YUL - Nouveau terminal

[JB667]

My question is the following ;

Since Dorval is nearing capacity according to gross projections from the 70’s when Mirabel was built (aka the 20 000 000 passengers a year) , what is going to happen when we eventually reach the capacity that these new investments will create ? I’m no expert on airport infrastructure but I’m curious about this .

Maybe Dorval won’t reach its new capacity before 2075-2100 , but what are going to do then ? Does anyone have an idea of how many passengers a year , all current and future investments included Dorval will be able to handle ? 

[p_xavier]

44 minutes ago, GoToTrudeau said:

Je n'aime pas du tout cette idée. Ça me semble être très mauvais pour la fluidité. Normalement, ce genre de terminal devrait être relié par un train en tunnel, pas par des autobus.

 

Moi j'aime bien me déplacer dans un aéroport comme je le désire. Hors, avec le bus il va me sembler difficile et pas très agréable de faire des allers-retours entre la jetée et le terminal principal. Sans compter le niveau de confort...

 

Je comprend que l'investissement d'une navette ne tient pas la route puisqu'on prévoit éventuellement de rattacher le tout avec le terminal mais quand même. N'y a-t'il pas de meilleur solution?

À ma lecture, ce n'est que temporaire en attendant la démolition de l'aéroquai et l'érection d'un nouvel édifice qui viendrait joindre les deux.

[p_xavier]

59 minutes ago, JB667 said:

My question is the following ;

Since Dorval is nearing capacity according to gross projections from the 70’s when Mirabel was built (aka the 20 000 000 passengers a year) , what is going to happen when we eventually reach the capacity that these new investments will create ? I’m no expert on airport infrastructure but I’m curious about this .

Maybe Dorval won’t reach its new capacity before 2075-2100 , but what are going to do then ? Does anyone have an idea of how many passengers a year , all current and future investments included Dorval will be able to handle ? 

Le seul texte que j'ai lu à ce sujet :

https://www.admtl.com/en/future

Forecast traffic
• Over the next five years, traffic should grow at an average annual rate of over 4%;
• 22 million passengers in 2022 and 35 million in 2035!

 

Pour arriver à 22 en 22, il va falloir beaucoup d'annonces des transporteurs...

Modifié 1 mai 2018 par p_xavier

[Timothy]

On ‎01‎/‎05‎/‎2018 at 7:03 AM, JB667 said:

My question is the following ;

Since Dorval is nearing capacity according to gross projections from the 70’s when Mirabel was built (aka the 20 000 000 passengers a year) , what is going to happen when we eventually reach the capacity that these new investments will create ? I’m no expert on airport infrastructure but I’m curious about this .

Maybe Dorval won’t reach its new capacity before 2075-2100 , but what are going to do then ? Does anyone have an idea of how many passengers a year , all current and future investments included Dorval will be able to handle ? 

If ADM plans for larger average gate space, and for example every current Transborder CRJ-200 departure becomes a CRJ-900, and every ERJ-175 becomes a 737-800, seating capacity per departure doubles without affecting gate assignments or runway capacity, and the new terminal space will absorb the additional passenger flows. Of course the overseas model can't be so much about doubling aircraft size, the planes are already pretty big, so the capacity increase could come from a) additional departures on the North Atlantic outside of the current peak evening slots and b) new destinations (Pacific, South America) less constrained by the European time zone logistics. So 18 million passengers a year becomes 36 million...  In theory.  Meanwhile ADM retains Mirabel "in case".    

Modifié 2 mai 2018 par Timothy

[peekay]

14 hours ago, _mtler_ said:

So according to you, this trend will reverse? 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/

Number of scheduled passengers boarded by the global airline industry from 2004 to 2018 (in millions):

 

Absolutely. I see no reason as to why the airline industry (business travels) will not suffer the same fate as the retail and taxi...etc industry.

Not forward thinking is what caused blockbuster to close and Netflix took over. It'll happen slowly but it will surely happen. Why would any company spend money on business travel when you could easily video conference. I'm not talking about 2018. I am talking about 2030.

[p_xavier]

2 minutes ago, peekay said:

Absolutely. I see no reason as to why the airline industry (business travels) will not suffer the same fate as the retail and taxi...etc industry.

Not forward thinking is what caused blockbuster to close and Netflix took over. It'll happen slowly but it will surely happen. Why would any company spend money on business travel when you could easily video conference. I'm not talking about 2018. I am talking about 2030.

On a dit la même chose du télétravail pendant des décennies et ça pratiquement jamais pogné. Si c'est pas pour du business, le leasure va aller en croissance.

[peekay]

1 minute ago, p_xavier said:

On a dit la même chose du télétravail pendant des décennies et ça pratiquement jamais pogné. Si c'est pas pour du business, le leasure va aller en croissance.

Ca fait 25 ans que je suis dans le domaine. 2016 était la première année que j'avais une connexion au bureau fiable et stable pareile que si j'étais assis dans mon bureau au travaille.

Le vrai télé-travaille viens juste de débuter. Je ne fais que projéter la tendance. Je parle strictement du business travel.

[caribb]

You kinda have to look at this project like you do mutual funds. There will be good years and bad years but you continue to grow your investment regardless. Sure you make small adjustments to accomodate the down periods but over the long haul there will be continued growth as the population rises naturally. It’s been said many times YUL is roughly the same physical size as Heathtow and they have what, 60 or 70 million pax a year going through there. In 30 years or more these facilities can be expanded or adapted or yet another new terminal can be added if needed. Or if it’s much slower all this can be implemented slower or in less parts. Either way it’s better to invest in the future than be caught trying to catch up. 

[peekay]

What do you think will happen when the next recession hits? I'm sure some companies will forego business travel for virtual rooms.

Once they do, they will never go back. Again, it is a very slow process maybe 20-30 years but if we are still doing our busines travels by plane in 30 years it would mean we haven't evolved as a species.

 

[thenoflyzone]

10 hours ago, nephersir7 said:

What about the "new dedicated connection center" ? Is it for the short term or the long term?

The connection center is for the short term i believe. It's nothing big, and can be easily done in the next few years.

 

Modifié 1 mai 2018 par thenoflyzone