L'industrie aérienne américaine connaîtra une vague de faillites importante, selon un

[mtlurb]

L'industrie aérienne pique du nez

 

Les hausses importantes du prix du carburant, ces derniers mois, font mal à l'industrie aérienne mondiale, qui traverse une véritable crise.

Un Boeing 777 New Livery arborant le nouveau logo de Delta Air Lines

 

Vendredi, l'industrie aérienne américaine a publié une étude qui prévoit une vague de faillites importante parmi les transporteurs aériens des États-Unis si les prix du carburant demeurent aussi élevés.

 

L'analyse de l'industrie aérienne commerciale américaine, effectuée par Airline Forecasts et Business Traveller, estime que la flambée des prix du carburant engendrera des hausses de coûts de 30 milliards de dollars américains pour l'industrie aérienne aux États-Unis alors que sa capacité d'augmentation des frais aux voyageurs excède à peine 4 milliards de dollars.

 

Réductions de personnel et de vols au menu

 

Pendant ce temps, à New York, le transporteur aérien US Airways annonçait une nouvelle série de mesures d'économies, qui comprend une réduction de 6 % à 8 % de ses vols intérieurs, qui se traduira par au moins 1700 mises à pied au sein de son personnel.

 

La situation est pire encore chez Delta Air Lines, qui a annoncé vendredi qu'il prévoyait doubler le nombre de mises à pied annoncées au mois de mars dernier pour faire face à la crise qui mine les performances économiques de l'entreprise. La compagnie aérienne a offert dernièrement un programme de départ volontaire à plus de la moitié de ses 55 000 employés.

 

Craintes en Europe

 

La situation n'est guère mieux en Europe, où plusieurs compagnies aériennes, telles que KLM, Air France, Lufthansa et Austrian Airlines en sont à leur seconde augmentation de la surcharge pour carburant qu'elles imposent à leurs passagers. Comme en Amérique, plusieurs transporteurs européens se voient obligés de réduire leur nombre de vols ou carrément de déclarer faillite.

 

Selon la directrice générale d'Air France Canada, Bénédicte Duval, citée par la Presse canadienne, l'industrie doit s'attendre à ce que la situation actuelle entraîne une vague de faillites, de fusions-acquisitions et de consolidations.

 

Au moins 28 compagnies aériennes sont disparues dans le monde au cours des six derniers mois, a rapporté pour sa part Jean-Marc Eustache, président et chef de la direction du transporteur montréalais Transat.

 

Les transporteurs canadiens ne sont pas épargnés

 

Bien que chez Transat la situation ne soit pas catastrophique dans l'immédiat, selon la Presse canadienne, Jean-Marc Eustache a néanmoins évoqué, jeudi, lors d'une téléconférence sur les résultats du deuxième trimestre, une éventuelle réduction de la taille de l'entreprise si la situation ne se stabilise pas. Les bénéfices de Transat ont en effet diminué de 24,4 % au deuxième trimestre 2008 par rapport au deuxième trimestre de 2007.

 

Chez Air Canada, le transporteur impose depuis mai des suppléments carburant sur tous ses vols intérieurs et internationaux pour tenter d'éponger les coûts du carburant.

 

Selon le secrétaire général se l'Organisation de l'aviation civile internationale, chaque hausse de 1 $US du prix du baril de pétrole brut sur les marchés se traduit par des coûts additionnels de 1,6 milliard de dollars américains pour l'industrie aérienne mondiale.

 

http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/Economie-Affaires/2008/06/13/003-crise-indutrie-aerienne.shtml?ref=rss

[Atze]

U.S. airline stocks can be hazardous to your wealth

 

Wed Jun 11, 2008 12:59pm EDT

By Mark McSherry - Analysis

 

NEW YORK (Reuters) - When equity analysts qualify their recommendations with warnings like "investing in airline stocks is very risky" and "trading airline stocks can be hazardous to your wealth," you kind of get the picture.

 

The warnings, which appeared in recent notes from Lehman Brothers and UBS, respectively, are well placed.

