRs on US exchanges. What this data shows is that you may be better off buying a US index fund, industrial stocks or a broader emerging market ETF if you believe China is going higher. Citigroup sees the Chinese stock market rising five to 15 percent higher by the end of the year as fears of an economic slowdown are priced in. "Based on a 'no double-dip' scenario, solid growth in emerging markets, low interest rates 'for longer' and attractive valuations, we remain bullish on emerging market for the long-term, including Chinese equities," wrote Citi's Dennis. The closing bell of the New York Stock Exchange used to ripple through the rest of the world, dictating trading in Australia, Asia and Europe that followed it. No longer. The US traders’ day may be decided before he or she even wakes up. http://www.cnbc.com/id/38558580
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(Courtesy of The Financial Post) It is pretty easy you sign up with your credit card or debit and few days later you get your gold delivered to your front door I read somewhere else you can buy up to $6000 CDN worth of Gold per day so almost 6 ounces. Scotia Mocatta
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depuis mon hotel a phildelphie, j'ai decider de jetter un oeil sur espn360.com, ce service qui permet d'ecouter en direct ou "on demand", en hd, a peu pres n'importe quel evenement sportif sur la planete. donc, je suis aller sur le site, et j'ai cliquer "categories". voici me choix: euh .. trouvez l'erreur ?
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(Courtesy of CNW)
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Economy Shed 598,000 Jobs in January Article Tools Sponsored By By EDMUND L. ANDREWS Published: February 6, 2009 WASHINGTON — The United States lost almost 600,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent, its highest level in more than 16 years, the Labor Department said Friday. It was the biggest monthly job loss since the economy tipped into a recession more than a year ago, and it was even worse than most forecasters had been predicting. In addition, the government revised the estimates for previous months to include another 400,000 job losses. For December, the government revised the job loss to 577,000 compared with an initial reading of 524,000. Over all, it said, the nation has lost 3.6 million jobs since it slipped into a recession in December 2007. “Businesses are panicked and fighting for survival and slashing their payrolls,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “I think we’re trapped in a very adverse, self-reinforcing cycle. The downturn is intensifying, and likely to intensify further unless policy makers respond aggressively.” Despite the jobless number, Wall Street opened strongly with all three major exchanges up more than 1.5 percent. As in previous months, employers in January slashed their payrolls in almost every industry except health care Manufacturers eliminated 207,000 jobs, more than in any year since 1982. The construction industry eliminated 111,000 jobs. And retailers, who were wrapping up their worst holiday shopping season in years, eliminated 45,000 jobs. One modest exception to the bad news was in workers’ wages, which have thus far not reflected the dramatic plunge in employment. Hour earnings edged up to $18.46, up 5 cents, and average weekly earnings climbed $614.72, up $1.67. But over all, the new data reinforced the impression of an economy that has become increasingly trapped a vicious circle slumping consumer demand, falling business investment, rising unemployment and mounting losses in the banking system. Christina D. Romer, head of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, said the report reinforced the need for Washington to acted quickly on a economic stimulus package. “If we fail to act,” Ms. Romer said, “we are likely to lose millions more jobs and the unemployment rate could reach double digits.” Although the United States officially slipped into a recession in December 2007, the decline was erratic and temporarily disguised by the impact of the emergency tax-rebate last spring. Since September, analysts say, economic activity suddenly plunged on almost every front. The monthly pace of job losses shot up to about 500,000 a month for the last three months of 2008, and the new report offered no hint that bottom is in sight. Last week, the number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims reached a 26-year high, with 626,000 filling out initial applications. “This is a horror show we’re watching,” said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a left-of-center economic research organization in Washington. “By every measure available-loss of employment and hours, rise of unemployment, shrinkage of the employment to population rate- this recession is steeper than any recession of the last forty years, including the harsh recession of the early 1980s.” Most forecasters had predicted that the economy would lose about 540,000 in January. Instead, the Labor Department estimated that 598,000 jobs disappeared. To be sure, monthly payroll numbers are subject to big revisions in the months that follow. But most other indicators of the job market had been trending worse as well. Major retailers, rocked by one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in memory, have been shutting stores and laying of armies of workers in recent weeks. On Thursday, the nation’s retailers reported that sales fell 1.6 percent in January, the fourth consecutive month of steep sales declines. And in sign that the country’s slowdown continues to reach beyond its borders, Canada, America’s largest trading partner, reported Friday that its unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent in January, from 6.7 percent in December. In Washington, Friday’s gloomy job report put more pressure