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(Courtesy of Canadian Business)
Quebec exports to jump 9% in 2015: EDC economist FRANÇOIS SHALOM, MONTREAL GAZETTE More from François Shalom, Montreal Gazette Published on: November 27, 2014Last Updated: November 27, 2014 8:00 AM EST The U.S. housing market will spur export growth in Quebec, says Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada The U.S. housing market will spur export growth in Quebec, says Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada AFP/Getty Images SHARE ADJUST COMMENT PRINT Smile wide, Quebec exporters. Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada, says that two key ingredients will brighten your lives for the next year or three: the U.S. economy and the weak Canadian dollar. “These two things are coming together to make this year and next very positive for Quebec exports,” Hall said in an interview. “The reason it’s a particularly good story is that Quebec does not have a very strong internal economy. Consumption is going to be weak because of high indebtedness levels.” The good part of the EDC forecast, made public Thursday, is that just as household debt is cutting into the consumption economy, the trade sector is taking over and is set to boom, compensating — and then some — for the spending shortfall. “So we’ve got to be the luckiest people on Earth,” Hall said. Traditional resource sectors like mining and forestry as well as aerospace will be key drivers of the export resurgence. And that resurgence will in turn be driven principally by the U.S. housing market, which has mounted a remarkable comeback from the ominous recession of 2008. “The rate of (U.S.) housing construction has doubled where it was during the crisis,” said Hall. “And the best is yet to come. They’re building now at the rate of 1 million (housing) units a year. But the economy itself is generating (demand for) 1.4 million new households every year. They’re 400,000 units a year behind where they need to be just to keep pace with basic demand.” “So the very minimum you can expect over the next two or three years of growth inside this market is 40 per cent.” “That’s very good news for Quebec lumber firms and for everything else that goes into houses being built — copper piping, wiring, 2-by-4s, asphalt, OSB (particle board used for flooring, roofing and walls) — you name it.” “And it doesn’t stop there. Once the house is completed, there’s all the stuff that goes into it; washers, dryers, stoves, fridges, floorings, furnishings.” Again, he noted, a major opportunity for metal producers, notably Quebec aluminum smelters. It all adds up to a projected eight-per-cent jump for Quebec exports this year and another nine per cent in 2015, he said. Aerospace exports will surge 10 per cent next year, thanks to the weak Canadian dollar and good demand internationally. “Quebec’s Bombardier is the major beneficiary of these positive international trends, and with their CSeries line expected to enter into service in late 2015, it will be a huge boon for Quebec’s aerospace industry for years to come,” said Hall. He praised Quebec’s comprehensive overhaul of government spending under Premier Philippe Couillard as vital to the future of the province’s economy. “It’s essential to ensuring competitiveness for the future. If you don’t have fiscal sustainability, it means a higher future tax liability and an uncertain policy environment. “We’ve long learned that this is very, very positive for the future economy. :thumbsup::thumbsup:
I'm waiting for the usual suspects to put a negative spin to this article... 2015-11-26 Cape Breton Post.com MONTREAL - A new forecast by the Canadian government's lending agency says Quebec's highly diversified economy is on track for a 10 per cent increase in exports this year and eight per cent growth in 2016. Export Development Canada says the continued growth is being led by strong international demand for aircraft and parts, which accounts for nearly 14 per cent of the total value of Quebec exports. EDC says those exports are expected to rise 33 per cent this year and another 17 per cent in 2016. Metals, ores and other industrial products make up the largest sector of Quebec exports are expected to rise five per cent this year and by six per cent growth next year. But the EDC says within this sector, iron ore exports remain depressed as a result of continued price weaknesses and the closure of Cliffs Natural Resources' Bloom Lake mine. "Quebec has a very vibrant aircraft and parts sector and not just the big companies such as Bombardier, CAE and Pratt & Whitney, but also the many smaller firms that supply them," said EDC chief economist Peter Hall. "Demand from around the world, including from emerging markets, has been very strong in 2015, and this will continue in 2016." The EDC also says strong U.S. housing starts are creating demand for lumber and this is helping to drive six per cent growth in exports by Quebec's forestry sector in 2015 and four per cent growth in 2016. The increase in lumber exports also helps to offset a decline in newsprint and pulp exports caused by non-tariff trade barriers in several countries and the closure of several Quebec mills. "Quebec is one of Canada's more diversified export economies, both in terms of what it sells and where it sells," said Hall. "That said, most of the growth this year and next will come from the United States, where the economy is showing no signs of slowing down."