Économie mondiale ​

[andre md]

L'êconomie c'est comme la météo on se trompe souvent dans les prévisions. 

 

[Né entre les rapides]

il y a 29 minutes, andre md a dit :

L'êconomie c'est comme la météo on se trompe souvent dans les prévisions. 

 

La science économique ne sert pas seulement à faire des prévisions.  C'est un ensemble d'outils d'analyse et de décision pour les gouvernements, les entreprises et les particuliers, autrement dit les acteurs économiques.  Les prévisions, c'est la projection dans le temps en fonction des comportements et des phénomènes observés.  Des raffinements dans la compréhension des relations entre les variables pertinentes améliorent la qualité des prévisions, mais rien n'est jamais définitif.  Des événements inattendus viennent changer la donne, que ce soit la guerre, des désastres naturels, des découvertes scientifiques entraînant des progrès technologiques, et même (dans l'histoire) la "découverte" de "nouveaux continents".  L'évolution démographique est aussi depuis longtemps une considération importante dans les transformations économiques, et les économistes en tiennent pleinement compte.

A tout cela s'ajoute l'influence profonde d'idéologies différentes, souvent opposées, ce qui explique qu'un même événement ou phénomène suscite des analyses, des prescriptions et des prévisions qui varient beaucoup parmi ceux qui exercent la profession d'économiste: des intérêts puissants sont en jeu.  Ce n'est pas juste (et même pas tellement) une question de se "tromper" ou pas.  

[andre md]

1 hour ago, Né entre les rapides said:

La science économique ne sert pas seulement à faire des prévisions.  C'est un ensemble d'outils d'analyse et de décision pour les gouvernements, les entreprises et les particuliers, autrement dit les acteurs économiques.  Les prévisions, c'est la projection dans le temps en fonction des comportements et des phénomènes observés.  Des raffinements dans la compréhension des relations entre les variables pertinentes améliorent la qualité des prévisions, mais rien n'est jamais définitif.  Des événements inattendus viennent changer la donne, que ce soit la guerre, des désastres naturels, des découvertes scientifiques entraînant des progrès technologiques, et même (dans l'histoire) la "découverte" de "nouveaux continents".  L'évolution démographique est aussi depuis longtemps une considération importante dans les transformations économiques, et les économistes en tiennent pleinement compte.

A tout cela s'ajoute l'influence profonde d'idéologies différentes, souvent opposées, ce qui explique qu'un même événement ou phénomène suscite des analyses, des prescriptions et des prévisions qui varient beaucoup parmi ceux qui exercent la profession d'économiste: des intérêts puissants sont en jeu.  Ce n'est pas juste (et même pas tellement) une question de se "tromper" ou pas.  

Bref ca reste comme la météo. Pas évident de prevoir exactement ce qui va arriver. 

 

[Rocco]

Aujourd'hui.

[Né entre les rapides]

Il y a 6 heures, Rocco a dit :

Aujourd'hui.

Globally, no real loss of wealth, just a negative variation of the valuation of income producing assets.  Yet, this negative variation, just like its opposite (an increase) has real implications for the economy.  Let's see how this works out:

- The owners of those assets, a.k.a. stockholders, feel poorer (not as wealthy as they thought they were), producing a negative "wealth effect", a classic driver of consumption and investment.

- Some (probably many) stockholders were highly leveraged (they had borrowed heavily to acquire shares which values have now tumbled, leaving them in dire trouble, perhaps even ruined.

- Corporations will find it more difficult to raise funds to make new investments.

- A rush to sell shares could lead to a descending spiral.

_ Likewise, aggregate consumption and investment could fall (and with it, employment and government revenues).

- The above scenario is basically what happened, to extreme extent, during the Great Depression.

- However, today's governments  know better.  They will not let the economy into a free fall.  They will intervene well before the bottom is reached.  But for now they are not unhappy with  the stock market decline, nor with the decline in house prices.  They want demand to come down, to bring down inflation  -- even if causes some pain. This is viewed  as being preferable to letting inflation uncontrolled.

My own take: do not panic.  Accept that some of the previous gains were illusionary.  Economic fundamentals in Canada and the USA remain strong, especially when comparing with Europe and China, on most accounts.  At the personal level, if you own stocks, should you sell?  -- Of course there is no simple answer, and I do not wish or dare to venture any further.  Do your own homework!