on Congress to pass an economic stimulus bill. The House passed a bill last week that would provide more than $800 billion in spending and tax cuts. In the Senate, still bogged down by objections from Republicans, lawmakers were hoping to be able to muster enough votes to pass a measure on Friday “Today’s unemployment numbers are even worse than we thought,” said Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who leads the House Financial Services Committee. “If anything can persuade Congressional Republicans to stop their hyper partisan sniping at the recovery package, these disastrous employment numbers should be it.” For comparison, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in January 2008. But some analysts contend that the current unemployment rate of 7.6 percent understates the labor market’s problems because the percentage of adults participating in the labor force has slumped in recent years, and those people are not listed as “unemployed.” Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, estimated that if the labor force participation rate today was as high as it was when President Bush took office, the unemployment rate would be 9.4 percent. Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said the government had become the only source of energy left to break the cycle of slumping demand for goods and falling production. “The public sector needs to act,” Mr. Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients. “It needs to prevent an endless spiral of attempts to increase saving, leading to reduced spending, leading to reduced incomes, leading to further attempts to raise savings, and so on.” “We remain firmly of the view that the package now in Congress is the bare minimum required to slow the shrinkage of the economy over the next year.” Many economists expect that the economy will continue to contract until July at the very least, but at a slowing pace in the second quarter. That would make it the longest recession since the 1930s, outlasting the two record-holders, the mid-1970s and early 1980s downturns. Each of these recessions lasted 16 months. The current recession, which started in December 2007, would reach that milestone in April. The Federal Reserve continues to pump money into the financial system at a furious pace. Since September, the central bank has more than doubled its reserves, from $900 billion to more than $2 trillion, by literally creating new money. The Fed has used some of that money to help bail out financial institutions, from Citigroup and Bank of America to the American International Group. It has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into new lending programs, stepping in for banks and other financial institutions to buy up a widening array of corporate debt. Later this month, the Fed will begin a $200 billion program, in conjunction with the Treasury, to finance consumer debt ranging from car loans and credit card debt to student loans. But analysts say that the big problem is not a shortage of money, but a shortage of demand for products by businesses and consumers. As a result, banks are overloaded with excess reserves, made available by the Fed, which they are often simply parking at the Fed. _________________________________________________________________________ Les Américains payent le gros prix pour les banquiers de Walt Street, je n`ai pas de pitié pour eux, ils ont plongé le monde en crise, en ce sens, ils méritent grandement les conséquences...
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Avison Young Montreal | 2008 Review and 2009 Forecast | 2008 In Review At the start of 2008, a strong Canadian dollar negatively impacted the province’s export industry. However, Montreal still posted positive economic growth of 1.7% for the year.2008 was a challenging year for the Montreal economy. The combination of a strong Canadian dollar for most of the year and the recent financial crisis in the United States negatively impacted the province’s export industry. Quebec’s economy is positioned in industrial sectors that are lagging or in a slump, such as the clothing, forestry, furniture and manufacturing industries. However, despite all this, Montreal still posted positive economic growth of 1.7% in 2008. Employment grew by 1.3% in the year and is anticipated to increase by another 1.5% in 2009. Consumer spending remained high and has contributed tremendously to economic growth. Office Engineering firms, many of whom are expanding to support major infrastructure projects in the province, spurred demand for office space. Downtown office vacancy closed the year at 5.4%, a significant drop from 6.2% at the end of 2007 and 9% at the end of 2006. The decrease in vacancyrates in the downtown market was accompanied by only a slight increase in rental rates. The suburban office vacancy rate has remained stable over the past four years, and closed the year at 13.1%. In 2008, 400,000 square feet (sq. ft.) of space was absorbed in the market, significantly lower than the 2007 absorption of 1.37 million sq. ft. Absorption of office space has been modest due to lack of quality space. Certainly, what is left of quality office space in downtown Montreal is quickly being absorbed, and options for tenants are becoming increasingly limited. Industrial Montreal’s manufacturing sector has been strongly affected by the rise in the value of the Canadian dollar. As a result, the industrial market has moved away from manufacturing to logistics and distribution type industries that drove demand for industrial space in Montreal. These types of companies require smaller spaces with greater clear heights. Consequently, vacancy rates increased for large spaces of 100,000 sq. ft. and more, whereas spaces between 15,000 and 25,000 sq. ft. became increasingly more difficult to find. Buildings with clear heights of 24 feet are