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Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/Montreal+149th+best+place+live+Canada/6329887/story.html#ixzz1pgyzR8Wp Not sure how Winnipeg is 10th? Isn't that place the crime capital of Canada?

(Courtesy of The Montreal Gazette)

July 28, 2010 Economic Snapshot Office vacancy rates hit five-year high, despite uptick in office jobs JOHN CLINKARD consulting economist, CanaData The national office vacancy rate reached 9% in the second quarter of 2010, continuing a trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2008. This rate was up from 8.8% in the first quarter and was its highest level since the second quarter of 2005. According to the most recent numbers from Cushman & Wakefield, the increase was largely due to the addition of 1.5 million square feet of new supply. And it occurred despite the fact that 911,800 square feet of space were absorbed in the quarter. The office vacancy rate retreated slightly in Calgary (from 13.4% to 13.3%) and Winnipeg (from 9.3% to 9.0%) but increased in the remaining eight major metro areas. Among the 10 largest census metro areas, St John’s, N.L. had the lowest office vacancy rate in the country (5.5%), despite a significant decline in office-based employment over the past year. Ottawa recorded the second lowest office vacancy rate (6.6%) due in large part to a strong (+7.6% year over year) increase in office-based employment in the second quarter. Other major metro areas with below (national) average vacancy rates in the second quarter included: Saint John, N.B. (7.9%), Toronto (8.1%), and Vancouver (8.4%). In Montreal the office vacancy rate increased from 9.1% to 9.2%, its highest level since the third quarter of 2007. The office vacancy rate for the 10 largest metro areas in Canada is now at its highest level in five years, and year-to-date commercial building permits are down by 3.5% year over year in May. As such, the near-term outlook for new office construction is quite guarded. The outlook is further clouded by the concerns about the health of the U.S./global recovery. Having said this, the relative strength of office-based employment in Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver continues to point to a pickup in office construction late in 2010 or early in 2011. John Clinkard has over 30 years’ experience as an economist in international, national and regional research and analysis with leading financial institutions and media outlets in Canada. :(:(

Ste. Catherine St. has top lease rates Tied with Bloor St. in Toronto. Most expensive retail corridors in Canada By LYNN MOORE, The Gazette June 8, 2010 Toronto's Bloor St. and Montreal's Ste. Catherine St. are Canada's most expensive retail corridors, according to Colliers International's 2010 Global Retail Report, released yesterday. Ste. Catherine St. is tied in 32nd position with Toronto's Bloor St. on the global list of shopping hot spots. Merchants in the two most popular Canadian shopping areas pay an average lease rate of $300 per square foot, according to the report. The 2010 Winter Olympic festivities in Vancouver were not enough for the city's marquee retail stroll -Robson St., with its average rate of $200 per square foot -to overtake Toronto and Montreal's premier retail streets on the list. Jim Smerdon, director of retail and strategic planning with Colliers, said the retailers themselves set the lease rates according to the importance of the location. "The hallmark of strong retail streets is a blend of the size of the market, things like accessibility and parking, and a host of intangibles such as the history of the street as a commercial destination," he said. Even though Toronto is larger than Montreal and the commercial capital of Canada with more head offices and wealthy residents, it's not surprising that Ste. Catherine St.'s shops can command the same rent, Smerdon said. Ste. Catherine St., which is often thick with pedestrians night and day, is an experience, he acknowledged. "Montreal is more of a destination for shoppers than Toronto is ... and Ste. Catherine is more of a lifestyle experience," he said. In 31st spot on the Colliers list was Honolulu's Kalakaua Ave. and 33rd spot was occupied by Amsterdam's Kalverstraat. The report shows that Canada's most exclusive streets are a bargain compared with the world's priciest, in such places as Paris, New York, Hong Kong and London, where rates per square foot exceed $1,000. Topping the list was the Champs Elysees in Paris, with an average lease rate of about $1,256. All figures in the report are in U.S. dollars. The information comes from surveys and material supplied by Colliers staff in 61 countries, Smerdon said. lmoore@thegazette.canwest.com © Copyright © The Montreal Gazette Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Catherine+lease+rates/3125235/story.html#ixzz0qXanL7Xi

(Courtesy of CTV Montreal)

