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Quebec Blows Past Alberta as Canada’s Newest Jobs Hotspot


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Source: Bloomberg

 

Quebec’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest on record last month while Alberta’s surged to a two-decade high, underlining the the swing in Canada’s economic momentum through the recovery from an energy crash.

 

Joblessness in the mostly French-speaking province fell to 6.2 percent in November from 6.8 percent in October, and in Alberta it climbed to 9 percent. The national jobless rate declined to 6.8 percent from 7 percent, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa.

 

“I’m stunned -- it’s a banner year” for Quebec, said Sebastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities in Montreal. He linked good times to a construction boom in his hometown, a low dollar boosting service industries and business confidence aided by provincial government budget surpluses.

 

The movement of jobs from the western oil patch to central Canada’s service and factory hubs meshed with Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s view that non-energy companies will help the world’s 10th largest economy recover over the next few years. Poloz said this week he would only cut his 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate if there was another shock like the oil crash. His next rate decision is Wednesday.

“Quebec is within a whisker of posting the lowest unemployment rate in the country, something that we haven’t seen in the 40 years of available data,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. The job report “strengthens the view that the Bank of Canada will be perfectly happy staying on the sidelines.”

 

Quebec is tied more to manufacturers like Canam Group Inc. and Montreal-based software makers, who benefit from Canada’s weaker dollar and a growing U.S. economy. South of the border, payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs, the Labor Department said, bringing the unemployment rate down to a nine-year low of 4.6 percent.

 

The province added 8,500 jobs in November and over the past 12 months the number of unemployed people has dropped by 17 percent. It wasn’t all good news: part of the reason the jobless rate fell was 20,300 dropped out of the labor force, the most since since December 2014.

 

Lavoie at Laurentian Bank said it would be “extremely surprising” for Quebec to make further major gains in the job market over the next year. The figures have yet to reflect some announced cutbacks at Bombardier Inc. that haven’t happened yet, and the U.S. might be about to get tough on Quebec’s large softwood lumber industry.

 

“There are also growing uncertainties linked to trade,” he said. “There will be duties on lumber, so that’s not going to help future job creation.”

 

The mixed pattern also showed up in the national figures. Employment climbed by 10,700 in November as 27,600 left the labor force.

 

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the jobless rate would be unchanged and employment would decline by 15,000.

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Et je lisais dans la presse ce matin que Mtl écrase le reste du Qc pour le nombre d'emplois créés depuis 1 an. Qq chose comme 60 000, contre 1000 pour Qc, et des pertes pour Sherbrooke, Saguenay, etc. Si qq peut retrouver ceci, je n'y arrive plus. Mais bref, Mtl retrouve son rôle de locomotive.

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Finalement des bonnes nouvelles pour la province!

 

Tant qu'à moi,*nous sommes dans une période de bonne nouvelle depuis 2012 environ. Il y a les nombreuses constructions autour du centre Bell, dans Griffintown, le Triangle, la construction des 2 supers hôpitaux, l'agrandissement du Jewish Hospital et de Ste-Justine, le remplacement du pont Champlain, de l'échangeur Turcot, de l'autoroute Bonaventure en superbe boulevard, du recouvrement d'une partie de Ville-Marie, de la densification dans le quartier des spectacles et de Shaughnessy village, de l'arrivée de plusieurs acheteurs étrangers etc....

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