in great demand and have an extremely low vacancy rate of approximately 1%. The rental rates for these buildings have therefore increased. Limited availability of appropriate space motivated tenants to construct built–to-suit projects that provide the amenities they require. Many of the older, more obsolete buildings are being demolished or completely renovated by developers. Retail Substantial consumer demand in Montreal created an active retail market in 2008, and retail sales rose by 5.5% in the year. In the downtown core’s central area, rental rates have quadrupled and vacancies are nonexistent. Rental rates closed the year at between $200 to $215 psf at the corner of Ste-Catherine and Peel Streets. Newcomers to Ste-Catherine Street include Apple Computer’s first Montreal retail location at 1321 Ste-Catherine Street West and H&M at the corner of Peel Street, with 20,000 sq. ft. Investment The financial crisis in the United States has softened the investment market in Montreal. Assets offered for sale require a longer exposure period. Investors using financial leverage as the basis for investment are having trouble completing acquisitions, thus diminishing the occurrence of successful transactions. As a result capitalization rates increased by approximately 25 basis points this year. Despite this, many successful transactions were completed earlier in 2008. Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. invested approximately $100 million to acquire a 50% interest in 1981 McGill College, together with a major financial partner that acquired the remaining 50%. Cominar REIT acquired 2001 McGill College for $165 million. Canderel and Proment sold the first Phase of the Bell Campus for $185 million to a German real estate investment fund. 2009 Forecast Office Montreal is the only city in Canada with no significant downtown office construction projects. Until recently, large tenants have been able to find suitable alternatives that were much less expensive than proposed new projects. However, as vacancy rates continue to plunge, the availability of quality space will become even more limited. Tenants will soon have no choice but to consider one of the new construction projects. Expect to see the beginning of one or two office construction projects in 2009. Potential office developments include Canderel’s development of 1201-1215 Phillips Square, Hines’ development of 900 de Maisonneuve, Magil Laurentienne’s office or mixed-use building at 701 University and Westcliff’s development of Phase 2 of Place de la Cité Internationale. Quebec’s 2008 budget aimed to stimulate business investment by eliminating tax on capital for manufacturers and by offering a tax credit for the purchase of manufacturing equipment and a tax credit for new information technology companies. Accordingly, the Province of Quebec agreed to provide investment banking giant Morgan Stanley with $60 million in tax credits for opening a new global technical support centre in Montreal. Morgan Stanley is currently searching for office space in anticipation of bringing staff levels to 500 or more. Phase 1 of the new Bell campus on Nun’s Island was officially opened in August of this year. Phase 2 is anticipated to be ready for occupancy in February 2009. It will comprise 235,000 sq. ft. of office space and amenities, bringing the total to 840,000 sq. ft. A third phase is also planned, thus bringing the campus total to approximately 1.4 million sq. ft. The downtown core office market has absorbed a large percentage of the space formerly occupied by Bell. Retail In 2009, Canadians will likely be faced with weakening job prospects, tighter credit conditions and economic uncertainty, thus leading to moderated consumer spending. Retail sales are expected to grow by only 3.5% in 2009, as opposed to the 5.5% growth seen in 2008. Demand for space on Ste-Catherine Street will slow dramatically in 2009. As a result, retail vacancy rates are anticipated to increase and if retail sales continue to lag, we expect to see some retailers walking away from stores that do not perform. This will give tenants the upper hand in lease negotiations. Industrial The diminishing strength of the Canadian dollar will benefit the export industry in 2009. Demand for industrial space will likely come from the logistics, distribution and aerospace industries. We anticipate the overall vacancy rate to increase, as more space comes to market and older buildings that lack required ceiling heights remain empty. However, the vacancy rate for smaller buildings with adequate clear heights will remain low. Rental rates for the older, more obsolete buildings will decrease and rates for newer, smaller spaces with adequate ceiling heights will remain flat. Industrial construction activity will continue to slow in 2009 as a result of financing difficulties coupled with high land and construction costs. However, industrial growth will continue off the island of Montreal due to lower land costs and higher availability. Investment Banks have tightened credit significantly and consequently, financing is more difficult to obtain. Borrowers that lack liquidity will likely have difficulty acquiring assets. This, however, will leave the door open for REITs and international investors with capital at their disposal. In 2009, we anticipate a general slowdown in the investment market. The majority of investment sales deals in 2009 will be concentrated on a few portfolio deals; mostly smaller transactions involving retail and warehouse properties. Prices for commercial real estate product will likely decrease and cap rates will increase by 50 to 100 basis points. http://www.avisonyoung.com/library/pdf/National/forecast2009.pdf Également présent dans la section "Ressources". -