Vacancy rates keep rising in third quarter for Canada's commercial real estate sector, report shows (CP) – 44 minutes ago TORONTO — The amount of empty office space across Canada continued to rise in the third quarter due to higher unemployment in white-collar industries and excess inventory in some cities, a new report shows. Vacancy rates for commercial real estate are expected to keep rising "well into 2010" as the country works through the impact of the recent recession, CB Richard Ellis Ltd. said in report released Monday. Vacancy rates rose for the third straight quarter to an average of 9.4 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent for the same time last year, said the real estate services firm. "Limited new job creation in Canada's 'white-collar' industries and the addition of new inventory in two of Canada's three largest office markets are cited as reasons for the increase," according to the National Office and Industrial Trends Third Quarter Report. Commercial vacancy rates rose most noticeably Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver, the report shows. Calgary's third quarter vacancy rate jumped to 13.1 per cent, from 4.7 per cent last year, due to the impacts of a slowdown in the oil and gas industry. "The city's oil and gas industry and commercial market remained inexorably linked, as players both large and small continue to recognize that even Calgary has not been immune to the country's new economic reality," the report states. In Toronto, the commercial vacancy rate rose to 9.1 per cent from 6.6 per cent last year. The vacancy rate in downtown Toronto is expected to climb further in the coming quarter as space becomes available in newly constructed office towers. In Vancouver, vacancy rates climbed to 8.9 per cent from 5.4 per cent for the same time last year. The report said Vancouver is one of the more stable markets in the country thanks to limited new development. Montreal's vacancy rate rose to 10.3 per cent from 8.3 per cent last year, while Halifax's rose to 10.2 per cent from 8.4 per cent. Vacancy rates also rose in the country's smaller office markets, specifically in suburban areas, but at a lesser rate, the report shows. It said cities with government office space also saw more stability in their commercial real estate markets. Ottawa had the lowest overall third quarter vacancy rate in the country of 5.8 per cent compared to five per cent for the same time last year, while Winnipeg's rate came in at 7.5 per cent up from 4.8 per cent last year. The overall vacancy rate in the Waterloo Region, home to such technology firms as Research in Motion (TSX:RIM), edged up slightly to 6.7 per cent from 6.4 per cent last year. The report predicts vacancy rates to keep rising in the fourth quarter and into 2010, "as Canada continues to grind its way out of the recession."

Office vacancy rates to go even higher: report Financial Post Published: Wednesday, August 05, 2009 Neither Calgary nor Toronto can expect any immediate relief, as both will see millions of square feet of new supply coming onto the market over the next 24 to 36 months (seven million for Calgary and five million for Toronto). Sean DeCory/National Post Neither Calgary nor Toronto can expect any immediate relief, as both will see millions of square feet of new supply coming onto the market over the next 24 to 36 months (seven million for Calgary and ... OTTAWA -- Vacancies in Canada's office market have surged to 8.5% and will climb toward levels not seen since the dot-com bust earlier this decade before finally levelling out, commercial broker Avison Young said in a report Wednesday. "The vacancy rate will definitely be trending up in the coming quarters," said Bill Argeropoulos, director of research at Avison Young. "We're not sure if it will breach the recent high of 11.5% in 2003, but we do see the vacancy perhaps breaching the 10% barrier in the coming quarters and perhaps into 2010, largely because of new supply coming into the market." Furthermore, said Avison Young chief executive Mark Rose: "The global financial crisis has had a significant impact on market psychology, creating inertia and paralyzing decision-making. Recovery . . . will occur only when corporate profits return, unemployment rates drop and decision-makers believe were are trending upwards." In the past 12 months, vacancies have climbed more than two percentage points from the 6.1% rate of mid-year in 2008, and Mr. Argeropoulos said it will likely be the end of 2011 before national rates begin to level off. Mississauga holds the distinction of having the highest office vacancy rate in the country at 10.8%. Toronto experienced the highest annual change among eastern cities, climbing from 6.6% to 9.6% in the past 12 months, a three-year high. Calgary, meanwhile, underwent the highest change in vacancy rates among western cities, soaring from 3.6% in mid-2008 to 9.3% by mid-2009. Neither Calgary nor Toronto can expect any immediate relief as both will see millions of square feet of new supply coming onto the market over the next 24 to 36 months (seven million for Calgary and five million for Toronto). Both will definitely surpass