[mtlurb]

These Are the Cities With the Most Millionaires, According to a New Study

Tue, September 13, 2022 at 8:00 PM

In a new report detailing the world cities with the most millionaires, the US holds half of the top 10 spots, Bloomberg reportedTuesday morning. Unsurprisingly, New Yorksits at the very top of the list, with 345,600 high-net-worth individuals. Tokyo (304,900 HNWIs) and the Bay Area (276,400 HNWIs) came in second and third, respectively. The top five were rounded out by London(272,400 HNWIs) and Singapore (249,800 HNWIs).

More from Robb Report

Yankees Legend Jorge Posada Is Selling His Waterfront Florida Mansion for $20 Million

A $2.85 Million California Ranch That Once Belonged to Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher Hits the Market

Billie Holiday's NYC Townhouse Just Hit the Market for $14 Million

Despite those impressive numbers, seven of the top 10 cities actually saw a loss of high-net-worth residents in the first half of 2022. At the very top, New York saw a 12 percent drop in its HNWI population, while Tokyo saw an 8 percent decrease. The Bay Area, one of the few metropolises to see growth this year, experienced a 4 percent jump. The only other two cities in the top 10 to see positive movement were Singapore (a 1 percent increase) and Houston (which sits at No. 8 in the ranking and saw a 6 percent increase).

Henley & Partners, the residency advisory firm that compiled the report, also highlighted the 25 fastest-growing cities in the world in terms of their HNWI population. Those with robust oil and gas industries make up a large part of that list, with Riyadh coming in first, followed by Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates.

As far as the United States is concerned, Austin is the first American city to appear on the fastest-growing list, as its HNWI numbers have increased 14 percent in 2022 alone, with 15,800 such people residing in the Texas city. As many companies move their offices to Texas and Florida, a number of other cities in both states are also seeing a rise in high-net-worth individuals moving to them, Henley & Partners noted. West Palm Beach and Miami, in particular, were two standout Florida cities.

Of course, many HNWIs split their time between cities, so you don’t actually have to choose just one millionaire-laden area to settle down in.

Check out the full list of the top 20 cities for millionaires below.

New York

Tokyo

San Francisco Bay Area

London

Singapore

Los Angeles and Malibu

Chicago

Houston

Beijing

Shanghai

Sydney

Hong Kong

Frankfurt

Toronto

Zurich

Seoul

Melbourne

Dallas and Fort Worth

Geneva

Paris

Sign up for Robb Report's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cities-most-millionaires-according-study-000000368.html

[Né entre les rapides]

Il y a 1 heure, mtlurb a dit :

These Are the Cities With the Most Millionaires, According to a New Study

Tue, September 13, 2022 at 8:00 PM

In a new report detailing the world cities with the most millionaires, the US holds half of the top 10 spots, Bloomberg reportedTuesday morning. Unsurprisingly, New Yorksits at the very top of the list, with 345,600 high-net-worth individuals. Tokyo (304,900 HNWIs) and the Bay Area (276,400 HNWIs) came in second and third, respectively. The top five were rounded out by London(272,400 HNWIs) and Singapore (249,800 HNWIs).

More from Robb Report

Yankees Legend Jorge Posada Is Selling His Waterfront Florida Mansion for $20 Million

A $2.85 Million California Ranch That Once Belonged to Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher Hits the Market

Billie Holiday's NYC Townhouse Just Hit the Market for $14 Million

Despite those impressive numbers, seven of the top 10 cities actually saw a loss of high-net-worth residents in the first half of 2022. At the very top, New York saw a 12 percent drop in its HNWI population, while Tokyo saw an 8 percent decrease. The Bay Area, one of the few metropolises to see growth this year, experienced a 4 percent jump. The only other two cities in the top 10 to see positive movement were Singapore (a 1 percent increase) and Houston (which sits at No. 8 in the ranking and saw a 6 percent increase).

Henley & Partners, the residency advisory firm that compiled the report, also highlighted the 25 fastest-growing cities in the world in terms of their HNWI population. Those with robust oil and gas industries make up a large part of that list, with Riyadh coming in first, followed by Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates.

As far as the United States is concerned, Austin is the first American city to appear on the fastest-growing list, as its HNWI numbers have increased 14 percent in 2022 alone, with 15,800 such people residing in the Texas city. As many companies move their offices to Texas and Florida, a number of other cities in both states are also seeing a rise in high-net-worth individuals moving to them, Henley & Partners noted. West Palm Beach and Miami, in particular, were two standout Florida cities.

Of course, many HNWIs split their time between cities, so you don’t actually have to choose just one millionaire-laden area to settle down in.

Check out the full list of the top 20 cities for millionaires below.