Resale housing market drops 2% in Montreal The Gazette; Reuters Published: 4 hours ago Montreal's resale housing market declined two per cent in 2008, the Greater Montreal Real Estate Board said yesterday. For the first nine months of the year, 8,463 properties changed hands in the Montreal region. Property listings increased 12 per cent compared with the same period a year ago. The average selling price increase was five per cent this past quarter, vs. four per cent in the second quarter and six per cent in the first quarter. "Despite the rise in listings observed over the last two quarters, the high demand is such that the resale market remains favourable to sellers," Michel Beausejour, the board's CEO, said
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Daimler to close St. Thomas, Ont., plant The Canadian Press October 14, 2008 at 1:30 PM EDT ST. THOMAS, Ont. — Daimler AG is ending truck production at plants in southwestern Ontario and Oregon and cutting 2,300 jobs as the German automaker tries to cope with depressed demand for its heavy vehicles. The closure of the St. Thomas assembly plant, announced Tuesday, will see the loss of another 700 jobs and is the latest blow to hit Canada's manufacturing sector, centred in Ontario and Quebec. A local business leader in St. Thomas said people are “just reeling” from the planned shutdown in the community, which has already seen cuts at a local Ford Canada auto assembly plant and recent layoffs at Magna-owned Formet Industries and 3M in London. “It spins through the entire region,” said Bob Hammersley, general manager of the St. Thomas and District Chamber of Commerce. Videos 00:01:42 GM closes plants in Wisconsin, Michigan General Motors Corp.'s efforts to hoard cash and outlast a prolonged economic slump claimed the jobs of more than 2,700 workers Monday “About 700 workers are directly affected,” but a “lot of suppliers will be affected by the news. The jobs that are going to be lost are not just jobs that are in the city of St. Thomas, but they extend through the entire region.” Blue-collar industries in Canada have seen thousands of jobs wiped out because of the restructuring auto industry, the high value of the loonie in the last two years and the slump in the United States economy, which has cut demand for Canadian-built cars and trucks. In recent months, General Motors, Deere & Co., Volvo and other industrial companies have cut jobs and announced plans to shut down plants in southern Ontario. Earlier Tuesday, Daimler announced in Germany that its North American truck division will drop its Sterling brand and end truck production in St. Thomas next March, when the company's current agreement with the Canadian Auto Workers union expires. However, the German company said it will make additions to its Freightliner and Western Star truck operations to cover the markets for those brands. Daimler Trucks North America will also close its Portland, Ore. truck plant in June 2010, when current contracts there expire. The company said Western Star production will shift to a plant in Santiago, Mexico, while Freightliner-brand military vehicles will be produced at one of its factories in the Carolinas by mid-2010. Daimler said about 2,300 workers at St. Thomas and Portland will be affected by mid-2010.That includes previously announced layoffs of 720 workers at the Ontario plant, whose jobs will go next month. The company also plans to cut its administrative workforce by about 1,200 — with more than half of those directly related to the Sterling brand. A voluntary separation program will be offered. Ken Lewenza, president of the Canadian Auto Workers union, said the plant closure will mean the loss of 1,300 jobs, including workers who will be laid off Nov. 4, and will deal a huge blow to St. Thomas. “This is another example of the loss of hundreds of highly skilled, family supporting jobs which cannot be replaced by the slew of recently created part-time jobs,” said Mr. Lewenza. Last week, Statistics Canada reported creation of 107,000 jobs in the economy in September, but nine in 10 of those were part time. Daimler said in a statement that the truck restructuring plans were drawn up “in response to continuing depressed demand across the industry and structural changes in the company's core markets.” “We are confident that this forward-looking strategy for (Daimler Trucks North America) is the right measure to address the challenges in the North American market,” said Andreas Renschler, the Daimler board member responsible for the truck operation. During a telephone conference call, Mr. Renschler stressed that “we can't wait for a government bailout with taxpayer money.” “We have to act now,” he said. “And that's exactly what we're doing.” The St. Thomas cuts are in addition to the 720 workers already scheduled to be laid off next month with the elimination of one of the plant's last two shifts. Daimler laid off 600 people at the St. Thomas plant last year when the first of three shifts was cut. The plant produces a range of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and once employed more than 2,200 people. With the U.S. economy headed towards recession, demand for heavy trucks used for shipping and other purposes has dropped sharply. Mr. Hammersley said despite the bad layoff news, there are “other dimensions of transportation employment” that St. Thomas could pursue. “We could look at aerospace, we could look at aircraft manufacturing, rail car manufacturing — not just things that are on rubber tires.” Daimler said the truck unit expects to strengthen its position on the North American commercial vehicle market by “concentrating the company's considerable technical and marketing resources on a more focused model lineup.” The company said it expects the changes to improve the truck unit's earnings by $900-million (U.S.) a year by 2011. Daimler shares rose 4.9 per cent at €27.49 euros in trading on the Frankfurt stock market.