the 10% vacancy rate in the months ahead, Mr. Argeropoulos said. Calgary also saw the largest plunge in rental rates, with downtown Class A space collapsing to $30 per square foot from $46. This is still the most expensive in the country, however, along with Edmonton, where prices are also at $30. Nationally, lease rates for downtown Class A space fell to $22 per square foot in mid-2009 from $25 the year before. Prices ranged from a low of $13 in Quebec City to Calgary and Edmonton's $30. Avison's mid-year office survey tallies results for 12 regions across the country. Canwest News Service ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Unused office space up 75% in Q2: report Garry Marr, Financial Post Published: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 The amount of unused office space business put on the sublease market grew by almost 75% last quarter from a year ago, a further indication of the crumbling economy. CB Richard Ellis Ltd. said more than 7.7 million square feet of office space came back into the market across the country, an increase from the more than 4.4 million that hit the market in the same quarter a year ago. The sheer size of the increasing sublease market drove the national vacancy rate to 8.3% from 6.4% a year ago. "The deepening recession has prompted businesses across the country to continue to identify ways to trim overhead and pare back their need for phantom space," said John O'Bryan, vice-chairman of CB Richard Ellis. "The trend of doing with less right now is especially evident in Canada's major office markets. However, it is important to note that the commercial real estate market typically lags behind the residential market by a few months, so we are simply now experiencing the slowdown that other markets went through in the last quarter." Mr. O'Bryan said the Canadian market continues to fare better than United States markets where vacancy rates reached 15.9% at the end of the first quarter. Canadian vacancy rates were only 7.5% at the end of the first. "If we were in the U. S. right now looking at a national occupancy rate of 91.7%, there would be a widespread sense of optimism regarding the health of the country's commercial market." But there are clear signs across the country that the office market has been hit hard by the economy with vacancies rising everywhere. In Vancouver, the beaten-down technology and resource sectors helped drive sublet activity. The effect was to push the vacancy rate from 5.6% to 7.8%. The once-airtight Calgary office market has sprung a leak as lower oil prices have led many of Alberta's junior oil and gas companies to cut their space. In the second quarter, Calgary's vacancy rate rose to 10.2% from 4.6% a year ago. CB Richard Ellis says it will rise to 20% by the end of 2009. Vacancies in Toronto, the largest office market in the country, rose to 8.4% in the second quarter, up from 6.7% a year ago. CB Richard Ellis expects rates to continue to rise in 2009 and 2010. In Montreal, softness in the commercial market drove vacancy rates up from 8.5% to 9.7%, on a year-over-year basis. The real estate company said cost-containment measures by large tenants have impacted the market. Backed by the federal government, Ottawa is proving to have the best office market in the country. The overall vacancy rate grew to 5.1%, only a slight jump from the 4.9% a year ago. Ottawa's suburban offices, which are more dependent on the private sector, were hit harder than the government-dominated downtown core. gmarr@nationalpost.com Here's the complete report : http://www.avisonyoung.com/library/pdf/National/MidYear09-National-Office.pdf

Foreclosures, immigration linked in report Areas hit hardest have high percentage of foreign-born heads of household By Timothy Pratt (contact) Wed, May 13, 2009 (2 a.m.) Las vegas Sun Counties with high foreclosure rates also tend to have large immigrant populations, according to a Pew Hispanic Center report released Tuesday. The study ranked Clark County sixth nationwide in foreclosure rates last year with 8.9 percent of the valley’s houses in the courts. Nearly 1 in 4 heads of household locally were foreign-born, much higher than the national rate of 4.7 percent. Half of those immigrants were Hispanic. But the study’s main author, Rakesh Kochhar, cautioned that focusing on those factors can lead to a “chicken and egg situation.” “The two things appear together, but is there a causal relationship? Not necessarily,” he said. Kochhar noted that jobs building houses drew many immigrants to the Las Vegas Valley in the past two decades. An unknown number of those workers bought homes. The report also shows that Hispanics, blacks and minorities in general entered subprime mortgages at higher rates than the rest of the population. Nationwide, for example, 27.6 percent of home loans to Hispanics in 2007 were high-priced and a third of loans to blacks were in the same category. Only 1 in 10 loans to whites were high-priced. So areas with higher shares of minorities tend to have higher numbers