Marché immobilier résidentiel de Montréal : actualités

[Le Roach]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/real-estate-receiverships-on-the-rise-as-projects-stall-1.6751074

 

Could this explain the alarming quiet on Mtl building sites?

[mtlurb]

Réaction à la loi 51 qui a été déposé aujourd'hui par la CAQ.

 

RÉACTION : Le décloisonnement des métiers de la construction ne va pas assez loin

1 février 2024

 

3 minutes

 

Montréal, le 1er février 2024 – Le projet de loi 51 déposé aujourd’hui par le ministre du Travail Jean Boulet manque d’ambition, selon un chercheur de l’Institut économique de Montréal.

« La rigidité des métiers de la construction au Québec fait en sorte qu’il faut bien plus de travailleurs pour mener à bien chaque projet », explique Gabriel Giguère, analyste en politiques publiques à l’IEDM. « Le décloisonnement proposé par le ministre Boulet représente un très petit pas, alors que le défi à relever est énorme. »

Le Québec compte 25 métiers à certification obligatoire en construction, contre seulement sept en Ontario.

Le projet de loi prévoit permettre aux travailleurs ayant un statut de compagnon d’effectuer des tâches présentement réservées à un autre métier que le leur, dans la mesure où ces tâches ne relèvent pas de la structure, de l’opération de machinerie lourde ou de spécialités telles la plomberie et l’électricité.

Le projet de loi maintient les exigences de formation et de certification pour les 25 métiers à certification obligatoire, freinant l’entrée de nouveaux travailleurs dans les métiers qui, ailleurs au pays, ne requièrent aucune formation particulière.

Le chercheur questionne notamment la pertinence d’imposer une formation de 900 heures échelonnées sur huit mois pour devenir peintre en bâtiment, par exemple, dans un contexte où il manque près de 10 000 travailleurs dans l’industrie.

« Ce n’est pas avec la réforme du ministre Boulet qu’on réussira à bâtir le million de logements nécessaires pour revenir à des niveaux de prix abordables! », s’exclame M. Giguère. « Le gouvernement doit retourner à la table à dessins et proposer quelque chose de plus ambitieux, car le projet de loi actuel en fait bien trop peu. »

Selon la Société canadienne d’hypothèques et de logement, le Québec aurait besoin de 1,19 million de nouveaux logements d’ici 2030 afin de retrouver les niveaux d’abordabilité observés en 2004.

* * *

L’IEDM est un think tank indépendant sur les politiques publiques qui compte des bureaux à Montréal et Calgary. Par ses publications, ses apparitions dans les médias et ses services consultatifs aux décideurs politiques, l’IEDM stimule les débats et les réformes des politiques publiques en se basant sur les principes établis de l’économie de marché et sur l’entrepreneuriat.

https://www.iedm.org/fr/reaction-le-decloisonnement-des-metiers-de-la-construction-ne-va-pas-assez-loin/

[ToxiK]

⬆️

Et les syndicats pensent que ça va trop loin...

 

[mtlurb]

5 minutes ago, ToxiK said:

⬆️

Et les syndicats pensent que ça va trop loin...

 

Tout va trop loin pour eux, sauf si on augmente les cotisations syndicales lol

[ToxiK]

il y a 24 minutes, mtlurb a dit :

Tout va trop loin pour eux, sauf si on augmente les cotisations syndicales lol

Et encore...  C'est peut-être plus payant d'avoir des employés payés à ne rien faire pendant que d'autres travaillent.  Ça fait en sorte que chaque construction a besoin d'un nombre supérieur d'heures de travail payées (avec cotisation...).  Si on a besoin de 10% de plus d'employés pour faire un même travail, c'est 10% de plus d'heures payées et les cotisations suivent.  Et tout ça sans améliorer du tout les conditions de travail des employés (et au détriment des méchants capitalistes), et sans augmenter significativement les dépenses des syndicats.

Et si en prime on montait les cotisations, les syndicats seraient aux anges...

