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(Courtesy of The Financial Post) :eek: I wish I knew about these people a little sooner. Man I need money now to buy some shares. I just hope its not to late.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The credit crunch may only be in its early stages and a bigger contraction in lending in coming months could have "serious implications" for the U.S. economy, Standard & Poor's Rating Services said Friday. While politicians and others have complained that banks aren't lending, the data on credit outstanding credit in the U.S. only tenuously supports this idea, the rating agency said. See related story. "What's behind the apparent difference between perception and reality?" Standard & Poor's credit analyst Tanya Azarchs said. "It may be that, while growth in overall credit was positive through at least third-quarter 2008, it has risen at a slower pace than at any time since 1945 -- far below the 8%-10% rate in most years." Banks are replacing loans as they mature, but there's little net new loan growth, she noted. "That could mean that the slowdown in lending is just an opening act, and a true credit crunch may yet take the stage," Azarchs warned. Banks are making fewer and fewer commitments to lend, and new issues of bonds and securitized assets have slowed to a trickle, the analyst said. "This portends a contraction in total credit available in the coming months," she wrote. "Since this lack of lending may have serious implications for the economy, the U.S. government has been devising policies that would encourage banks to lend." Given such pressure, S&P is focusing more on whether banks are free to make loans they think are prudent and on the health of the overall economy, Azarchs said. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Credit-crunch-may-only-have/story.aspx?guid={4F0DA616-A789-49A7-9EFE-A65C5A0986F9}

TD and Royal downgraded to sell Posted: January 16, 2009, 8:47 AM by Jonathan Ratner Both Royal Bank and Toronto-Dominion Bank were downgraded to a “sell” at Dundee Securities on expectations for weaker credit quality, bringing them in line with the firm’s bearish view on the sector as a whole and its recommendations for all of the Big 5 banks. Despite significant deterioration in its U.S. loan portfolio’s credit quality, Royal’s earnings have held up reasonably well on the back of its domestic retail banking programs, analyst John Aiken told clients. However, since Canada is unlikely to escape the “economic carnage” occurring in the U.S., he said it is only a matter of time before domestic credit quality begins to weaken materially, as credit card exposures have already started to show. “Consequently, although Royal will likely fair relatively well and should retain a premium to the group, absolute risk still exists,” Mr. Aiken said, cutting his price target on the stock from $38 per share to $35. It closed at $34.04 on Thursday. His forecast for TD moves from $51 to $44 as a result of expectations for a challenged outlook in the coming quarters as a result of additional deterioration in credit quality. It ended the day at $44.05. While Mr. Aiken said TD’s operations remain strong and its long-term prospects are solid based on its U.S. growth platform, he thinks 2009 will be the second straight year of declining earnings. “TD will not be immune and we believe that there is a risk that current expectations for credit losses have a significantly greater chance of being too low rather than too conservative,” the analyst said. Mr. Aiken did upgrade Laurentian Bank from a “sell” to “neutral,” but lowered his price target from $36 to $33. The stock closed at $31.41 on Thursday. “We believe that Laurentian’s valuation is much more reasonable at these levels,” he said, adding that while the bank does not have any direct exposure to the U.S., it will still feel pain on the domestic front. In general, Mr. Aiken feels the impact of underlying economic weakness and credit woes in the U.S., which has produced an earnings drag, increased write-downs and higher loan loss provisions, has also filtered into the Canadian market and will likely linger into the first half of 2009. “Consequently, we believe that headwinds to the banks’ earnings and concerns of capital adequacy will remain in the forefront as the banks begin the journey into 2009, and with it, the remaining perils from the past year, plus those yet unknown,” he said. As a result, the analyst said now is not the time to change his cautionary stance on the sector. Instead, he said it is time to remain “selective and mindful.” Mr. Aiken suggested that strong domestic operations should bode well for the retail market leaders TD, Royal and to a lesser extent CIBC. He also expects higher provisioning will come from the U.S. exposures of TD, Royal and Bank of Montreal, as well as the ripple effects to Bank of Nova Scotia’s Latin America assets. “Overall, valuation outlook will be largely predicated on the depth and breadth of the U.S. economic slowdown,” the analyst said. “Further credit deterioration will result in higher provisions, while added margin compressions will also depress earnings, offering little justification for any meaningful near term increase in valuations.”