of homeowners with loans at risk of entering foreclosure. Kochhar’s report, titled “Through Boom and Bust: Minorities, Immigrants and Homeownership,” shows that counties with high foreclosure rates exhibit other factors, including rising unemployment rates and sinking home values. Clark County’s unemployment rate for March was 10.4 percent, tenth-highest among major metropolitan areas nationwide. The Pew report looks at unemployment rates only for 2008 as a whole, which in Clark County was 6.5 percent. The construction sector is among the hardest-hit in terms of job loss. And home values in Las Vegas dropped 31.7 percent in 2008, second most in the nation behind Phoenix, according to a recent Standard & Poor’s report. So there are several factors related to high concentrations of immigrants, each somehow related to another. As Kochhar wrote, “the presence of immigrants in a county may simply signal the effects of a boom-and-bust cycle that has raised foreclosure rates for all residents in that county.” Ian Hirsch, who manages Fortress Credit Services and has taken on hundreds of clients seeking to adjust their mortgages to avoid or get out of foreclosure, said the report’s conclusions match his on-the-ground experience. “It doesn’t surprise me,” Hirsch said. He pointed to the dozens of minority and immigrant clients he has seen who say, “This is not what I was told I was getting into” when they come to his office for help. The adjustable rates in their mortgages and the lack of financial assets they brought to the table lead many of those clients to foreclosure, he added. Some of those clients worked in the construction industry, building the homes that came with the boom. Now, Hirsch noted, with the construction of CityCenter and other large commercial projects nearing an end, unemployment may continue to rise in the coming months. This could bring more foreclosures and failed businesses. “Unfortunately,” Hirsch said, “I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better.”

Avison Young Montreal | 2008 Review and 2009 Forecast | 2008 In Review At the start of 2008, a strong Canadian dollar negatively impacted the province’s export industry. However, Montreal still posted positive economic growth of 1.7% for the year.2008 was a challenging year for the Montreal economy. The combination of a strong Canadian dollar for most of the year and the recent financial crisis in the United States negatively impacted the province’s export industry. Quebec’s economy is positioned in industrial sectors that are lagging or in a slump, such as the clothing, forestry, furniture and manufacturing industries. However, despite all this, Montreal still posted positive economic growth of 1.7% in 2008. Employment grew by 1.3% in the year and is anticipated to increase by another 1.5% in 2009. Consumer spending remained high and has contributed tremendously to economic growth. Office Engineering firms, many of whom are expanding to support major infrastructure projects in the province, spurred demand for office space. Downtown office vacancy closed the year at 5.4%, a significant drop from 6.2% at the end of 2007 and 9% at the end of 2006. The decrease in vacancyrates in the downtown market was accompanied by only a slight increase in rental rates. The suburban office vacancy rate has remained stable over the past four years, and closed the year at 13.1%. In 2008, 400,000 square feet (sq. ft.) of space was absorbed in the market, significantly lower than the 2007 absorption of 1.37 million sq. ft. Absorption of office space has been modest due to lack of quality space. Certainly, what is left of quality office space in downtown Montreal is quickly being absorbed, and options for tenants are becoming increasingly limited. Industrial Montreal’s manufacturing sector has been strongly affected by the rise in the value of the Canadian dollar. As a result, the industrial market has moved away from manufacturing to logistics and distribution type industries that drove demand for industrial space in Montreal. These types of companies require smaller spaces with greater clear heights. Consequently, vacancy rates increased for large spaces of 100,000 sq. ft. and more, whereas spaces between 15,000 and 25,000 sq. ft. became increasingly more difficult to find. Buildings with clear heights of 24 feet are in great demand and have an extremely low vacancy rate of approximately 1%. The rental rates for these buildings have therefore increased. Limited availability of appropriate space motivated tenants to construct built–to-suit projects that provide the amenities they require. Many of the older, more obsolete buildings are being demolished or completely renovated by developers. Retail Substantial consumer demand in Montreal created an active retail market in 2008, and retail sales rose by 5.5% in the year. In the downtown core’s central area, rental rates have quadrupled and vacancies are nonexistent. Rental rates closed the year at between $200 to $215 psf at the corner of Ste-Catherine and Peel Streets. Newcomers to Ste-Catherine Street include Apple Computer’s first Montreal retail location at 1321 Ste-Catherine Street West and H&M at the corner of Peel Street, with 20,000 sq. ft. Investment The financial crisis in the United States has softened the investment market in Montreal. Assets offered for sale require a longer exposure period. Investors using financial leverage as the basis for investment are having trouble completing acquisitions, thus diminishing the occurrence of successful transactions. As a result capitalization rates increased by approximately 25 basis points this year. Despite this, many successful transactions were completed earlier in 2008. Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. invested approximately $100 million to acquire a 50% interest in 1981 McGill College, together with a major financial partner that acquired the remaining 50%. Cominar REIT acquired 2001 McGill College for $165 million. Canderel and Proment sold the first Phase of the Bell Campus for $185 million to a German real estate investment fund. 2009 Forecast Office Montreal is the only city in Canada with no significant downtown office construction projects. Until recently, large tenants have been able to find suitable alternatives that were much less expensive than proposed new projects. However, as vacancy rates continue to plunge, the availability of quality space will become even more limited. Tenants will soon have no choice but to consider one of the new construction projects. Expect to see the beginning of one or two office construction projects in 2009. Potential office developments include Canderel’s development of 1201-1215 Phillips Square, Hines’ development of 900 de Maisonneuve, Magil Laurentienne’s office or mixed-use building at 701 University and Westcliff’s development of Phase 2 of Place de la Cité Internationale. Quebec’s 2008 budget aimed to stimulate business investment by eliminating tax on capital for manufacturers and by offering a tax credit for the purchase of manufacturing equipment and a tax credit for new information technology companies. Accordingly, the Province of Quebec agreed to provide investment banking giant Morgan Stanley with $60 million in tax credits for opening a new global technical support centre in Montreal. Morgan Stanley is currently searching for office space in anticipation of bringing staff levels to 500 or more. Phase 1 of the new Bell campus on Nun’s Island was officially opened in August of this year. Phase 2 is anticipated to be ready for occupancy in February 2009. It will comprise 235,000 sq. ft. of office space and amenities, bringing the total to 840,000 sq. ft. A third phase is also planned, thus bringing the campus total to approximately 1.4 million sq. ft. The downtown core office market has absorbed a large percentage of the space formerly occupied by Bell. Retail In 2009, Canadians will likely be faced with weakening job prospects, tighter credit conditions and economic uncertainty, thus leading to moderated consumer spending. Retail sales are expected to grow by only 3.5% in 2009, as opposed to the 5.5% growth seen in 2008. Demand for space on Ste-Catherine Street will slow dramatically in 2009. As a result, retail vacancy rates are anticipated to increase and if retail sales continue to lag, we expect to see some retailers walking away from stores that do not perform. This will give tenants the upper hand in lease negotiations. Industrial The diminishing strength of the Canadian dollar will benefit the export industry in 2009. Demand for industrial space will likely come from the logistics, distribution and aerospace industries. We anticipate the overall vacancy rate to increase, as more space comes to market and older buildings that lack required ceiling heights remain empty. However, the vacancy rate for smaller buildings with adequate clear heights will remain low. Rental rates for the older, more obsolete buildings will decrease and rates for newer, smaller spaces with adequate ceiling heights will remain flat. Industrial construction activity will continue to slow in 2009 as a result of financing difficulties coupled with high land and construction costs. However, industrial growth will continue off the island of Montreal due to lower land costs and higher availability. Investment Banks have tightened credit significantly and consequently, financing is more difficult to obtain. Borrowers that lack liquidity will likely have difficulty acquiring assets. This, however, will leave the door open for REITs and international investors with capital at their disposal. In 2009, we anticipate a general slowdown in the investment market. The majority of investment sales deals in 2009 will be concentrated on a few portfolio deals; mostly smaller transactions involving retail and warehouse properties. Prices for commercial real estate product will likely decrease and cap rates will increase by 50 to 100 basis points. http://www.avisonyoung.com/library/pdf/National/forecast2009.pdf Également présent dans la section "Ressources".