New York

Tokyo

San Francisco Bay Area

London

Singapore

Los Angeles and Malibu

Chicago

Houston

Beijing

Shanghai

Sydney

Hong Kong

Frankfurt

Toronto

Zurich

Seoul

Melbourne

Dallas and Fort Worth

Geneva

Paris

Sign up for Robb Report's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cities-most-millionaires-according-study-000000368.html

The number of HNWIs officially residing in a city is one thing, but the extent and geographic location of the underlying economic activities is another.  Stiln, it can be "nice to have" such billionnaires residing in your city; they will likely spend lots of money locally, and will necessarily pay hefty property taxes on their residence.

[andre md]

3 hours ago, mtlurb said:

These Are the Cities With the Most Millionaires, According to a New Study

Tue, September 13, 2022 at 8:00 PM

In a new report detailing the world cities with the most millionaires, the US holds half of the top 10 spots, Bloomberg reportedTuesday morning. Unsurprisingly, New Yorksits at the very top of the list, with 345,600 high-net-worth individuals. Tokyo (304,900 HNWIs) and the Bay Area (276,400 HNWIs) came in second and third, respectively. The top five were rounded out by London(272,400 HNWIs) and Singapore (249,800 HNWIs).

More from Robb Report

Yankees Legend Jorge Posada Is Selling His Waterfront Florida Mansion for $20 Million

A $2.85 Million California Ranch That Once Belonged to Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher Hits the Market

Billie Holiday's NYC Townhouse Just Hit the Market for $14 Million

Despite those impressive numbers, seven of the top 10 cities actually saw a loss of high-net-worth residents in the first half of 2022. At the very top, New York saw a 12 percent drop in its HNWI population, while Tokyo saw an 8 percent decrease. The Bay Area, one of the few metropolises to see growth this year, experienced a 4 percent jump. The only other two cities in the top 10 to see positive movement were Singapore (a 1 percent increase) and Houston (which sits at No. 8 in the ranking and saw a 6 percent increase).

Henley & Partners, the residency advisory firm that compiled the report, also highlighted the 25 fastest-growing cities in the world in terms of their HNWI population. Those with robust oil and gas industries make up a large part of that list, with Riyadh coming in first, followed by Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates.

As far as the United States is concerned, Austin is the first American city to appear on the fastest-growing list, as its HNWI numbers have increased 14 percent in 2022 alone, with 15,800 such people residing in the Texas city. As many companies move their offices to Texas and Florida, a number of other cities in both states are also seeing a rise in high-net-worth individuals moving to them, Henley & Partners noted. West Palm Beach and Miami, in particular, were two standout Florida cities.

Of course, many HNWIs split their time between cities, so you don’t actually have to choose just one millionaire-laden area to settle down in.

Check out the full list of the top 20 cities for millionaires below.

New York

Tokyo

San Francisco Bay Area

London

Singapore

Los Angeles and Malibu

Chicago

Houston

Beijing

Shanghai

Sydney

Hong Kong

Frankfurt

Toronto

Zurich

Seoul

Melbourne

Dallas and Fort Worth

Geneva

Paris

Sign up for Robb Report's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cities-most-millionaires-according-study-000000368.html

Surpris que Miami n'est pas dans la liste. Beaucoup de millionaire d'amerique latine se retrouve a miami. Floride et Texas attire beaucoup de riches avec aucun impot sur le revenu. A part bien sure l'impot féderal. 

[Né entre les rapides]

il y a 9 minutes, andre md a dit :

Surpris que Miami n'est pas dans la liste. Beaucoup de millionaire d'amerique latine se retrouve a miami. Floride et Texas attire beaucoup de riches avec aucun impot sur le revenu. A part bien sure l'impot féderal. 

Miami: pas encore assez, ou bien l'argent des millionnaires latino-américains habitant à Miami est peut-être mieux caché.  Ce ne sont pas tous les millionnaires qui se vantent!

Texas: Houston et Dallas/Fort Worth sont sur la liste.  

Impôt sur le revenu: distinct de l'impôt sur la fortune.  Un individu peut être millionnaire/milliardaire sans déclarer de revenu imposable ou si peu. 

[mtlurb]

Il y a 8 heures, andre md a dit :

Surpris que Miami n'est pas dans la liste. Beaucoup de millionaire d'amerique latine se retrouve a miami. Floride et Texas attire beaucoup de riches avec aucun impot sur le revenu. A part bien sure l'impot féderal. 

Oui beaucoup de millionaires de l'Amérique latine, mais est-ce qu'ils sont des citoyens ou juste des résidents temporaires. Est-ce que l'étude en tiens compte? Monaco n'est pas sur la liste non plus et elle a beaucoup de riches russes et arabes.