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Well, there's a fair value, somewhere (at 94 cents maybe?).

 

$0.88 might be under rated (then I would agree with your comments. )

 

Being over valued is no better either. (a swing of 10 % has a huge impact to Bombardier sales / revenues by example)

 

Nous vivons le syndrome Hollandais assurément, anyways you look at it.

Edited by YUL

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???? il est impossible de compétitionner avec un dollar on par. L'Ontario est dans le même bateau que nous. Toutes les petites compagnies qui touchent de près ou de loin au transport auront plus d'argent dans leur poche. Environ 25% de notre PIB vient de l'exportation internationale.

 

on va sauver beaucoup d'argent avec un dollar et prix du pétrole plus bas.

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???? il est impossible de compétitionner avec un dollar on par. L'Ontario est dans le même bateau que nous. Toutes les petites compagnies qui touchent de près ou de loin au transport auront plus d'argent dans leur poche. Environ 25% de notre PIB vient de l'exportation internationale.

 

on va sauver beaucoup d'argent avec un dollar et prix du pétrole plus bas.

 

Si une compagnie n'arrive pas à compétitioner avec un dollar égal, son produit est tout simplement inférieur aux produits comparables. L'argument du coût du pétrole va dans les deux sens: les produits étrangés sont importés içi et nos produits sont exportés ailleurs. Il faut avoir un meilleur produit, un meilleur prix et être innovant, sinon on devient comme Jacob...

 

Dans mon domaine (software engineering), on compétitionne tous les jours avec la Chine et l'Inde où on peut trouver 4-5 ingénieurs pour le prix d'un seul içi. Pour rester en business il faut être innovant.

 

Un interne chez Google ce fait payer 100 000$ par année et ils écrasent la compétition! Pourquoi on peut pas faire pareil içi?

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Si une compagnie n'arrive pas à compétitioner avec un dollar égal, son produit est tout simplement inférieur aux produits comparables. L'argument du coût du pétrole va dans les deux sens: les produits étrangés sont importés içi et nos produits sont exportés ailleurs. Il faut avoir un meilleur produit, un meilleur prix et être innovant, sinon on devient comme Jacob...

 

Dans mon domaine (software engineering), on compétitionne tous les jours avec la Chine et l'Inde où on peut trouver 4-5 ingénieurs pour le prix d'un seul içi. Pour rester en business il faut être innovant.

 

Un interne chez Google ce fait payer 100 000$ par année et ils écrasent la compétition! Pourquoi on peut pas faire pareil içi?

 

là tu parles de domaines multimédias-technologiques, l'économie du Qc n'a jamais été basée sur ça.

 

http://www.stat.gouv.qc.ca/statistiques/economie/commerce-exterieur/exp1008.htm

 

le $ Can n'est pas supposé être 1/1, l'économie principale du Canada, Ontario+Québec a besoin d'un $ plus faible.

 

on exporte 70% aux US.

 

Depuis l’entrée en vigueur de l’ALÉ, les exportations internationales du Québec ont progressé, passant de 20 % du produit intérieur brut en 1988 à 29 % en 2009.

 

Bien que la majorité des exportations québécoises soient destinées aux États-Unis (70 %), les marchés européen et asiatique transigent aussi avec le Québec. En 2009, ils s’appropriaient respectivement 15,6 % et 6,4 % des exportations de la province. Les États-Unis représentent la principale source des importations du Québec. Ils sont suivis de loin par des pays tels la Chine, le Royaume-Uni, l’Algérie et l’Allemagne

En 2010, la répartition des cinq principaux produits d’exportation du Québec était la suivante :

 

Aluminium et alliages (10,4 %)

Avions entiers avec moteurs (8,6 %)

Papier journal (3,7 %)

Cuivre et alliage (3,3 %)

Dérivés du pétrole et du charbon (3,0 %)

Les infrastructures d'exportation (transports) québécoises sont très efficaces, qu'il s'agisse de transports maritime, ferroviaire, routier ou aérien. Ces infrastructures ont contribué à augmenter les exportations nationales et internationales.

http://www.gouv.qc.ca/portail/quebec/pgs/commun/portrait/economie/exportations/?lang=fr

Edited by vivreenrégion

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Parity with the USD, in itself, does not say a thing about whether a currency is weak or strong. If the EUR was said to be heading toward 1.00 USD, we would all say it is a weak currency. Ditto for the GBP. Similarly, if the Yuan was heading there, it would represent an impossibly explosive 16-fold increase!

 

A far more valid metrics, albeit still imperfect, is purchasing power parity. Under this, the CAD had been clearly overvalued in recent years. But then you have to realize that exchange rates are determined by other factors, taking into account both the current market conditions and future prospects; determinants include the Current Account Balance, the Capital Balance and the Interest Rate policy conducted by the Central Banks of the respective players; in turn, future prospects are influenced by other factors, domestic as well as global. For example, a projected slowdown of the Chinese economy will tend to depress the price of raw materials eg. iron ore, which in turn will have an adverse effect on the currencies of countries which rely heavily on exports of such materials. And on and on...

 

We have come to understand that while a weaker currency = lower exchange rate is beneficial to exporters, it will also have adverse effects (eg. higher import costs). However, a weakening of a currency which is purely the result of market forces is globally a welcomed development ie. an automatic adjustment of domestic cost structures (measured internationally), when, as it is often the case, internal rigidities (eg. wages) prevent quick adjustments. It is indeed a problem within the Eurozone, where some countries can no longer rely on monetary devaluation to adjust. A similar situation can be said to exist in Canada (notably), where the optimal exchange rate can and often does differ between regions/provinces. Here, we used to say that the Canadian monetary policy was set to address conditions in Ontario, to the detriment of say, Quebec. But that was 40 years ago. Until recently, it had rather been the growth in oil and minerals that pushed the CAD to a level that made many Canadian exporters uncompetitive; fortunately, that trend has now reverted. (Lower CAD) However, it does not mean that we will be back to "normality"; some of the manufacturing plants that closed will remain so (for ever). On the other hand, new activities will flourish, based on the competitive advantages of today and tomorrow, not the past. That's it for now, guys!

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IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast for 4th Time in Five Months

 

Global oil demand next year will be weaker than previously estimated and supply from non-OPEC producers will be bigger, the International Energy Agency said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-12/iea-cuts-global-oil-demand-forecast-for-4th-time-in-five-months.html

 

 

les prix vont rester bas pendant quelques années si on est chanceux. sous les 60$ pas impossible au long terme.

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