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1,000 new homes for poor in Montreal The Gazette Published: 1 hour ago Quebec announced yesterday it will build 1,000 new social housing units in Montreal, part of a $132-million investment for 2,000 units in Quebec announced in the 2008-2009 budget. "For the past five years, our government has increased its actions to improve conditions for those who are less fortunate in Quebec," said Nathalie Normandeau, minister of municipal affairs. Affordable housing is in high demand in Montreal, with only a 1.4-per-cent vacancy rate in 2007 for units with at least three bedrooms that rent for less than $700 per month.
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Cooling housing market exposed to crash Prices, demand drop after record growth Alia McMullen, Financial Post; Canwest News Service Published: Friday, August 08, 2008 Edmonton's housing market is estimated to be more than 10 per cent overvalued.Ed Kaiser, The Journal, FileEdmonton's housing market is estimated to be more than 10 per cent overvalued. TORONTO - A big decline in commodity prices could spell disaster for Canada's housing market, which already appears to have entered a "sustained downturn," David Wolf, an economist at Merrill Lynch Canada, warned on Thursday. He said while the risk of a housing market crash was small, an "outright bust" in commodity prices would make the scenario "a rather more serious threat." The recent trickle of data has shown a significant slowdown in the country's housing market, following its record pace of growth. Demand has eased, supply continues to creep up, credit conditions remain tight, and house-price growth has turned flat, with declines in some regions. The value of building permits in June fell a seasonally adjusted 5.3 per cent from the previous month, indicating that construction activity in the coming months would likely be lower, Statistics Canada figures showed Thursday. The data is notoriously volatile, but the trend rate of growth for residential building has declined since the beginning of the year. "Canada's housing market is entering a sustained downturn, in our view," Wolf said. "It does look like Canadian houses finally got too expensive, and builders too aggressive, for the underlying demand environment." He estimated that markets with the strongest price growth in recent years, such as Regina, Saskatoon, Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Sudbury, and Montreal, were all more than 10 per cent overvalued. On a national basis, Wolf predicts house price growth to remain flat. Merrill Lynch expects commodity prices to moderate over the medium term, a scenario that would aid in the housing market downturn but not cause an outright bust. Others, such as CIBC, have a more bullish forecast for commodities, namely oil, expecting prices to continue to rise. This would continue to support Canada's terms of trade by bringing in higher export revenue relative to the amount spent on imports. But Wolf said the risk of a housing crash would become "a serious threat" if the recent correction in commodities continued because it could cause the terms of trade to deteriorate. The price of light crude has fallen about 18 per cent since peaking at a record high of $147.27 US a barrel on July 11 continued. Light crude for September delivery settled at $120.02 US a barrel in New York on Thursday. "The takeoff in commodity prices since 2002 has driven an enormous improvement in Canada's terms of trade, accounting for much of the strong growth in Canadian national income that has, in turn, provided the fundamental underpinning for the housing market boom," Wolf said. A Bank of Canada working paper by senior analyst Hajime Tomura released earlier this year argued that a decline in the terms of trade would likely cause house prices to fall. It said that "if households are uncertain about the duration of an improvement in the terms of trade, then house prices will abruptly drop when the terms of trade stop improving."
