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Quebec exports to jump 9% in 2015: EDC economist

 

FRANÇOIS SHALOM, MONTREAL GAZETTE

More from François Shalom, Montreal Gazette

Published on: November 27, 2014Last Updated: November 27, 2014 8:00 AM EST

The U.S. housing market will spur export growth in Quebec, says Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada

The U.S. housing market will spur export growth in Quebec, says Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada

 

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Smile wide, Quebec exporters. Peter Hall, chief economist of Export Development Canada, says that two key ingredients will brighten your lives for the next year or three: the U.S. economy and the weak Canadian dollar.

“These two things are coming together to make this year and next very positive for Quebec exports,” Hall said in an interview.

 

“The reason it’s a particularly good story is that Quebec does not have a very strong internal economy. Consumption is going to be weak because of high indebtedness levels.”

 

The good part of the EDC forecast, made public Thursday, is that just as household debt is cutting into the consumption economy, the trade sector is taking over and is set to boom, compensating — and then some — for the spending shortfall.

 

“So we’ve got to be the luckiest people on Earth,” Hall said.

 

Traditional resource sectors like mining and forestry as well as aerospace will be key drivers of the export resurgence. And that resurgence will in turn be driven principally by the U.S. housing market, which has mounted a remarkable comeback from the ominous recession of 2008.

 

“The rate of (U.S.) housing construction has doubled where it was during the crisis,” said Hall. “And the best is yet to come. They’re building now at the rate of 1 million (housing) units a year. But the economy itself is generating (demand for) 1.4 million new households every year. They’re 400,000 units a year behind where they need to be just to keep pace with basic demand.”

 

“So the very minimum you can expect over the next two or three years of growth inside this market is 40 per cent.”

 

“That’s very good news for Quebec lumber firms and for everything else that goes into houses being built — copper piping, wiring, 2-by-4s, asphalt, OSB (particle board used for flooring, roofing and walls) — you name it.”

 

“And it doesn’t stop there. Once the house is completed, there’s all the stuff that goes into it; washers, dryers, stoves, fridges, floorings, furnishings.”

 

Again, he noted, a major opportunity for metal producers, notably Quebec aluminum smelters.

 

It all adds up to a projected eight-per-cent jump for Quebec exports this year and another nine per cent in 2015, he said.

 

Aerospace exports will surge 10 per cent next year, thanks to the weak Canadian dollar and good demand internationally.

 

“Quebec’s Bombardier is the major beneficiary of these positive international trends, and with their CSeries line expected to enter into service in late 2015, it will be a huge boon for Quebec’s aerospace industry for years to come,” said Hall.

 

He praised Quebec’s comprehensive overhaul of government spending under Premier Philippe Couillard as vital to the future of the province’s economy.

 

“It’s essential to ensuring competitiveness for the future. If you don’t have fiscal sustainability, it means a higher future tax liability and an uncertain policy environment.

 

“We’ve long learned that this is very, very positive for the future economy.

 

 

:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:

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La richesse se créé avec les exportations, que ce soit nos ressources, produits ou savoir faire!:thumbsup:

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Wait and see guys. Thanks to the free trade agreement with Europe, Montreal trade will boom like never before!!! We ain't seen nothin yet.

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Les exportations sont effectivement un des plus grands facteurs d'enrichissement pour une nation. C'est pour cela qu'il est important d'insister pour exporter le maximum de produits finis, parce qu'ils offrent une plus grande valeur ajoutée et ainsi rapportent davantage en revenus, tout en créant de nombreux emplois. C'est ici que la recherche et développement entre en ligne de compte, car elle fournit le savoir-faire nécessaire afin de créer des produits innovateurs et à prix compétitifs, qui finissent par se tailler une place de choix sur les différents marchés.

 

Nous avons un avantage très important à notre faveur, une électricité abondante et peu coûteuse, qui au lieu de l'exporter en vrac, nous servirait mieux si elle attirait plus d'industries grandes consommatrices d'énergie. Un kilowatt-heure exporté profite moins au Québec que la même quantité utilisée dans la fabrication de biens. Pareils pour les denrées, métaux et bois notamment. Le développement de la filière des transports électriques a aussi un potentiel immense qu'il faut absolument encourager, non seulement pour nos propres services, mais aussi bien sûr pour l'exportation.

 

En plus d'une situation géographique avantageuse, nous avons tout ce qu'il faut en ressources diverses, pour nous assurer d'une belle prospérité. Ne manque qu'un peu plus d'audace et de créativité pour bien mélanger les bons ingrédients. On pourra alors adopter une formule plus efficace qui créera de bonnes chaines de production: de la forêt et du sous-sol, en passant par le laboratoire et l'usine, pour aboutir sur les étals et les tablettes en véritables produits made in Québec.

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La baisse du dollar canadien (causée par la baisse du prix du pétrole), voilà l'une de causes les plus directes. Le phénomène de la maladie hollandaise se confirme. Quand l'Alberta profite du pétrole, nous on pâtit pour nos exportations.

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I, for one, does not find success in improving exportation from a weak dollar... It shows we can't compete on an equal dollar.

 

I would much rather be exporting a lot on a strong dollar based on efficiency and superiority in our products.

 

We already have among the cheapest wages in Canada, along with cheap electricity and cheap real estate, yet we are struggling and we need a 0.88 CAD to USD to remain competitive?

 

It's a start, but we should aspire to more and I'm sure we can do better!

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I, for one, does not find success in improving exportation from a weak dollar... It shows we can't compete on an equal dollar.

 

I would much rather be exporting a lot on a strong dollar based on efficiency and superiority in our products.

 

We already have among the cheapest wages in Canada, along with cheap electricity and cheap real estate, yet we are struggling and we need a 0.88 CAD to USD to remain competitive?

 

It's a start, but we should aspire to more and I'm sure we can do better!

 

Well said, I completely agree! I find that its a lazy excuse to say that our exports are bad because the CAN$ is at par with the US$.

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