L'année 2009 devrait voir un nombre reccord de faillites partout dans le monde: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/More-Tribunes-Lehmans-likely-coming/story.aspx?guid={F40FA856-6FE7-4A28-82B0-6729F7E57CB5}

une des plus grandes banques américaines se dirige dangereusement vers une faillite.

Will Quebec be a gas, gas, gas? Fund managers are making big bets on juniors targeting the Utica shale region SHIRLEY WON From Wednesday's Globe and Mail May 28, 2008 at 7:21 AM EDT Quebec may seem like an unlikely hot spot for natural gas exploration, but some investors are digging deeper into unconventional resource prospects in the province. Shares of junior gas explorers targeting the Utica shale region in the St. Lawrence lowlands have surged recently, with some fund managers making big bets on potential winners. "It could be a very large gas discovery for Canada and Quebec," said Eric Sprott, chief executive officer and a manager with Sprott Asset Management Inc. "We probably started [accumulating stock] six months ago, but we went in earnest eight weeks ago." Toronto-based Sprott Asset Management, through several of its funds, holds 14 per cent of Gastem Inc., 15 per cent of Questerre Corp. and 13 per cent of Altai Resources Inc., according to Bloomberg. Forest Oil Corp. The Globe and Mail The Quebec shale play, which involves drilling for gas by fracturing dense rock, focuses on an area south of the St. Lawrence River between Montreal and Quebec City. Interest has grown in the region since April, when Forest Oil Corp., a Denver-based oil and gas company, announced a significant discovery there after testing two vertical wells. Forest Oil said its Quebec assets may hold as much as four trillion cubic feet of gas reserves, and that the Utica shale has similar rock properties to the Barnett shale in Texas - the largest U.S. onshore gas field. Quebec has been known to have natural gas reserves, but advanced horizontal drilling techniques and higher gas prices are now only making the play potentially economically viable, observers say. Forest Oil, which has several junior partners in the region, will drill three horizontal wells in Quebec this summer. It has targeted its first production for next year, and full-scale drilling for 2010. Calgary-based Talisman Energy Inc. also plans to drill in Quebec in late summer. The presence of the majors gives this play more credibility, said Wellington West Capital Markets analyst Kim Page. "Talisman has indicated it is budgeting $100- to $130-million for Quebec," Mr. Page said. "The return opportunity, if this play is commercially viable, is very high." But it is the juniors that "provide the greatest upside potential," when investing, said analyst Vic Vallance of Fraser Mackenzie Ltd. The analyst has a "buy" rating on Gastem and Questerre, saying they have properties in the "sweet spot" of the play. He has no price targets on these juniors because "it's so early stage and speculative." Montreal-based Gastem is partnered with Forest Oil, Questerre and Epsilon Energy Ltd. in the Yamaska permit of the St. Lawrence lowlands. An important catalyst for Gastem's stock could come from results of the drilling of two of Forest Oil's wells this summer, Mr. Vallance said. Forest's third well is in partnership with Junex Inc. Drilling results are also a potential catalyst for the stock of Calgary-based Questerre, which is also partnered with Talisman in its drilling program, Mr. Vallance added. Toronto-based Northern Rivers Capital Management Inc. owns 11 per cent of Gastem through its four funds. "The fact that it is in all the funds reflects how bullish we are," said Alex Ruus, a hedge fund manager with Northern Rivers. Mr. Ruus was on site when Forest Oil began drilling on Gastem's property last summer. "I became quite convinced that there was probably a commercial discovery here." It was Gastem's management that got Forest Oil interested, he added. "Forest Oil is the operator that is driving this [play], going forward." He has scenarios valuing Gastem from $1 to $40 a share, but his target is now more than $10, based on current data. The play is attractive because there is a ready-made local market, as Quebec imports gas from Western Canada, and there is a network of nearby pipelines, he said. "If this thing becomes as big as we think it will, you will see Quebec starting to export natural gas to Ontario, and New York State." Paul MacDonald, with Marvrix Fund Management Inc., sold all of his shares in Junex during their recent rally, but still holds more than 750,000 of its warrants in three Marvrix resource flow-through funds. Mr. MacDonald bought Junex at $1.25 to $1.30 a share, but the stock shot well past his near-term target of $2.25. "With the best-case assumptions, you can see $30 on Junex," he said. "But there are still risks to the downside. ... It's still high risk, high return." http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080528.wrgas28/BNStory/SpecialEvents2/Quebec/