TPG'S Bonderman Predicts `L-Shape' Global Recession

[cjb]

``What happens in the next leg down? We obviously have a huge crisis in financial institutions, but the crisis in the economy is just beginning to be felt,'' Bonderman told a private equity conference in Hong Kong today. ``The global recession is likely to be a deep one and a prolonged one, not a V-shape, not a U-shape, more an L-shape one.''

 

The credit contagion that began with a surge in subprime mortgage delinquencies is driving the U.S., European and Japanese economies toward recession, and prompted China to unveil a $586 billion stimulus package. The International Monetary Fund last week predicted economic contractions next year in the U.S., Japan and the euro region, the first simultaneous recession since the end of World War II.

 

David Rubenstein, the 59-year-old co-founder of Washington- based Carlyle Group, echoed Bonderman's pessimism. Rubenstein said at the Hong Kong conference that the recession will last for at least a year, and that U.S. unemployment may rise as high as 10 percent.

 

U.S. housing prices may have ``a significant way'' to fall because they're still high by historical standards and sliding rents are reducing the allure of home ownership, said Bonderman, whose firm's funds oversee more than $50 billion.

 

Prices `Way High'

 

TPG's fourth buyout fund, launched in 2003, has delivered average annual returns of 31 percent, according to the California Public Employees' Retirement System, an investor in a number of TPG's funds.

 

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas slid 17 percent in August as foreclosures rose, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller price index.

 

``Housing prices are still way high by historical standards,'' Bonderman said.