James Cherry has invested close to $2 billion in improvements at YUL (Sat Feb 13th)

[Alexcaban]

 

If Porter opts out, I would look at luring an American airline here who would see Montreal as a hub for the whole North-east. Americans traveling from Syracuse to Boston could come through YUL without ever clearing customs here. Legally they would never have to enter Canada. However, we could provide them with some nice shopping options while they are in between flights.

 

Really?!? Thats like saying Paris should try and get Air Canada to open a hub at CDG for flight within Europe.

 

I think priorities should be adding Shanghai, Tokyo and Seattle, and the next big step should be an overhaul of the domestic jetty. Maybe it would be a good time to try to woo Porter to open a hub at YUL? They are considering it, and it would be a great addition to what YUL has to offer.

 

100% agree with you, the domestic jetty need to be demolished and rebuilt into a beautiful building.

[internationalx]

I'm certain that if Montreal's economy were more robust and Quebecers flew more domestically, Westjet would be expanding YUL. I don't think their comfort level with language is a factor; operating in different languages is a basic characteristic of the aviation industry.

 

What are the plans for the domestic jetty?? It's horrendous.

[Anderson]

Je me demande si un autre que Cherry aurait pu faire mieux. Impossible pour moi à dire. Ce qui compte, c'est que le résultat actuel est probant. Avant, je pestais contre l'aéroport (trop exigu, trop déglingué, trop lent). Maintenant, j'aime. Ça me prend 15 min. en général pour me rendre à l'aire d'embarquement. C'est relax (peut-être un peu moins pour la jetée domestique); ce n'est pas un zoo comme plusieurs aéroports américains. Ça s'est amélioré aux douanes et la desserte s'améliore aussi. Il reste qu'à refaire la jetée domestique et à régler les problèmes d'accès.

 

Bravo à l'administration portuaire et à M. Cherry. Continuez comme ça

[mont royal]

Really?!? Thats like saying Paris should try and get Air Canada to open a hub at CDG for flight within Europe.

 

Not really. Montreal is 30 miles from the USA border. We are highly integrated into the economy of New England and the NE corner of the USA. If there are current prohibitive regulations; well, regulations are intended to serve the best interests of the consumer and they are amended constantly to reflect changing times. Free trade is on the march; we live in a global economy; protectionism is out of favour. If an American airline were to conclude that a hub in Montreal would help their bottom line, then why not?

[internationalx]

Even it that were possible regulation-wise, with all the consolidation in the US aviation industry over the last decade, which has also sent the number of hubs shrink, no one is looking to create new hubs. In addition, geography is a factor: with huge hubs close-by in EWR, JFK, DTW, PHL, not to mention YYZ, there is no point. Don't forget, Boston isn't even a hub for any of the big US carriers.

[mont royal]

I will dream on a little further. This will work best if it is restricted to transborder flights only. So, if I dream that I am Mr. Cherry, I find an American domestic airline who is looking to strengthen its position in the North Eastern US and is looking for a hub location. I know that my main competitor is Boston, maybe NYC (but not Toronto) .

 

Let`s pick a hypothetical possibility, Southwest Airlines.

 

I point out that for someone flying from Bangor to Phoenix, it would be easy to walk 100 meters from a Southwest flight arriving at YUL from Bangor to their departing flight to Phoenix. No need to enter Canada, luggage is forwarded on, etc. Basically YUL becomes a domestic American hub for them. Advantages? They are based in a marvelous facility thanks to all my work over the past few years. Local personnel and maintenance costs will be roughly one third cheaper than in Boston. As a bonus they now have direct access to passengers from the largest metropolitan area northeast of NYC; they also have access to a wide range of cross-Canada and international flights as well.

 

Back to the Porter option. Yes, there are rumours that they are for sale, but the company has denied that. ( Obviously, that could be a lie) However, it would surprise me if Porter hadn`t planned a better Plan B than an outright sale. I can`t imagine a worse time for them to sell. Any potential buyer is going to be faced with the same issue as they are. They have hit a wall on Plan A and, unless they are satisfied with no serious future growth, they will also need a Plan B. So, as a potential buyer, even if I did have a creative Plan B at the back of my mind, I would not offer top dollar for Porter.

 

We also know that both Montreal and Ottawa have been mentioned as possible areas of Porter expansion. So, if I was Mr. Cherry, I would kicking those tires pretty seriously ( and I don't think that it is dreaming to assume that he is looking at this very closely) .

[ERJ-Boy]

Montreal will never become a YYZ size hub for any airline. However thanks to aircrafts like the 787 Montreal is a viable destination for long haul point to point traffic. Therefore it is viable for airlines like ANA to fly from Tokyo for example. We should focus on that.

[Timothy]

Cabotage rules would prevent a US carrier from transporting a Canadian ticketed passenger between two points in Canada en faisant escale à YUL, however it should not affect ticketed US citizens with origin and destination in the continental US. That having been said, there are a couple of weighty economic roadblocks.

 

One: As mont_royal points out, the local operating costs would be lower owing to the USD-CAD exchange rate, however this is a moving target; let's assume it would take three years from today to build the proper facilities at YUL. If by then our Dollar has regained some strength then bye bye savings to our US carrier hub at YUL. Now the US carrier has $ tied up in a YUL facility plus suddenly non-competitive operating costs. "YUL is the new Pittsburgh."

 

Two: So based on that scenario, which US carrier is going to bet on a positive outcome for themselves?

Let's pick a hypothetical possibility, Southwest Airlines.

Southwest would have to be just about the worst example you could come up with. YUL is wedged way up in a distant corner of their traffic flows. Average O/D block times would rise significantly and then for every Expedia/Travelocity consumer the carrier could only compete on price. Bangor-Phoenix, ok that works, but what is that market, 12 directional pax per day?

 

Porter has a lovely niche at YTZ and a loyal customer base, however they're pretty well at their market limit for Q400 operations (aircraft range to potential markets + airside space at the YTZ terminal). No jets at Toronto Island = no expansion of the existing business model. A CSeries hub at YUL or YOW completely changes their profile, they completely lose their image and all of a sudden a whole segment of their business traffic for downtown Toronto has to connect en route, and they lose their differentiation from Air Canada or WestJet for the door-to-door time to that meeting at King/York or Bay/Richmond.

[ERJ-Boy]

Porter has a lovely niche at YTZ and a loyal customer base, however they're pretty well at their market limit for Q400 operations (aircraft range to potential markets + airside space at the YTZ terminal). No jets at Toronto Island = no expansion of the existing business model. A CSeries hub at YUL or YOW completely changes their profile, they completely lose their image and all of a sudden a whole segment of their business traffic for downtown Toronto has to connect en route, and they lose their differentiation from Air Canada or WestJet for the door-to-door time to that meeting at King/York or Bay/Richmond.

 

I get your point, and it's a valid one. However if Porter wants to achieve growth they'll need to expand beyond the island. I think the CSeries idea is a little premature. Porter could copy its model in other cities like Ottawa, Montreal, Quebec City and Halifax by flying Q400s to big business centres of the northeast and regional destinations. I think they could envision becoming a major player everywhere in eastern Canada.

[YUL]

...Porter has a lovely niche at YTZ and a loyal customer base... ...A CSeries hub at YUL or YOW completely changes their profile...

 

Let's say that a YUL mini-hub (with or w/o CSeries) makes business sense for Porter, do you think a link-up with Air Transat Transatlantic flights could be a profitable situation for both carriers? (ie Porter feeding in Air Transat?)