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Calgary population surge shows signs of slowing DAWN WALTON From Tuesday's Globe and Mail July 22, 2008 at 4:17 AM EDT CALGARY — Calgary's stunning population growth continues, according to the city's latest census, but boomtown is starting to show signs of a slowdown. Fewer people are pulling up stakes to move to the country's oil and gas capital, and the city's housing frenzy, which saw unprecedented bidding wars and zero vacancy rates, is a thing of the past, according to figures released yesterday. But with the addition of 22,950 new residents in the 12 months preceding April of 2008, bringing the city's population to 1,042,892, it's too early to say the boom is going bust. "Calgary still remains the trendsetter in the nation in terms of not only population growth, but those who are moving to our city," Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier told reporters yesterday. Affordable housing is finally easier to find in Calgary, as supply starts to catch up with demand. Chris Bolin for The Globe and Mail Enlarge Image Affordable housing is finally easier to find in Calgary, as supply starts to catch up with demand. (Chris Bolin for The Globe and Mail) The Globe and Mail The 2.3-per-cent population increase was fuelled by the birth of about 27 babies each day and about 34 people moving here daily. The pace is still slightly higher than the 10-year average, but 2007-08 marked the second consecutive year population growth did not amount to what the mayor called a "phenomenal" year in 2005-06, when the city added 35,681 new residents. In 2006, the city surpassed one million residents, two years earlier than projected. But as more and more people were lured to Calgary amid an acute labour shortage, newcomers arrived to find apartments converted to condominiums and home prices out of reach for many first-time buyers. Calgary's latest census figures show that affordable housing is finally easier to find. "[The market] couldn't maintain the frantic and hectic pace through 2008," said Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Apartment Association. "The whole housing industry had gone crazy." According to the census, the city's vacancy rate increased to more than 2.2 per cent in April, 2008, up from almost 1.5 per cent 12 months earlier. Meanwhile, the number of housing units - both existing residences and those under construction - jumped to 432,997 from 420,311. "After such a record growth in the last few years, you're finally starting to see supply catch up with demand," Mr. Bronconnier said. Still, Calgary's population growth continues at the fringes of the city where new suburbs are being built. The city faces about $7.5-billion to keep up with infrastructure demands over the next decade. "I think growth is a good thing in a lot of ways as opposed to a bad thing," said David Watson, the city's general manager for planning, assessment and development, "The challenge is of course the farther out you go there's more and more requirements for infrastructure." http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080722.wcalgary22/BNStory/National/home
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Je pense que ça va vous faire plaisir... LORI MCLEOD Globe and Mail Update April 16, 2008 at 1:43 PM EDT Montreal has edged ahead of midtown Manhattan to create an all-Canadian list of the top five office rental markets in North America in the first quarter of 2008, according to a study released Wednesday by real estate brokerage Cushman Wakefield & LePage. Canada's five largest cities had the lowest office vacancy rates of the 15 major leasing markets in North America in the first three months of the year, according to Cushman Wakefield's data. Downtown Montreal took fifth spot on the list with a vacancy rate of 5.8 per cent, but posted the largest year-over-year drop at 3.5 percentage points due to strong demand and a lack of new supply. This caused it to squeak by midtown Manhattan, the strongest market in the United States, with an office vacancy rate of 6 per cent. “Montreal has experienced years of virtual stagnation in the office leasing market. But slow and steady economic growth and a lack of new development over the past decade have transitioned Montreal from a tenant market to a landlord market,” Colum Bastable, president and chief executive officer of Cushman & Wakefield, said in a statement. At a vacancy rate of just 2.6 per cent, Vancouver had the tightest downtown office rental market of the 15 cities included in the study. This was followed by Calgary at 3.6 per cent, Toronto at 3.9 per cent, Ottawa at 4.1 per cent and Montreal at 5.8 per cent. The city with the highest downtown office vacancy rate was Dallas at 28.7 per cent, far greater than the next on the list, Los Angeles, at 13.5 per cent. The sharpest rise in vacancy rate occurred in Calgary, growing to 4.5 per cent in the first quarter from a low of 1.4 per cent in the same period of 2007. Vacancies remained tight in Class A downtown buildings in the city at a rate of just 1.8 per cent. Despite a weakening provincial economy and three new office towers under construction, Toronto's vacancy rates continue to decline, Mr. Bastable said. The study also measured vacancy rates in suburban areas, where Canada's market was again tighter than that of the U.S. Toronto's suburbs had the lowest vacancy rate of these markets in the first quarter at 7.2 per cent, followed by those of Calgary at 7.4 per cent, Ottawa at 7.5 per cent, Vancouver at 9.3 per cent and Montreal at 11.2 per cent. The suburbs of Dallas had the highest vacancy rate at 21.5 per cent, followed by those of central New Jersey at 20.3 per cent and Chicago at 19 per cent. “All of Canada's major markets are well positioned to weather an economic downturn. Years of conservative and prudent development, along with low interest rates, will work to keep supply and demand in relative equilibrium even as the economy and demand slacken,” Mr. Bastable said. source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...tory/Business/
