Sign in to follow this  
YMQ

Doubts about Montreal condo market: Royale Lepage

Recommended Posts

I hope Avenue, Tour des Canadiens and Icone go up. And then the rest can wait ;)

 

 

Softening market raises doubts over condo projects

 

 

By Allison Lampert, THE GAZETTE January 9, 2013 8:11 PM

 

0

 

 

Story

Photos ( 1 )

 

 

Softening market raises doubts over condo projects

 

A number of properties are up for sale in Brossard, on Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2013.

Photograph by: Dave Sidaway , The Gazette

 

MONTREAL - There are condo projects like the Tour des Canadiens which will undoubtedly be built, with the only lingering question surrounding their final height.

 

But a decline in new home construction in Greater Montreal last year is increasingly raising doubts over the viability of the record number of condo buildings announced for the region: this summer, the city’s Ville Marie borough identified projects with 3,000 units destined for downtown alone.

 

“You talk to the different developers and they are all confident that their project will go forward,” said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank. “But I don’t think that all the projects will come to fruition. I would be extremely surprised to see presales advancing for every project so some of them will have to drop off.”

 

In 2012, a more balanced resale market led new home construction to decline nine per cent in the Greater Montreal Area and analysts are expecting a further 12-per-cent drop in housing starts for the region in 2013, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Wednesday. In December, the decline in housing starts, compared with the same month in 2011, was fuelled by a 65-per-cent drop in new home construction on Montreal Island.

 

So even as the sold-out Tour des Canadiens near the Bell Centre is looking to add floors, the steep drop in new Montreal Island housing starts reflects the growing array of choices for buyers in the resale market.

 

While Greater Montreal Real Estate Board data are not yet available for December, November resales tanked 19 per cent. Meanwhile, figures reported Tuesday by Royal LePage Real Estate Services showed condo inventory has shot up 30 per cent at the end of 2012, compared with a year earlier.

 

Housing starts

 

The numbers suggest Montreal’s current low interest rate-fuelled real estate boom peaked in 2011, even though demand still far exceeds historic norms.

 

Compared with record-breaking 2011, new condo construction dropped six per cent to 11,880 units in 2012 — still the second highest year in Greater Montreal for condo building.

 

To put that number in context, Greater Montreal developers were only building around 2,000 to 3,000 units a year before the last condo boom of the early 2000s that peaked with 10,000 units in 2004, explained CMHC analyst David L’Heureux.

 

For the province of Quebec, new home construction dropped three per cent last year to 40,526 units above 2011, CMHC data show. Quebec and Nova Scotia were the only two provinces in Canada to report a decline in total housing starts for 2012.

 

Nationally, housing starts declined for the fourth consecutive month in December, but remained well above sustainable levels, leading to further fears the economically important sector could be headed for a hard landing. The pace of housing starts slowed by a modest 1.7 per cent last month to 197,976 on an annual basis, the fourth drop in as many months.

 

In a note, BMO economist Robert Kavcic said “2012 was a strong year for homebuilding in Canada, but it was distinctly a tale of two halves — we judge that 2013 will look more like the second half (cooling) than the first.”

 

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Softening+market+raises+doubts+over+condo+projects/7797746/story.html#ixzz2HXfyW4rB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a load of BS. Greater Montreal is NOT downtown!

I couldn't care less that Brossard has a tough time reselling.

All I see is greater Montreal this and that. Who cares? Show me Ville-Marie numbers. This article is BS.

I'm convinced that this city's core will boom and be unrecognizable to all of us by 2016. Nothing in this article says the contrary to that.

 

BTW, If Carlos Leitao was really good at what he does, he wouldn't be working at the Laurentian Bank.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The boom is at the end. I opened a thread about it a few months ago and I got flamed.

 

 

This smells like 2007-2008, an avalanche of project announcements just before the collapse.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is absolutely no doubt that Tour des Canadiens will go up : it is sold out !

