montréal REM de l'Est

[SameGuy]

And one more time for the people in the cheap seats: $10 billion would purchase dedicated rights-of-way for every exo line, electrify and double or triple track the network, fully grade-separate every line at every incursion point, purchase a new EMU fleet, and rebuild every station in the exo system up to modern, accessible standards. That would serve the entire region, not just Destination Chantal Rouleau.

[FrodoMTL]

37 minutes ago, SameGuy said:

And one more time for the people in the cheap seats: $ 10 billion would purchase dedicated rights-of-way for every exo line, electrify and double or triple track the network, fully grade-separate every line at every incursion point, purchase a new EMU fleet, and rebuild every station in the exo system up to modern, accessible standards. That would serve the entire region, not just Destination Chantal Rouleau.

Has AMT / Exo come up with their own plan for modernization? Similar to Metrolinx's GO RER / GO Expansion plan released in 2015 and is now underway in Toronto? I'd be all for spending $ 10 billion + on upgrading the existing commuter network up to RER standards, but I have yet to see any credible / comprehensively regional proposal being put forth by ARTM or Exo, that are fully costed and shovel ready. So far the most notable project taken by ARTM is regional fare integration (ongoing). Oh and the Chrono transit app which basically replicates what Google Maps and Transit apps do already.

When the bureaucrats at ARTM / Exo manage to get their acts together and actually take a leadership role on regional transport planning and execution , I'd be the first one onboard. Metrolinx in Toronto has had a myriad of issues like political interference, but at least they've put forth very solid business cases since 2015 for 12 major projects that fall under the GO RER expansion project, including electrification which will be starting next year:

http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/benefitscases/GO_Expansion_FBC_ExecSummary.pdf

http://www.metrolinx.com/en/greaterregion/projects/go-expansion.aspx

Modifié 6 mars 2021 par FrodoMTL

[Decel]

il y a 35 minutes, SameGuy a dit :

And one more time for the people in the cheap seats: $10 billion would purchase dedicated rights-of-way for every exo line, electrify and double or triple track the network, fully grade-separate every line at every incursion point, purchase a new EMU fleet, and rebuild every station in the exo system up to modern, accessible standards. That would serve the entire region, not just Destination Chantal Rouleau.

Interesting argument, but it's not a linear comparison:

• The Quebec government isn't spending 10 billion, but more like 2.5 - 4.5b$, so you can only use as much to improve exo.
• Are you sure the CN/CP will be willing to sell the network segments the EXO lines are operating on? If they are selling, be assured that they will milk you dry. Why do you think the REM didn't get to the airport from the south?
• On a passenger/km basis, what is the operating cost of the EXO routes, even after the proposed improvements? Will it be 0.72$/km like the REM is offering?
• How long will refactoring all the routes take? Look at all the drama shutting down the DM line for 2-3 years did, and extrapolate that to the rest of the exo network. New is easier than remodel.
• Finally, before REM1, the AMT has always talked up about modernizing the DM line, even up to buy the rights to the first segment of the tracks out of the mountain. It never happened.

[SameGuy]

AMT (and by extension, RTM) in fact owned the DM line and sold it to CDPQ. 

Yes, I over-simplified my elaboration. My main point is that we are jumping in to take anything being offered instead of doing things properly and with all players acting in concert to build the best system. We are essentially not marrying Mr. Right, but settling for Mr. Right-Now.

[Decel]

il y a 48 minutes, SameGuy a dit :

AMT (and by extension, RTM) in fact owned the DM line and sold it to CDPQ. 

Yes, I over-simplified my elaboration. My main point is that we are jumping in to take anything being offered instead of doing things properly and with all players acting in concert to build the best system. We are essentially not marrying Mr. Right, but settling for Mr. Right-Now.

Yes, AMT sold the line after it did diddly-squat with it for decades. I rode the line since the late 90s and have not seen any credible evolution.

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2014/02/28/lamt-acquiert-la-ligne-de-trains-de-deux-montagnes

Citation

«En réalité, cette acquisition nous permettra d'effectuer des économies annuelles de l'ordre de 5,2 millions $, d'augmenter notre flexibilité sur cette ligne et d'assurer un meilleur service à nos clients», a ajouté M. Girard.

What he said never happened.

We've waited for Mr. Right over decades and he never showed up. I'm a hopeless romantic at heart, but we need pragmatic solutions, which Mr. Right-Now is offering.

[SameGuy]

8 minutes ago, Decel said:

Yes, AMT sold the line after it did diddly-squat with it for decades. I rode the line since the late 90s and have not seen any credible evolution.

https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2014/02/28/lamt-acquiert-la-ligne-de-trains-de-deux-montagnes

What he said never happened.

We've waited for Mr. Right over decades and he never showed up. I'm a hopeless romantic at heart, but we need pragmatic solutions, which Mr. Right-Now is offering.

