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Le Québec crée plus du tiers des emplois au Canada


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    Le Québec crée plus du tiers des emplois au Canada


    La création d'emplois a surpris en mars au Québec et au Canada, alors que Statistique Canada a rapporté jeudi que plus de 80 000 emplois avaient été créés au pays, dont plus du tiers au Québec.


    Après quatre mois de faible variation, l'emploi a progressé de 82 300 au Canada, soit 70 000 postes à temps plein et 12 400 à temps partiel.


    Les économistes sondés par l'agence Bloomberg attendaient une création d'emplois beaucoup moins forte, soit aux environs de 10 000 postes.


    La hausse de l'emploi a fait chuter le taux de chômage de 0,2 point de pourcentage, à 7,2%.


    Au Québec, l'économie a créé un total de 36 400 emplois, ramenant le taux de chômage à 7,9%, en baisse de 0,5 point de pourcentage.


    Environ les deux tiers des emplois créés ont été des postes à temps plein (23 900), alors que 12 600 nouveaux postes à temps partiel ont été observés.



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    Le taux de chômage recule à 7,2% au Canada




    Le taux de chômage a baissé de 0,2 point de pourcentage en mars au Canada pour passer à 7,2%.


    Statistique Canada note qu'après quatre mois de faible variation, l'emploi a progressé essentiellement dans le travail à temps plein.


    La croissance de l'emploi s'est répartie dans plusieurs secteurs, y compris les soins de santé et l'assistance sociale, l'information, la culture et les loisirs, ainsi que les administrations publiques. Les services d'enseignement ont quant à eux affiché une baisse.


    Parmi les provinces, l'emploi a progressé au Québec, en Ontario et au Manitoba, alors qu'il a reculé au Nouveau-Brunswick et en Nouvelle-Écosse. Au Québec, l'emploi a augmenté de 36 400 en mars. Le taux de chômage y a baissé de 0,5 point de pourcentage pour se situer à 7,9%



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    Il y a quelques chose de bizarre dans leurs stats:baisse majeure du taux de chômage dans beaucoup

    de provinces(dont le Québec).Mais en regardant ensuite la liste des villes quasiment pas de changement

    aussi bien à Montréal,Toronto,Québec,Calgary etc...ou sont donc ces gens qui ont retrouvé un job????



    Voici le taux dans les provinces du pays (le chiffre du mois précédent figure entre parenthèses):


    - Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador 13,0 (12,9)


    - Île-du-Prince-Édouard 11,3 (10,8)


    - Nouvelle-Écosse 8,3 (8,2)


    - Nouveau-Brunswick 10,2 (10,1)


    - Québec 7,9 (8,4)


    - Ontario 7,4 (7,6)


    - Manitoba 5,3 (5,6)


    - Saskatchewan 4,8 (5,0)


    - Alberta 5,3 (5,0)


    - Colombie-Britannique 7,0 (6,9)


    Voici le taux dans les grandes villes du pays:


    - Saint-Jean, Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador 7,8 (7,6)


    - Halifax 5,9 (5,8)


    - Moncton 6,4 (6,6)


    - Saint-Jean, N.-B. 8,2 (7,8)


    - Saguenay 6,1 (6,3)


    - Québec 5,1 (5,1)


    - Sherbrooke 7,1 (7,0)


    - Trois-Rivières 7,6 (8,1)


    - Montréal 9,2 (9,2)


    - Gatineau 5,5 (6,1)


    - Ottawa 6,2 (6,0)


    - Kingston 7,4 (7,1)


    - Peterborough 9,6 (7,5)


    - Oshawa 7,8 (7,4)


    - Toronto 8,6 (8,6)


    - Hamilton 6,0 (5,9)


    - St. Catharines-Niagara 7,5 (7,6)


    - Kitchener 6,7 (6,7)


    - Brantford 8,8 (8,2)


    - Guelph 5,4 (5,5)


    - London 8,5 (8,8)


    - Windsor 10,7 (10,7)


    - Barrie 9,2 (8,7)


    - Sudbury 7,2 (6,6)


    - Thunder Bay 5,3 (5,6)


    - Winnipeg 5,8 (5,8)


    - Regina 3,9 (4,4)


    - Saskatoon 5,9 (6,0)


    - Calgary 5,1 (5,2)


    - Edmonton 5,7 (5,3)


    - Kelowna 8,8 (8,2)


    - Abbotsford 10,6 (10,5)


    - Vancouver 6,6 (6,7)


    - Victoria 5,3 (5,3)



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    Leading Canadian economists losing faith in monthly job numbers


    Forgive me for raining on this parade, but Canada's wonderfully strong surge of job creation just reported for March probably wasn't real.


