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Construction : ralentissement prévu à Montréal et Toronto


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On a quand même plusieurs chantiers en cours ceux la ne devraient pas avoir de problème mais est-ce que ça va avoir un effet négatif sur ceux qui sont proposés ! Ex : La tour des canadiens etc.

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Montreal's record-breaking condo-building frenzy is expected to cool in 2012, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Tuesday.


"What we've seen in the past months is not sustainable," said Kevin Hughes, CMHC's analyst for Quebec.


New Montreal-area condo construction - originally expected to soften this year after an unprecedented 10,457 starts in 2010 - is once again shattering records with 11,300 units forecast in 2011. But despite initially underestimating the level of condo building in 2011, CMHC analysts say there will have to be a slowdown in new construction next year, or risk a rise in the number of homes sitting empty.


"Developers are very aware of the level of demand," said Bertrand Recher, a senior CMHC analyst for Montreal.


"If we continue on the same pace it's sure we will have more and more units available."


While the vast majority of recently completed condos in cities like Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto are being absorbed, or occupied, some industry experts are raising concern about future units coming to market.


With the rate for a fiveyear mortgage at a 60-year low, a rise in interest rates is expected by 2013, when condos being started right now will hit the market. Already there is some concern of an oversupply in the condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver, said Peter Norman, chief economist for Altus Group, which put out its own housing forecast Tuesday.


"I think that they're doing fine right now. But the issue is how well they'll be absorbed in 2013," he said. "I would be worried about price stability in that segment."


In the Montreal-area, with all market segments heading toward balanced conditions in 2012, some North Shore municipalities such as Terrebonne and Mascouche are actually forecast to become buyer's markets in the $150,000 to $199,000 price range - new construction in all categories is expected to drop by 9.3 per cent next year to 19,400 units, the CMHC said.


The average price of an existing Montreal-area home will rise 5.2 per cent to $313,000 in 2011 and 2.9 per cent in 2012 to $322,000, the CMHC said.


Across Quebec, sales of existing homes are expected to pick up next year, even as new multi-family construction is forecast to drop by 13 per cent. After a year of declines, single-family construction is expected to rebound next year, growing three per cent.


Nationally, housing starts are moderate, with the exception of Alberta where rising employment has fuelled new demand for homes, the Altus report said.


Nationally, both the CMHC and the Altus Group are expecting price increases to rise with the rate of inflation next year in most provinces. Across Canada, the average price of a resale home is expected between $315,800 and $418,700 in 2012, depending on economic growth, with a point forecast of $368,200, the CMHC said.


Sales are to grow modestly between 406,100 and 509,000 units, with a point forecast of 458,500.


CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan said these national numbers were negatively affected by weak consumer confidence triggered, in part, by external events plaguing global financial markets.


But he dismissed last month's unexpected rise in national unemployment from 7.1 per cent to 7.3 per cent - which especially hit manufacturing provinces like Quebec and Ontario - as "temporary."


"The trend will be of employment continuing to rise," he said.


In a rare public appearance at a housing outlook, CMHC president and CEO Karen Kinsley went on the offensive against the "commentators and think tanks" who have levied criticism against the national housing agency.


"They have challenged the CMHC's role in the mortgage loan insurance business, arguing that it puts taxpayers at unnecessary risk," Kinsley said.


"I want to assure you that CMHC's insurance business is strong, well capitalized and supports a stable and sound housing finance system for Canada."



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