[mtlurb]

Le chef de la banque du Canada dit ce qu'on sait déjà ici sur le forum... Je pense qu'on se répète pas mal là.... manque un peu d'action de la part des différents paliers de gouvernement.... il ne reste plus que Jésus Christ et Grandi pour répéter les mêmes choses lol 

 

Macklem says monetary policy can’t solve housing inflation, urges governments to help boost home construction

The Bank of Canada governor is urging all levels of government to work together to boost the supply of homes across the country, arguing that the rising cost of housing, which has become the biggest driver of overall inflation, can’t be addressed by monetary policy alone.

In a Thursday appearance before the House of Commons finance committee, Tiff Macklem was peppered with questions about housing affordability and the central bank’s own role in increasing shelter costs for many homeowners by pushing up mortgage rates.

“You’re not going to solve housing with low interest rates and you’re not going to solve it with high interest rates. We’ve tried both, and we’ve had high shelter price inflation,” he said.

“The durable solution is to increase the supply, and that includes both the supply of homes and the supply of purpose-built rental.”

Even as overall consumer price index inflation has declined – falling to 3.4 per cent in December from a 2022 peak of 8.1 per cent – shelter costs have continued to surge.

This is partly a result of the Bank of Canada’s own monetary policy tightening campaign, as higher interest rates push up monthly mortgage payments. Mortgage interest costs rose 28.6 per cent in December from the year before.

But rents have also been rising rapidly, jumping 7.7 per cent year-over-year in December, as brisk population growth driven by immigration has run into a long-standing shortage of rental units. And home prices, while dipping from 2022 highs, have not fallen as much as the central bank had expected.

Typically “as interest rates go up, you would see a decline in house prices,” senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers told the parliamentary committee on Thursday. “But because we have sort of a chronic, structural shortage of housing in Canada, we haven’t seen that sort of offset.”

Both Mr. Macklem and Ms. Rogers batted away questions about when the Bank of Canada will lower interest rates. Last week, the bank held its policy interest rate at 5 per cent for the fourth consecutive time. It dialled back its threats of additional rate hikes, but said that it was too early to start talking about easing monetary policy.

Bay Street analysts and financial markets are betting the central bank will start cutting rates in the first half of 2024, with most pointing to the June rate announcement as the mostly likely date. Earlier this week, former Bank of Canada deputy governor Paul Beaudry, who left the bank last summer, said he thought a July rate cut was more likely.

“We can’t put it on the calendar,” Mr. Macklem said Thursday. “We need to see how inflation evolves.”

The bank’s latest forecast sees annual CPI inflation hovering around 3 per cent until the middle of 2024, before dropping to 2.5 per cent by the end of the year, and back to the bank’s 2-per-cent target sometime next year.

A big part of getting inflation back under control will involve getting a handle on increasing shelter costs. But here, the central bank faces several dilemmas.

Lower interest rates will be a relief to homeowners with variable-rate mortgages and fixed-rate mortgages coming up for renewal. But any hint of rate cuts could spark another run-up in home prices. That happened last spring when the Bank of Canada first announced a “conditional pause” to monetary policy tightening, which ultimately contributed to the bank’s decision to hike interest rates two more times last summer.

High interest rates also discourage new home construction by increasing costs for developers and reducing demand for preconstruction sales. This is showing up in a decline in housing starts. In effect, the bank’s efforts to reduce demand in the short-run could have a negative impact on longer-term supply.

Mr. Macklem downplayed this dynamic, arguing that there was a worthwhile tradeoff, at least from the perspective of controlling inflation.

“Yes, there is an impact on the supply side,” he told members of Parliament, referring to higher interest rates. “Developers have pointed that out. But when we look at the sector as a whole, the impact on demand is much stronger than on the supply side.”

In the medium-term, governments at all levels – federal, provincial and municipal – need to do more to encourage home construction while avoiding policies that increase demand for housing, Mr. Macklem said.

“Things that improve supply will be particularly helpful in the current situation … speeding up permitting, taking some of the uncertainty out of the process, making it more predictable.”

Federal and provincial governments have announced several policy changes in recent months aimed at boosting construction. This includes cutting taxes on new purpose-built rental units and increasing funding available to builders by expanding Canada’s mortgage securitization system.