 

Le pire qui pourrait arriver, c'est que les acheteurs se désistent en bloc, mais ils perderaient tous leur dépôts de + de 5 000,00$ ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as long as Icone, Tour Des Canadiens and L'Avenue go up.. i'm happy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The boom is at the end. I opened a thread about it a few months ago and I got flamed.

 

 

This smells like 2007-2008, an avalanche of project announcements just before the collapse.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Nous savions tous que le boom allait se terminer un jour où l'autre. N'empêche, si on regarde le boom de 2002 (Le Demetrieus - 15 étages) et le boom de 2005-2007 (Roc Fleury, Tours Lépines, Le Concorde - 20 à 25 étages) et finalement le boom 2011-2013 (Tom, L'Avenue, Altitude, Tours des Canadiens, Mariott - 40 étages et plus) le prochain boom nous donnera des tours de 60 étages !!!!!

 

C'est n'importe quoi comme analyse, je le sais :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Le marché est toujours plus stable que ceux de Toronto ou Vancouver. Moins de peaks démentiels, mais aussi moins de chutes dramatiques. Le pire qui pourrait arriver à mon avis, c'est que certains projets lèvent plus tard que prévu, mais je n'ai pas de doutes que les tours annoncées vont à peu près toutes être construites à moyen terme.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What a load of BS. Greater Montreal is NOT downtown!

I couldn't care less that Brossard has a tough time reselling.

All I see is greater Montreal this and that. Who cares? Show me Ville-Marie numbers.

 

 

Pertinent. De plus, on voit un mouvement de certains balieusards, surtout des baby-boomers, qui reviennent en ville. Ils préfèrent les condos. Moins d'ouvrage, moins de terrain à entretenir, plus près des services, les enfants partis de la maison, etc.... C'est donc un peu normal que ça commence à paraître à Brossard, mais j'aimerais moi aussi des chiffres bien plus précis sur le centre-ville.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Comprennez moi bien, je veux que tous ces tours surtout ceux proches du centre bell, lèvent!

 

Ça sera un nouveau quartier dans quelques années!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Similar Content

    • By mtlurb
      Prolongement de la ligne bleue vers l'est

      Prolongement de la ligne bleue vers l'est. La mise en chantier est prévue en 2022, pour une livraison en 2026. Connexion avec le SRB Pie-IX, stationnement de 1200 places aux Galeries d'Anjou. Coût évalué à 3.9 milliards de dollars.
      Le projet en chiffres 
      5 nouvelles stations de métro accessibles, pour une longueur de tunnel de 5,8 km 2 terminus d’autobus et 1 stationnement incitatif de 1 200 places 1 tunnel piétonnier souterrain assurant le lien avec le futur SRB Pie-IX Plusieurs infrastructures opérationnelles : 6 structures auxiliaires renfermant des équipements nécessaires à l’exploitation, 1 poste de district, 1 garage de métro, 1 centre d’attachement hébergeant des véhicules d’entretien des voies et 1 centre de service pour l’entretien des infrastructures Budget estimé de 3,9 G$ Échéancier préliminaire
      Début 2019 : début de la conception des plans et devis.  Printemps 2019 : approbation du mode de réalisation, du plan budgétaire et de l’envergure du projet. Fin 2019 : début de travaux préparatoires sur certains sites. Début 2020 : démarrage des processus de changement de zonage et de consultations publiques.   2021 : dépôt du dossier d’affaires, lancement de la construction des nouvelles infrastructures. 2026 : inauguration du nouveau tronçon. Information : http://www.stm.info/fr/a-propos/grands-projets/grands-projets-metro/prolongement-ligne-bleue
      Consultations publiques : http://www.stm.info/fr/consultations/prolongement-de-la-ligne-bleue
        
       
    • By SkahHigh
      Fil de discussion sur les travaux du tunnel Mont-Royal dans le cadre du REM.

    • By GDS
      Voisin au YOO
       
      http://www.mauricemartel.com/union/
       


    • By Fortier
      Projet résidentiel ancien site du Mackay