🙂 Which is exactly what I’ve been saying to the fully-anti-REM people since we started to learn more and more of the REM-A decisions and priorities. I recognized all the shortcomings and fully expect we will keep finding more as time goes on, but if we would rather wait for the government alone to build a system serving the airport and western half of the metropolis, we’d be waiting a long, LONG time. Like… forever.

 

[Né entre les rapides]

Consistent with all my thinking ever since the REM de l'Est project was announced by the CDPQ-i along with Mr. Legault, Ms. Plante at al., I remain unconvinced that the project will actually proceed in its original form.  I think it is even possible that irreconcilable differences force the whole project to be shelved altogether, to be followed by yet more "studies" on how best to meet the goals assigned to it. (I know that nobody wants to hear that) 

I do not buy the argument that we face a "take it or leave it" situation.  Here is why: the "take it" option does not exist anymore in its original form; revisions to the project, whatever they turn out to be, will modify (slightly, or more likely substantially) the envisioned arrangements (which were never made public btw) between the CDPQ-i and the government.  The CDPQ-i will certainly maintain its goal of obtaining a given rate of return on its investment.   The government will then have to decide (once again) whether it is prepared to agree to the revised conditions and their financial (and other) implications.  There is no asssurance that they would (agree).  It would depend on 1) the extent of the likely additional costs; and 2) the popular acceptance (aka the acceptability) of the revised project.  There would be no point in acting like an enlightened despot and force a project against the will of the people. By contrast, the context for the approval by the previous Liberal government of the "first" REM was much more favourable. 

Alternatively, the CDPQ-i might find through "the consultations process" that no viable options exist within the parameters given by the government, and then gracefully exits from the project.  The result would be the same as in  one of the above scenarios, except that the government would (perhaps?) bear less of the blame for the failure. 

I also know that some would rather have something, anything, for example an elevated line downtown, rather than "nothing and wait for another 50 years".  But I do not share the view that rejecting the REM de l'Est project would mean an end to any alternative transit projects serving this part of Montreal.  The CDPQ-i is not the culprit.  It has to abide by its mandate of making money on its investments.  Generally, governments can intervene and fill the gap, by providing financial contributions and other benefits.  (That was the case for REM 1).  But there are limits, there are cases where the  gap to be filled is too wide (i.e. the externalities, or social benefits, accruing from a project are insufficient to justify additional public investment).  Obviously, such a call involves political calculations beyond "pure" welfare economics.    

In essence, this REM de l'Est project is hitting a "snag" due to the major complications envisioned in digging a tunnel in the downtown section  -- thus the initial proposal for an elevated line, which (unsurprisingly) lead to an uproar and widespread opposition.  Likewise, subsequent alternatives suggested on this mtlurb forum were met by credible objections.  No consensus is emerging.

Only time will tell where all this leads up to.  Certainly not tomorrow.  Perhaps before the next provincial elections, but I would rather bet for a ulterior date.  

[Rocco]

No consensus is needed. The REM de l'Est will plow on as the original REM did. They dont owe an apology to anyone and this will be fast-tracked. They have already chosen that the downtown section will be aerial. They wont go for more studies to please the crybabies. This is CDPQi. Les chiens aboient, la caravane passe. Legault will make this a personal project, trust me.

[Decel]

il y a 54 minutes, Né entre les rapides a dit :

I do not buy the argument that we face a "take it or leave it" situation.

Even though you say this, most of your text describes the leave it scenario (ie: the project not moving forward).

The take it in take it or leave it is essentially an aerial segment on R-L, one of the 4 probable scenario groups being debated: 

1. Aerial (which opens the whole design debate)
2. Underground (obviously not bound to R-L anymore, but in the vicinity)
3. Aerial elsewhere than on R-L
4. Cut short (stopping at Berri being the most likely variant)

We're not even discussing the other potentially problematic parts of the network being proposed.

[Né entre les rapides]

il y a 17 minutes, Rocco a dit :

No consensus is needed. The REM de l'Est will plow on as the original REM did. They dont owe an apology to anyone and this will be fast-tracked. They have already chosen that the downtown section will be aerial. They wont go for more studies to please the crybabies. This is CDPQi. Les chiens aboient, la caravane passe. Legault will make this a personal project, trust me.

- Consensus not required: true.

- Who are "they"  -- the CDPQ-i, the government  or both? 

- I am afraid that the "crybabies" include a lot of influential persons and firms, so...

- "This is CDPQ-i": do you mean a kind  of an invicible army?  Normally, it takes a long succession of impressive victories before earning such a reputation. 

- "Legault will make this a personal project":  I just wonder why he would expose himself so much, on a project so prone to controversies now and in the future.   In addition, I find that his government has rather shown a tendency to compromise, change its mindset, when circumstances warranted it.  Not the kind of government that goes straight ahead despite all objections.