The federal government has also taken steps to reduce demand on rental housing by capping the number of international students permitted to study in Canada. Last week, Ottawa said it would approve around 360,000 undergraduate study permits in 2024, a 35-per-cent reduction from last year.

Mr. Macklem said in an interview with The Canadian Press last week that the cap “will help take a bit of pressure off rents going forward.”

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-macklem-says-monetary-policy-cant-solve-housing-inflation-urges/

[mtlurb]

Ooooops j'ai parlé trop vite, y a de l'action à Montréal!!!  🤣

 

Valérie Plante remanie son comité exécutif pour faire face à la crise du logement

Jeanne Corriveau

Photo: Christinne Muschi La Presse canadienne  La mairesse de Montréal, Valérie Plante, dit avoir voulu commencer l’année 2024 en mettant l’emphase sur les trois priorités de son administration, soit la crise du logement, le développement économique et les services aux citoyens, dont la propreté et la gestion des chantiers. 

Valérie Plante a procédé jeudi à un remaniement de son comité exécutif. Avec cet exercice, la mairesse souhaite accélérer la construction de logements. Des élus accèdent à ce club sélect parmi lesquels la mairesse de Côte-des-Neiges–Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Gracia Kasoki Katahwa.

Valérie Plante dit avoir voulu commencer l’année 2024 en mettant l’emphase sur les trois priorités de son administration, soit la crise du logement, le développement économique et les services aux citoyens, dont la propreté et la gestion des chantiers.

Le maire du Plateau-Mont-Royal, Luc Rabouin, qui avait été nommé l’automne dernier à la présidence du comité exécutif à la suite de la démission de Dominique Ollivier, continuera d’occuper ces fonctions. Il conserve aussi le développement économique et pilotera la « cellule facilitatrice » mise en place par l’administration pour accélérer l’octroi de permis délivrés par les arrondissements.

Le remaniement maintient dans leurs fonctions, outre Luc Rabouin, Benoit Dorais à l’habitation, Ericka Alneus à la culture, Marie-Andrée Mauger à l’environnement et la transition écologique, Sophie Mauzerolle aux transports et à la mobilité, Alain Vaillancourt à la sécurité publique, Émilie Thuillier aux infrastructures et Maja Vodanovic au dossier de l’eau. Josefina Blanco sera notamment responsable de la diversité et de l’inclusion sociale. Magda Popeanu prendra en charge le dossier de la performance organisationnelle, de la participation citoyenne et de la démocratie. De son côté, Caroline Bourgeois hérite des sports, d’Espace pour la vie, de la langue française et de l’Est de Montréal.

Robert Beaudry conservera ses fonctions comme responsable de l’urbanisme et de l’Office de consultation publique de Montréal (OCPM), mais se voit confier le dossier de l’itinérance. L’élu du district de Saint-Jacques, dans Ville-Marie, connaît bien cet enjeu puisqu’avant de se lancer en politique, il avait dirigé l’organisme du PAS de la rue. « Il sera à même de pouvoir mobiliser l’ensemble des partenaires et appliquer des solutions concrètes à un enjeu qui est fort complexe », a commenté Valérie Plante.

Le remaniement permettra d’accueillir Gracia Kasoki Katahwa qui prendra en charge les dossiers des ressources humaines et de la lutte au racisme. De son côté, la mairesse de Villeray–Saint-Michel–Parc-Extension, Laurence Lavigne Lalonde, effectuera un retour au comité exécutif et prendra en charge le dossier des grands parcs, du Mont-Royal et du parc Jean-Drapeau.

Pour sa part, la conseillère Despina Sourias deviendra conseillère associée à l’habitation et s’assurera de la salubrité et de la protection du parc de logements locatifs.

Éric Alan Caldwell quitte le comité exécutif, car la mairesse souhaite qu’il se consacre à la présidence du conseil d’administration de la Société de transport de Montréal (STM) compte tenu des enjeux liés au financement du transport collectif et des projets en cours, dont le prolongement de la ligne bleue. « La dernière année a été éprouvante pour les sociétés de transport », a souligné la mairesse.

Finalement, le maire de Rosemont–La Petite-Patrie assumera le rôle de leader de la majorité, prenant ainsi le relais d’Alex Norris.

