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Good morning everyone!

 

Just thought i'd start a little discussion on the rumors we heard last year, that Air China was interested in starting a Montreal- Shanghai service in the fall of 2016

 

Does anyone have any info on that?

 

Cheers

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New destinations are always great! I'm not sure how YUL-PEK is doing right now, but I feel like they should increase the frequency on this flight before starting one from PVG.

 

On a side note, if I were to choose between Shanghai and Hong Kong, I would definitely go for Hong Kong. I guess it would be up for Air Canada or Cathay Pacific to start this!

Highly doubt that Air Canada would do it; and for Cathay Pacific, hopefully that their A350-900 or A350-1000 will maybe allow them to consider Montreal?

 

In terms of connectivity to asian destinations listed in the document indicating the number of passenger per year, HKG definitely has a much better one than both PEK and PVG.

For example, for the flights to BKK, there are at least 26 daily flights from HKG compared to approximately 6 from PEK and approximately 13 from PVG.

Same goes for MNL, where there are at least 17 daily flights for HKG compared to 3 at PEK and 3 at PVG.

 

Just an observation, in the past two years, the amount of people going in South Asia from Montreal seems to have increased significantly!

Just in my group of friends (early 20's), I know a least 30 people leaving for Bangkok, Thailand and a few leaving for Bali, Indonesia.

It would be really interesting to see updated numbers for the quantity of passengers to international destinations!

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Air Canada's secret projet is to cancel all flights from Montreal, build a high speed train direct to Pearson and have everyone flying from there.

They will hold on their argument of the "market size" (wrongly) to justify this...

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I highly doubt we will see CA operate PVG-YUL anytime soon. Several things here.

 

First the route is supposedly starting in September 2016, and no official announcement has been made by Air China. Last year this time, PEK-YUL was already officially announced. Not much time left, and i dont see them starting it during the winter season (Oct to March). So at best, it's not happening before April 2017.

 

Also, these new route applications are part of the turf war that is going on in China, between Air China, Hainan, China Eastern and China Southern. They all want to expand internationally, and due to China's one route one airline policy, it's pretty much first come first serve. This is why half a dozen or so new routes from China to North America were applied for or announced in the last year, including the potential PVG-YUL. Several of them have already been canceled/postponed (PVG-SJC, CAN-YYZ) leading me to believe that the Chinese carriers are skipping a few steps between route application and starting the route. (see below)

 

Second, someone on airliners said that the Canada-China bilateral is restricted to a certain amount of flights every weekly (no way to verify the actual number, as the frequency allocation on these air agreements are confidential, but 100x weekly was thrown in there. The figure could be less). Currently, there are 83x flights a week between Canada and China (not including Hong Kong, as the latter negociates its own agreements). 3x weekly HU PEK-YYC will start soon, bringing the total to 86, and XiamenAir will soon start Xiamen-YVR, bringing the total to 89x weekly. Air China will also briefly increase PEK-YVR to 17x weekly instead of 14x, making it 92x weekly. So not much room left in the bilateral for expansion. As i said, CZ canceled their planned CAN-YYZ route last week. Apparently forward bookings looked solid. So the reason doesn't seem to be demand, but rather the bilateral agreement between China and Canada. Could be they thought they would get the agreement amended in time for them to launch the route, which wasn't the case.

 

Third, slot issue. China's busiest airports (PEK, PVG, etc) are running at capacity and acquiring decent slots is a problem. This is less of a problem for Air China, CZ and MU, as they are hub carriers and can shift capacity around at their hubs in order to start new routes, but it is a problem for smaller airlines (some of them privately owned) such as Hainan, and foreign airlines, such as AC.

 

AC is on the record saying that it would increase YVR/YYZ-PEK and start YYC-PEK if it had decent slots at PEK. Alas, it doesn't, at least not yet.

 

So just because an airline applied for a route with the CAAC (Chinese Aviation Admin) doesn't mean it will happen. The track record of Chinese carriers and the recent cancelations clearly illustrate this.

 

Montreal - Taipei on Eva Air would be great too!

 

Let's try and stay on planet earth guys. No way Eva will ever grace the Montreal skies.

 

I'm glad that Asia is starting to take off from Montreal .

 

Indeed. However the market has to mature before more airlines start competing. I'm sure Air China's new link to PEK is stimulating the market as we speak. Will it be enough to add PVG-YUL this year or next year? A little too soon I think, but who knows. Weirder things have happened.

Edited by thenoflyzone
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I think we can forget Hong Kong for the foreseeable future. I know it is a great airport with amazing connectivity, but the flight is just too long and thin to make it work... There are absolutely no yields between YUL and HKG, especially if we use the MNL or BKK example. The only way I could see it happening is if Cathay Pacific adds more North American flights from YVR.

 

As for other chinese/asian destinations, let's wait and see how the situation develops with China's airports. A cool thing to see (my personal wish :P) would be ANA from NRT. They are Star Alliance and they operate a nice network in Asia to all the major destinations, but it's only a wish :P

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