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In past recessions, city's developers learned the effects of overbuilding the hard way. Caution is paying off this time around ELEANOR BEATON Globe and Mail Update Two years ago, Yves-André Godon was scouring Montreal for an anchor tenant for his company's proposed 400,000-square-foot downtown office tower. At the time, Montreal's office market was looking rosy. The vacancy rate was a healthy 9.3 per cent and 6 per cent of the city's available office space was being leased each quarter – a record absorption rate, Mr. Godon says. The time looked ripe for the managing director of SITQ Canada, an international real estate investment company based in Montreal, to forge ahead with the development. But Mr. Godon hesitated. Even though it had been years since the city had seen new Class A office space built, he says many large-scale tenants seemed content to stay put; SITQ was having trouble attracting an anchor tenant quickly enough. “We didn't want to do anything on a speculative basis,” he says. Given the economy's subsequent downturn, Mr. Godon's instincts appear to have been right. It's a cautionary stance that was learned the hard way. During past recessions, overbuilding caused Montreal's office market to suffer more than in other parts of the country. But today, as other major cities contend with rising vacancy rates and the simultaneous delivery of millions of square feet of new office space, the kind of discipline that Mr. Godon displayed is helping to shield Montreal from the same drastic effects of the downturn. Montreal developers “lived through a lot of pain,” says Jean Laurin, president and chief executive officer of real estate advisory Devencore Ltd. “Few developers are going ahead until they find tenants.” As a result, “we have not had any exposure to overbuilding,” adds Robert Mercier, president of real estate services firm DTZ Barnicke (Quebec). The dearth of new developments is not the only factor. Also contributing is continued strong demand from tenants who are not players in the industries hit hardest by the downturn, such as energy, experts say. The combination means that Montreal now has one of the most stable office markets in the country. Even though at 9.7 per cent, Montreal's vacancy rate is higher than Toronto's (8.4 per cent) or Vancouver's (7.8 per cent), according to second-quarter figures from real estate firm CB Richard Ellis, downtown office vacancy rates in Montreal have risen less than in other major Canadian cities. Montreal's sublet space as a percentage of overall vacancy – a leading indicator of the health of the office leasing market – is, at 11 per cent, far lower than in other major cities, a sign that most tenants are holding onto their space, rather than putting it back on the market. The city is contending with a much smaller rise in sublet space than other cities. Insiders estimate that 10,000 to 15,000 square feet of sublease space comes back on the market each week. Unlike Calgary and Toronto, what little sublet space Montreal does put back into the market isn't competing for tenants with a glut of brand-new supply. Other than a recently constructed 840,000-square-foot Bell Canada Campus, the city has seen virtually no new office construction in recent years. In contrast, Toronto's central business district is facing the delivery of up to 3.1 million square feet of new office space, according to CB Richard Ellis. With little new development in the downtown in recent years, large-scale tenants in Montreal have few rental options, and therefore tend to stay put, further stabilizing the market. “Leasing is very strong on the renewal front,” Mr. Laurin says. Montreal also benefits from a diverse user base, says Brett Miller, executive vice-president of CB Richard Ellis in Quebec. He points out that the city's major employers represent solidly performing industries from the engineering, IT and video gaming industries. While Montreal may be performing well in comparison to other major cities, industry veterans aren't forgetting the lessons learned from the past. Developers such as Mr. Godon aren't planning any new developments until the economy recovers. “We're back to Real Estate 101,” he says. “That means focusing on serving the tenants we have, rather than looking for new projects.”