Le chef de l’opposition, Aref Salem, n’a pas été impressionné par ce remaniement. « L’administration a connu plusieurs échecs, si on pense à l’OCPM, à l’augmentation des taxes exponentielle et à l’habitation. Les changements ne sont pas à la hauteur des attentes des Montréalais. On s’attendait à ce qu’il y ait vraiment un changement en profondeur, mais aujourd’hui, comme on l’a vu, à deux trois personnes près, le changement n’est vraiment pas là », a-t-il indiqué. Le dossier de l’habitation, qui traverse une crise majeure, demeure entre les mains de Benoit Dorais, a-t-il déploré.

https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/montreal/806446/valerie-plante-remanie-comite-executif-faire-face-crise-logement?

[mtlurb]

Re-oooooops... la ville prends action!! Elle protège plus de territories des méchants promoteurs. Ils iront construire ailleurs ...ailleurs où?? 

Et en même temps, protège un sport de riche... alliance inespérée 🤣

Et ils veulent de l'argent de Québec pour acheter encore plus de terrains pour les protéger des vilains promoteurs... lol monde à l'envers.

How bylaw changes will protect Montreal-area golf courses from development

Felicia Parrillo2:11

The Country Club of Montreal, an 18-hole golf course in Saint-Lambert, has been around for over a century.

It’s now also part of a sweeping interim control bylaw by the Montreal Metropolitan Community (CMM) that aims to protect golf courses in and around the greater Montreal area from future development.

“The town of Saint-Lambert owns two golf courses, a nine-hole and an 18-hole,” said Saint-Lambert Mayor Pascale Mongrain. “We’ve been wanting — and the citizens of our town have been asking — for permanent protection of those two big pieces of land.”

The Country Club of Montreal and Golf Saint-Lambert were added to the growing list of courses protected by the interim control bylaw.

They join eight others that are already included in the freeze. Those are Golf Beloeil, the Candiac Golf Club, Dorval Golf, the Mascouche Golf Club, the former Rosemère Golf Club, the Le Boisé Club in Terrebonne, Mascouche Golf, Ste-Rose Golf in Laval, and the Boucherville Golf Club.

Story continues below advertisement

Should golf courses be used as land for housing?

But the CMM announced Tuesday an amendment to the temporary bylaw — five of the courses will now be 70 per cent protected, at minimum.

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The other 30 per cent can be purchased by the municipality to develop.

“When I say development, it’s not necessarily housing or apartments, though the needs are huge,” said Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante. “It can be also for a development of a park, maybe a school, or other infrastructure.” 🤣

2:04 New fence blocks access to former Candiac golf course green space

Plante added there is nothing stopping the municipalities from buying 100 per cent of the land.

The CMM also reiterated its call to the province for more funding, so that it can provide cities with the money to buy land for conservation. 🤣

“Our program funds cities that want to buy a piece of land for conservation, so that money will serve to finance it,” CMM executive director Massimo Iezzoni said.

1:55 The City of Vaudreuil-Dorion adopts resolution to buy former golf course

The interim control bylaw now protects 460 hectares of green space.

Plante said it’s part of the overall goal of protecting 30 per cent of the metropolitan area by 2030.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10260672/golf-course-protection-land-development-conservation-montreal/

[mtlurb]

"Buyers Aren't Rushing": Luxury Home Sales Slip In Toronto, Montreal, Surge In Vancouver, Calgary

Single-family homes were the hot topic of luxury real estate in 2023, as buyers shied away from rising condo fees and high carrying costs.

Zoe Demarco

Canada’s luxury real estate markets experienced a relatively subdued 2023, as economic uncertainty, high interest rates, and geopolitical tensions weighed on sales.

Despite a brief summertime surge, major markets reported double-digit declines in annual activity levels, according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada’s 2023 Top-Tier End-of-Year Real Estate Report.

The sales that did materialize were often the result of opportunistic buyers and investors taking advantage of a market that swayed heavily in their favour. With that upper hand they overwhelmingly set their sights on single-family homes, as high condo fees and rising carrying costs progressively closed the affordability gap between the two property types.