Immigrants' children more likely to graduate from university Statistics Canada's new study. Close-knit South American family has played major role in her success, student says SHANNON PROUDFOOT, Canwest News Service Published: 8 hours ago The odds of celebrating a university graduation vary widely for young adults in Canada, largely depending on where their parents were born, according to a new study from Statistics Canada. The children of immigrants are more likely to toss a graduation cap in the air than their peers with Canadian-born parents. However, the children of Chinese immigrants are almost three times more likely to graduate from university than those of Latin American immigrants, the report finds, at 70 per cent compared to 24 per cent. By comparison, about 28 per cent of the children of Canadian-born parents get university degrees. Children of Indian parents and those from other Asian countries and Africa have graduation rates above 50 per cent, while about 25 per cent of children with parents from European countries like Germany, Portugal and the Netherlands get degrees. "The children of almost all immigrant groups have either similar or higher university completion rates than the children of Canadian-born parents," says Teresa Abada, an assistant professor of sociology at the University of Western Ontario who conducted the study for Statistics Canada. Some of this can be explained by the fact immigrant parents are more likely to have university educations themselves and to live in big cities, she said, and those characteristics are associated with higher university graduation rates for their children. But even taking those factors into account, the children of immigrants - especially those from China or India - still fare better than others in education, Abada said. The scope of this study didn't allow researchers to discover why this might be, but similar research in the U.S. "suggests a sense of obligation to one's parents to do well academically" is at work, she said. University of Calgary students' union president Dalmy Baez says her close-knit South American family has played a major role in her success at school, whether it was 2 a.m. trips to photocopy campaign posters or cheering from the sidelines at debates and sporting events. Her Chilean mother and Paraguayan father met in Montreal after both immigrated to Canada and later moved to Calgary to raise Baez, 21, and her three siblings. Two of the Baez children attended university and two didn't, she said, though all have enjoyed success in their own fields. "I wasn't really sure if I was going to go to university," she said. "The second I started showing interest in school and subjects, they both became incredibly supportive and encouraging." Baez expects to graduate with a degree in political science and a minor in communications this spring and says she'll likely pursue a career in politics afterward. She and her siblings share a house in Calgary that they bought with their parents' help and now pay the mortgage on. A shortage of funds for post-secondary school can be a major barrier for the children of immigrants, Baez said, but for her parents it was crucial that their children get the most out of the life they built in Canada. "Our parents wanted us to take advantage of the opportunities we had here and they certainly weren't going to let us get away with not," she said.

Prepare for home prices to drop Most Canadian housing markets overpriced, UBC study finds With Metro Vancouver past the peak of its current real-estate market cycle, more discussion is emerging about what the cycle's downside will look like. The latest discussion points lean towards a price correction in the double digits, with one study showing current Vancouver house prices overvalued by 11 per cent on a particular measure and an economist observing that prices are falling at a rate of 10 per cent or more this year. University of B.C. real-estate economist Tsur Somerville was lead author of a study that evaluated the cost to rent a detached, mid-market home in nine Canadian cities versus the cost to own, in order to find a balanced price. The study's conclusion was that in the second-quarter of this year, Metro Vancouver's house price, of $754,500, was 11 per cent higher than the balance point. However, that is less out of balance than Regina, Winnipeg, Ottawa and Montreal, which are 25 per cent out of equilibrium, considering prices and rents in those markets. Halifax house prices are 20 per cent out of balance. Titled Are Canadian Housing Markets Overpriced? the study observes that housing affordability is a severe problem in some Canadian cities, limiting the ability of markets to continue to rise. Calgary prices showed as being seven per cent higher than balance. Only Toronto showed prices in balance with rents, and Edmonton, which has already seen price declines, would need to see prices climb again by eight per cent to be in balance. "I was surprised the Vancouver number is as low as it was," Somerville, director of the centre for urban economics and real estate at the Sauder School of Business at UBC, said in an interview. He added that the rent-versus-own measure is a narrow observation that treats homes like a financial asset