 

Shares of most major U.S. airlines have plummeted during the past year amid record oil prices and a weakening economy, wiping out billions of dollars in stock market value.

 

Take United Airlines parent UAL Corp (UAUA.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz). Its stock has fallen from $51.60 last October to under $8 on Wednesday.

 

Then there is AMR Corp (AMR.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), parent of American Airlines. It has seen its share price fall from $29.32 last July to around $6.35 on Wednesday.

 

Some experts believe U.S. airline stocks have now become the domain only of professional traders and speculators who can profit from short-term price movements, or short sellers who make money if stocks decline.

 

"For long-term investors, these are not investments that they should be looking at," said Brian Nelson, analyst at Morningstar.

 

"Airline stocks are of a different breed -- the structural features are horrible in terms of the industry," Nelson added.

 

Sky-high fuel prices and a weakening U.S. economy have stalled the U.S. airline industry's modest recovery from the 2001-2006 downturn. Oil prices have roughly doubled in the past year.

 

To survive, U.S. airlines are slimming down. They have reduced services and capacity, cut jobs, hiked fares, and added new fees and surcharges. But unless oil prices ease soon, some experts believe these measures might not be enough.

 

A MATTER OF TIME

 

At least seven small airlines have filed for bankruptcy or stopped operating in recent months.

 

And if oil prices do not retreat soon, some analysts believe it is a matter of time before a major airline files for bankruptcy.

 

"The state of the airline industry is one of disrepair and the industry faces a crisis as oil prices soar," said Calyon Securities analyst Ray Neidl.

 

Meanwhile, most airline shares keep falling.

 

The stock of Delta Air Lines (DAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which has announced plans to acquire Northwest Airlines (NWA.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), has declined from $21.80 last July to less than $6 today. Over the same period, Northwest shares have fallen from $24.23 to around $6.50.

 

Continental Airlines (CAL.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) has dropped from $38.61 to around $12.50 in the last 11 months and US Airways Group (LCC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) has plummeted from $36.19 to around $3.50 over the same period.

 

Most U.S. airline stocks have fallen so much that Germany's Lufthansa (LHAG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) now has a stock market value worth more than AMR, UAL, Delta, Northwest, Continental and US Airways combined.

 

Indeed, Southwest Airlines (LUV.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which has a history of successfully hedging against high fuel costs -- reflected in a stronger stock price -- also has a stock market value higher than its six rivals put together. Southwest shares have declined much less than its rivals, from $16.96 last August to under $14 on Wednesday.

 

"Airline equities could go to zero ... you are betting that crude oil could fall," said Morningstar's Nelson.

 

"Crude oil could definitely fall at some point -- however airline stocks could very well be bankrupt well before then," Nelson added.

 

JP Morgan analyst Jamie Baker has estimated a collective loss of $7.2 billion for U.S. airlines this year.

 

WORTH A GAMBLE

 

And yet there are some who believe that selected airline stocks are worth a gamble.

 

In a note to clients last week, Lehman Brothers' Gary Chase, the analyst who said "investing in airline stocks is very risky," also said his firm sees "substantial upside potential in selected airline equities as the industry undertakes an historic restructuring."

 

Chase wrote: "Risks are extreme, but we believe justified by substantial upside potential," adding that his favorites are Delta and Northwest as they have the "best balance sheets, liquidity, and cash burn profiles."

 

Neidl of Calyon Securities said U.S. airline stocks have become merely "trading vehicles" for professionals who know what they are doing.

 

"We continue to believe that the major carriers will make it through what will be a difficult 2008 and that as trading vehicles the stocks will be attractive acquisitions at current low prices -- but the time is too early," said Neidl.

 

Morningstar's Nelson agreed, saying U.S. airline stocks have not yet reflected the rising risk of bankruptcy.

 

Even at their current low levels, Nelson added: "I still think most of them are overvalued."

 

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1147489320080611?sp=true (15/06/2008 01H58)