“Buyers are not rushing into anything. They’re taking their time. They’re willing to negotiate on pricing conditions,” Don Kottick, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, explained to STOREYS. “Properties that aren't priced well will definitely languish. But the ones that are priced properly are selling.”

GTA

In the Greater Toronto Area, overall residential sales over $1M declined 19% year over year in 2023, while sales over $4M fell 20%. Ultra-luxury sales over $10M experienced a nominal 5% annual decline in comparison, although Sotheby’s noted that transactions were increasingly taken off-market as buyers and sellers sought privacy.

“The competence in the largest luxury market in in Canada is holding steady, even though some of the sales activity calmed a bit in 2023,” Kottick said. 

“Toronto is still the primary destination for immigration — and the federal government has very large immigration numbers — so that is still driving the market. In light of inflation, in light of wavering economic performance, in light of large government spending, we’re off to a very good start in January. And we’re cautiously optimistic that Toronto is going to have a very active year.”

Montreal

Luxury home sales in Montreal were “uneven” in 2023, as sellers’ and buyers’ price expectations failed to align. A “brisk summer” gave way to a frenzied fall, but consumer sentiments remain vulnerable to softening economic growth.

Overall, residential sales over $1M declined 14% annually, while luxury sales over $4M fell 22% year over year in 2023. One home over $10M was sold in Montreal last year.

Single-family and attached home sales over $1M declined 14% and 6% year over year, respectively, while condo sales in the price range experienced a more pronounced 21% drop.

Vancouver

Meanwhile, Vancouver’s luxury market experienced a “dramatic transformation” as consumers shied away from amenity-lacking condos, and zeroed in on single-family abodes.

While overall residential sales over $1M were relatively stable, experiencing a 5% annual decline, luxury sales over $4M increased 8% year over year, and sales over $10M soared 43% above 2022 levels.

Residential sales over $4M ended the year 8% above 2022 levels, while sales over $10M soared 43% annually, due in part to a third-quarter uptick. Overall residential sales over $1M declined 5% annually.

Single-family home sales over $4M rose 14% year over year, while ultra-luxury sales over $10M were up 36%. In comparison, condo sales over $4M declined 36% annually, and only one unit with a price tag above $10M changed hands.

Calgary

Month after month, Calgary proved to be the outlier of Canadian real estate in 2023, emerging, in the words of Sotheby’s, as an “unwavering beacon of economic strength and luxury real estate performance.”

The city’s strong economy and affordable properties continue to attract Canadians from pricier provinces, resulting in record-setting net interprovincial migration that bolstered the housing market throughout 2023.

“Calgary is really leading the way in Canada’s luxury markets,” Kottick said. “It was full steam ahead last year, and they are well poised for 2024.”

Overall residential sales over $1M jumped 13% annually in 2023, on the heels of a 16% increase a year prior. Within the price range, single-family and attached home sales increased 12% and 14%, respectively, while condo sales over $1M climbed 26% year over year.

Nine properties over $4M were sold in 2023, up from six a year prior. In line with 2022, no homes over $10M were sold.

Looking at the year ahead, Kottick sees the same seizure of opportunity on the part of purchasers, although their motivation is now an attempt to secure a good deal before interest rate cuts begin.

“Once rates actually come down, I think you’re going to see a flood of buyers coming back, which will put more pressure on the market again,” Kottick told STOREYS. “But there’s a general consensus right now that rates have already stabilized, and that’s brought some optimism to the markets. We kind of view it as cautious optimism, you know, going into 2024.”

https://storeys.com/luxury-home-sales-decline-2023/

[ToxiK]

Il y a 4 heures, mtlurb a dit :

 

“When I say development, it’s not necessarily housing or apartments, though the needs are huge,” said Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante. “It can be also for a development of a park, maybe a school, or other infrastructure.” 🤣

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/10260672/golf-course-protection-land-development-conservation-montreal/

C'est exactement ce dont je me plains avec Montréal: quand un terrain devient disponible, il faut en faire un parc...  Et elle appelle ça du développement pour ne pas paraitre anti-développement.  C'est probablement pour ça qu'elle se présentait comme la mairesse de la mobilité; une bicyclette, c'est techniquement mobile...