    This observation isn't based on any secret inside information; just on the sheer implausibility of this and other recent employment numbers from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey.


    The extreme volatility of reported employment gains has become so worrisome to people who depend on them as an important guide to policy for governments, businesses and investors that the National Bank's chief economist, Stéfane Marion, is calling for an investigation by Statistics Canada.


    Marion notes that since the agency showed a disastrous - and highly unlikely - loss of employment in Quebec late last year, he has spent months reassuring clients, including foreign investors, that the province's economy isn't really cratering:


    "I just returned from a marketing tour of the U.S. and people were questioning me about the outlook for Quebec and the implications of all those job losses."


    Marion is not alone in his concern about the reliability of these numbers.


    A number of other leading economists have made it clear that they just don't have much faith in the monthly figures produced by the Labour Force Survey.


    For example, if the official numbers were to be believed, last month witnessed a tidal wave of jobs - 82,300 of them - right after a seven-month drought when Canada averaged what Capital Economics' chief North American economist Paul Ashworth calls "a pathetic 14,000 additional jobs," averaging 2,000 per month.


    It's hard to believe that things were really as bad as that in an economy that has grown at a reasonably steady clip over this whole period. And it's equally hard to believe in the huge job bonanza for March.


    Warm weather might have given employment a modest nudge, but nothing else happened to speed up growth so hugely.


    "Do you really think March was the best month in three and a half years? Not likely." said economist Robert Kavcic at BMO Capital Markets.


    It's more probable, analysts say, that employment gains have been fairly steady at the modest pace implied by other economic indicators.


    If you average the official numbers over the entire past year, mixing the March spike with the earlier stagnation, the result is 16,400 jobs per month, which is plausible.


    This implies the official numbers could be about right for the whole period, but only after underestimating employment growth for months, then overestimating wildly in March. That isn't very reassuring to those who rely on each month's job number in making business decisions.


    Even more bizarre are the figures for Quebec, where the official survey said the fourth quarter of 2011 brought the province's most catastrophic job loss in three decades, unequalled since the severe recession of early 1980s. This even though other indicators showed steady growth in Quebec's economy.


    Now this same official survey says Quebec roared ahead to create more than half the new jobs in Canada during the first quarter of 2012, nearly all of them in March. But just as there was nothing to suggest any collapse late last year, there's no sign of a sudden boom this year.


    The pattern of employment reports for Quebec, with a savage meltdown followed by a sharp recovery, all within six months, "clearly shows that almost all of the fourthquarter drop in jobs was an anomaly. What it did signify is that the job market in Quebec was softening late last year, not nosediving," says Philip Cross, who recently retired as the chief economic analyst at Statistics Canada.


    Cross, now an economic consultant, doesn't interpret this as lack of competence on the part of those who run the Labour Force Survey, since results from this kind of household survey are inherently volatile. On the other hand, he does believe that the range of error in LFS results is larger than it acknowledges.


    And that's exactly the kind of issue that the National Bank's chief economist, Stèfane Marion, would like to see investigated openly by Statistics Canada.


    If its official job survey can't be made more reliable, at least those who produce it can be more transparent about its flaws, which could help to reduce the harmful impact of big swings in the numbers. Sadly, transparency has been in short supply.


    Like other economists who say they asked for more information, Marion found himself stonewalled by officials at the federal agency, who would tell him only that they stood by their data.


    Unfortunately for Marion and others, they didn't have the luxury of ignoring the numbers, no matter how flawed they seem. "You have to take this seriously," he said. "It's too important a data point to ignore


    Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Leading+Canadian+economists+losing+faith+monthly+numbers/6423736/story.html#ixzz1rf5EalaI

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    Merci pour l'artcile WestAust. Je me posais des questions justement sur la légitimité de ces chiffres. J'ai l'impression qu'il y a un peu de bull-shit dans ces chiffres. Il y a quelque chose qui sent mauvais.

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