and does not take other measures of affordability or valuation into account. And what eventually happens in the Vancouver market, Somerville said, will depend on a host of variables ranging from changes in mortgage rates to changes in the long-term average appreciation of housing prices and economic conditions. "What you can identify is where the pressures are," Somerville added. "How the market plays out is very different." Prices do not have to fall for the market to correct, Somerville said. Prices can simply stagnate over a period of time, like Vancouver experienced through the mid-1990s until 2001. However, Somerville added that Vancouver has built new homes at a much higher rate than household formation in the city during the up-cycle, and the inventory of unsold homes in the market has ballooned rapidly, which make Vancouver more susceptible to price declines. "Those are two big warning signs," he said. Somerville said another unknown in the declining market is what the buyers of pre-sale condominiums that are now under construction will do once the units are complete. If a significant number of investor-buyers of those condominiums decide to sell them right away, that would put more downward pressure on prices. However, at this point there is little evidence of "calamity in the housing market," said Helmut Pastrick, chief economist for Central 1 Credit Union, formerly known as Credit Union Central B.C. Pastrick said the reversal in the housing market was caused because of affordability. Too many first-time buyers were squeezed out of the market for prices to rise higher. However, "it would take nastier economic conditions," such as a recession or sudden spike in mortgage rates to cause a more serious decline in Vancouver's markets, he said. Pastrick said Vancouver's housing price index has declined four per cent since its peak in February, and in his latest weekly economic briefing, he noted that prices are on pace to drop 10 to 15 per cent this year. "I think [the decline] will be closer to 10 per cent by the end of the year," Pastrick added in an interview. "And the [decline] will be at least 10 per cent from top to bottom [of the cycle]." The inventory of unsold homes, which had grown dramatically over the summer, dropped a bit in August and Pastrick expected that trend to continue over the next several months. At some point in 2009, he believes, the real estate market will find a new balance "and we could see housing prices tread water." "I'm not suggesting [prices will be] flat," he said. "There's going to be some movement, but it could be a period of time where prices don't make large moves up or down - perhaps plus or minus five per cent a year." Pastrick said significant numbers of first-time buyers will have to be able to afford to buy homes before the market swings back up. Recent declines in prices help that affordability factor, he said, but low interest rates and solid income growth will also be needed to put the market into its next upswing. "After going through this adjustment period, which I think will run its course next year," Pastrick said, "we could be in a period of a flat market" that could last through 2010 to 2012. http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...7-1a4e7666c4b2

Cleaned up? Not so much One-Quarter of Montrealers see problem behaviour in their neighbourhoods The view on St. Antoine St. W. Almost a quarter of Montrealers said social incivility in one form or another is a problem in their neighbourhoods. Fifteen per cent mentioned drug use and five per cent specified prostitution. CHRISTOPHER MAUGHAN, The Gazette Published: 20 hours ago Montreal has been known as "sin city" for the better part of a century, ever since Americans started coming here to drink freely during the Prohibition era. A new survey suggests little has changed since. Researchers at Statistics Canada asked people living in big cities how often they witnessed incidences of social and physical incivility - that is, drunkenness, drug use, prostitution, vandalism, littering and the like. Montreal ranked second in almost every category. Twenty-four per cent of Mont-realers said social incivility in one form or another is a problem in their neighbourhoods. Fifteen per cent specifically mentioned drug use and five per cent mentioned prostitution. The view on St. Antoine St. W. Almost a quarter of Montrealers said social incivility in one form or another is a problem in their neighbourhoods. Fifteen per cent mentioned drug use and five per cent specified prostitution.View Halifax and Vancouver were the only cities to report higher rates of social incivility, at 25 and 26 per cent respectively. They were also the only cities to report higher rates of drug use at 19 and 17 per cent respectively. As for prostitution, only Vancouver had a higher rate, with eight per cent of residents describing it as a problem. People in 12 cities participated in the survey, the results of which came as no surprise to people downtown yesterday. Guillaume Fontaine, 27, works at a club near the corner of Ste. Catherine St. and St. Laurent Blvd. He said he sees drug users hanging around all the time. "Right in front of us across the street, in this area outside the doors there, they