Le fil de la crise économique

[Malek]

Es-tu certain de ce que tu avances ?

 

Car si tout les pays réduisent leur consommation, je suis d'accord avec toi, la demande va aussi diminuer, mais c'est la suite que je t'accorde moins.

 

L'OPEP va nécessairement continuer son actuel petit jeux et augmenter perpétuellement les prix du baril...

 

avance quoi??

 

tu parles du CAFE? google is your friend

[Atze]

U.S. Underwater Mortgages May Reach 30%, Zillow Says (Update2)

 

By Dan Levy

 

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Almost one-quarter of U.S. mortgage holders owed more than their homes were worth in the second quarter and that figure may rise to as much as 30 percent by mid-2010 as job losses and foreclosures climb, Zillow.com said.

 

 

Homeowners are being hurt by price declines. The estimated median value for single-family houses slid to $186,500 in the period, a 12 percent drop from a year earlier and the 10th consecutive quarterly decrease, the Seattle-based real estate data service said in a report today.

 

“The negative-equity rate will rise and spin off more foreclosures,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, said in an interview. “I see a substantial downside risk to prices and don’t think we’ll see a bottom until the middle of next year.”

 

The U.S. housing market is being hindered even as the pace of job cuts and price declines slows. Payrolls fell by 247,000 in July, after a 443,000 loss in June, the Labor Department said. Home prices in 20 major cities declined 17 percent in May from a year earlier, the smallest drop in nine months, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.

 

Home values dipped in the second quarter from a year earlier in almost 90 percent of the 161 U.S. metropolitan areas surveyed by Zillow, the company said. Twenty-three percent of mortgage holders were underwater at the end of June, Zillow said.

 

Deutsche Bank Forecast

 

The percentage of people owing more than their properties are worth may increase to almost half of U.S. mortgage holders before the housing recession ends, Deutsche Bank AG said Aug. 5.

 

About 25 million homes, or 48 percent of mortgaged properties, will be underwater as prices drop through the first quarter of 2011, Karen Weaver and Ying Shen, analysts in New York at Deutsche Bank, wrote in the report.

 

A glut of unsold homes is also pushing down prices. The 3.8 million homes for sale in June would take 9.4 months to sell at the current pace of transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors. The inventory turnover rate averaged 4.5 months in the six years from 2000 to 2005.

 

More than 18.7 million homes, including foreclosures, residences for sale and vacation homes, stood vacant in the U.S. during the second quarter. That compared with 18.6 million a year earlier, the U.S. Census Bureau said July 24.

 

“We haven’t seen a bottom in home prices, and it could take into 2011 before we see equilibrium in the market,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York.

 

Foreclosure Sales

 

In June, foreclosures accounted for 22 percent of total U.S. home sales, and 29 percent of homes sold were purchased for less than what the owner originally paid, according to Zillow.

 

The unemployment rate declined to 9.4 percent last month from 9.5 percent in June.

 

Values declined the most in Merced, California, tumbling 40 percent to an estimated $106,500, Zillow said. El Centro, California, followed with a 38 percent drop to $117,400. Las Vegas was third with a 35 percent decline to $140,500.

 

Madera and Modesto, in California, sank 34 percent to $144,400 and 31 percent to $140,500, respectively.

 

Values decreased 12 percent to an estimated $361,000 in the New York City area; 12 percent to $318,000 in Washington; 15 percent to $393,800 in Los Angeles; 13 percent to $202,400 in Chicago; 6.4 percent to $316,000 in Boston; 4.6 percent to $132,600 in Dallas; and 15 percent to $490,500 in San Francisco, according to Zillow.

 

Fayetteville, North Carolina, had the biggest increase in median value, rising 13 percent to an estimated $120,600. Oklahoma City gained 4.8 percent to $118,700; Binghamton, New York, advanced 4.5 percent to $112,300; Burlington, North Carolina, added 4.4 percent to $124,200; and Gainesville, Georgia, climbed 4.2 percent to $139,100, according to Zillow.

 

The company compiles data from multiple listing services, county assessors and recorders, as well as its users.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arpJHI9U42Rs

 

 

 

Home Price Declines Accelerate in Second Quarter (Update3)

 

By Kathleen M. Howley and Brian Louis

 

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Home price declines in the U.S. accelerated in the second quarter, dropping by a record 15.6 percent from a year earlier, as foreclosures weighed on values.

 

 

The median price of an existing single-family home dropped to $174,100, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said today. Total sales rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million from the first quarter and fell 2.9 percent from 2008’s second quarter.

 

Prices fell in 129 out of 155 metropolitan areas from a year ago and 39 states experienced sales increases from the first quarter, the Chicago-based realtors group said. Sales in U.S. housing market at the heart of the global recession are beginning to stabilize, said Patrick Newport, an economist for Lexington, Massachusetts-based IHS Global Insight.

 

“I don’t think we’re at a bottom yet in home prices,” said Scott Anderson, a senior economist at Wells Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. “There’s also a pretty big shadow supply of houses. People are kind of waiting for the bottom but there’s a pent-up supply out there.”

 

Home prices are falling even as a survey of economists indicates that the U.S. economy is recovering from the worst recession since the 1930s. The economy will expand 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median of 53 forecasts in the monthly Bloomberg News survey.

 

Regional Price Declines

 

The median existing home price fell 9.7 percent in the Northeast from the same period a year earlier to $246,000, the group said. Sales jumped 15 percent from the first quarter and are down 8.4 percent from a year ago.

 

In the Midwest, prices fell 8.6 percent to a median of $146,800 from a year earlier. In the South, prices slid 10.3 percent to $158,600. In the West, they declined 26.6 percent to $212,600.

 

The largest decline was in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers metropolitan region, where the median price fell 53 percent to $84,000 from a year earlier. The second-largest decline was in the Las Vegas, Nevada, region, where prices fell 39.7 percent, followed by the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario metro area in California, where prices fell 39.1 percent.

 

The biggest increase in prices was in the Davenport-Moline- Rock Island area of Illinois and Iowa, where prices surged 30.6 percent to $113,200 from a year earlier. The second biggest jump was in the Cumberland metro area of Maryland and West Virginia, where prices rose 21.7 percent. The Elmira, New York, area had the third-biggest increase, where prices rose 11.3 percent.

 

Lower Rates

 

Home prices are tumbling even as mortgage rates remain near all-time lows. The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed home loan was to 5.22 percent last week, down from 5.25 percent the prior week, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac of McLean, Virginia. The rate dipped to 4.78 percent in April, the lowest ever recorded.

 

U.S. foreclosure filings -- notices of default, auction or bank seizure -- rose to a record in 2009’s first half, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of real estate data. More than 1.5 million properties, one in every 84 U.S. households, received a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said in a July 16 report.

 

Default Discounts

 

Homes in or near default typically sell for about 20 percent less than non-distressed property, according to the Realtors group. Those sales reduce the value of each surrounding home by an average $8,667 because the lower price is used by appraisers to set values for other properties in the area, according to the Center for Responsible Lending in Durham, North Carolina.

 

The world’s largest economy will contract 1.3 percent this year, according to a July 10 forecast by Fannie Mae. The U.S. unemployment rate may climb to 9.9 percent in 2010, from 9.3 percent this year, according to the mortgage buyer controlled by the U.S. government.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axsovog3CuAE