sit down and smoke their crack." It's a routine they seem to have been allowed to slip into. Fontaine said he sees drug users "on an everyday basis" ever since he took a job in the area two years ago. Others who work near the city's most notorious corner had similar complaints. "You can see the prostitutes and drug dealers working all the time, even early in the morning," said Hélène Dumont, 49. Montreal executive committee member Marcel Tremblay said police have behaviour like drug use, prostitution and vandalism under control and residents need not worry about the survey's results. Tremblay said Montreal's rates of drug use, public drunkenness, vandalism or prostitution may be high for Canada, but aren't through the roof by any means. "If you go all over North America, or all over the world, you'll have exactly the same thing." And Tremblay was quick to point out that Montreal does quite well in preventing violent crimes. "Have you seen the figures on security? We're (among the cities) with the least killings in Canada. We're able to go out 24 hours a day," he said. But implementing community policing initiatives is just a part of what needs to be done to keep pushers, pimps and vandals off the streets, said Irvin Waller, director of the University of Ottawa's Institute for the Prevention of Crime. "The solution ... is some combination of law enforcement and social services that tackle the roots of the problems," he said. "These social problems have been made a lot worse because of the large cutbacks in housing and mental hospitals in Canada in the 1990s. Montreal had a particularly bad time of that." Most people on the street yesterday agreed with Waller, saying Montreal needs better social outreach programs rather than more police officers. "It's obvious some of the people hanging around here are high, just look at them. But I think that's just the way it is in a big city," said Karima Lachal, 32, gesturing toward the UQÀM-Berri métro station. Just then, a short, thin man with greasy, matted hair and a few days' stubble staggered over to ask if she had any change. Lachal politely brushed him off. "There's a living example of what I'm talking about," she said. "Anyway, I think the police are doing their job, it's just that these people need more help on a social level." cmaughan@thegazette.canwest.com © The Gazette (Montreal) 2008

Je pense que ça va vous faire plaisir... LORI MCLEOD Globe and Mail Update April 16, 2008 at 1:43 PM EDT Montreal has edged ahead of midtown Manhattan to create an all-Canadian list of the top five office rental markets in North America in the first quarter of 2008, according to a study released Wednesday by real estate brokerage Cushman Wakefield & LePage. Canada's five largest cities had the lowest office vacancy rates of the 15 major leasing markets in North America in the first three months of the year, according to Cushman Wakefield's data. Downtown Montreal took fifth spot on the list with a vacancy rate of 5.8 per cent, but posted the largest year-over-year drop at 3.5 percentage points due to strong demand and a lack of new supply. This caused it to squeak by midtown Manhattan, the strongest market in the United States, with an office vacancy rate of 6 per cent. “Montreal has experienced years of virtual stagnation in the office leasing market. But slow and steady economic growth and a lack of new development over the past decade have transitioned Montreal from a tenant market to a landlord market,” Colum Bastable, president and chief executive officer of Cushman & Wakefield, said in a statement. At a vacancy rate of just 2.6 per cent, Vancouver had the tightest downtown office rental market of the 15 cities included in the study. This was followed by Calgary at 3.6 per cent, Toronto at 3.9 per cent, Ottawa at 4.1 per cent and Montreal at 5.8 per cent. The city with the highest downtown office vacancy rate was Dallas at 28.7 per cent, far greater than the next on the list, Los Angeles, at 13.5 per cent. The sharpest rise in vacancy rate occurred in Calgary, growing to 4.5 per cent in the first quarter from a low of 1.4 per cent in the same period of 2007. Vacancies remained tight in Class A downtown buildings in the city at a rate of just 1.8 per cent. Despite a weakening provincial economy and three new office towers under construction, Toronto's vacancy rates continue to decline, Mr. Bastable said. The study also measured vacancy rates in suburban areas, where Canada's market was again tighter than that of the U.S. Toronto's suburbs had the lowest vacancy rate of these markets in the first quarter at 7.2 per cent, followed by those of Calgary at 7.4 per cent, Ottawa at 7.5 per cent, Vancouver at 9.3 per cent and Montreal at 11.2 per cent. The suburbs of Dallas had the highest vacancy rate at 21.5 per cent, followed by those of central New Jersey at 20.3 per cent and Chicago at 19 per cent. “All of Canada's major markets are well positioned to weather an economic downturn. Years of conservative and prudent development, along with low interest rates, will work to keep supply and demand in relative equilibrium even as the economy and demand slacken,” Mr. Bastable said. source: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...tory/Business/