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Found 7 results

  1. By Sarah Mulholland April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Loan extensions will likely be insufficient to prevent a wave of commercial real-estate defaults as borrowers struggle to refinance debt amid tighter lending standards and plummeting property values, according to Deutsche Bank AG analysts. As much as $1 trillion in commercial mortgages maturing during the next decade will be unable to secure financing without significant cash injections from property owners, according to the Deutsche analysts. At least two-thirds, or $410 billion, of commercial mortgages bundled and sold as bonds coming due between 2009 and 2018 will need additional cash infusions to refinance, the analysts led by Richard Parkus in New York said in a report yesterday. Many commercial real-estate borrowers will be unwilling or unable to put additional equity into the properties, and will have to negotiate to extend the loan or walk away from the property, the analysts said. The volume of potentially troubled loans and declining real-estate values will make loan extensions harder to obtain. “The scale of this issue is virtually unprecedented in commercial real estate, and its impact is likely to dominate the industry for the better part of a decade,” the analysts said. Many dismiss the seriousness of the problem by assuming lenders will agree to extend maturities, according to the report. That approach might work if the amount of loans that failed to refinance was relatively small, but the percentage is likely to be 60 to 70 percent, the analysts said. The overhang of distressed real estate will hinder price appreciation, making lenders less likely to extend mortgages with the expectation that the value of the property will rise enough to qualify for refinancing, the analysts said. Loans made in 2007 when prices peaked and underwriting standards bottomed will face the biggest hurdles to refinancing. Roughly 80 percent of commercial mortgages packaged into bonds in 2007 wouldn’t qualify for refinancing, according to Deutsche data.
  2. (Courtesy of Monocle) She is actually 1st of 5 people Monocle profiled for "city voices" for their July/August issue.
  3. By Brian Ker, Special to The Gazette The Gazette's panel of experts answer your questions on real estate. To ask a question, please email [email protected] There has been a lot of discussion recently regarding the bonanza of construction taking place in Montreal and certainly on these pages an inquisitive analysis of the quantity of condominium construction. We also hear about “the hot land market” and there are lots of questions as to its sustainability. I recently attended the Land and Development Conference in Toronto to determine the optimism in North America’s largest condominium market and compare that with what we have been witnessing here in Montreal as land values have rapidly increased over the past five years. In a hot market, land is not an asset but is priced more like a commodity: a raw material that is just one part of a final constructed product, including concrete, steel and labour. In a weak market, land values are more likely tied to its short-term income-producing potential, such as parking revenues less off-setting taxes. The rapidly diminishing land supply and a cultural shift toward urban living have lead to changes in the commercial land market. First, commercial land sales are principally divided between high- and low-density sites. High-density sites intended for office, hotel, mixed-use and multi-unit residential projects, while low-density sites incorporate retail, industrial and single-family home developments. The value of land is based on the total amount of density permitted on its property – a site permitting an office tower is considerably greater than a walkup row-house or an industrial facility – and the total volume of potential sales in a given year, which allow for larger projects. Restrictive zoning can adversely affect the site’s value, as can social-housing inclusions and lengthy, complicated and sometimes “out-of-control” zoning application processes that jeopardize a project’s economic vitality. On Montreal Island, the prevailing trend is that high-density sites are taking a larger market share of total land transaction sales volumes because of the increasing prominence of sales of larger development sites permitting significantly greater density, and higher pricing for each unit of density, also referred to as the price per square foot Buildable. Over the past five years, the value for each unit of density has doubled to an average price of approximately $30 per square foot buildable. This is primarily based upon the rapid increase (up to 50%) in values for condominiums during the same time period, and as such, sales of sites for residential projects have outpaced all other sectors. Developers will be happy to note that Montreal was the third-largest condominium market in North America in 2010, albeit in an aberration year for the U.S. housing market, and only trailing Toronto and Houston in overall condo starts. This buoyancy has been growing for some time as major developers have acquired land holdings to fuel future projects. Since October of 2008, there have been a 11 high-density development land transactions in the greater Montreal area that have traded above $5 million, with a total value of $148 million in high-density land sales. Major sales included the land for the Project Griffintown project, Angus Development in the Quartier des Spectacles, the Marianopolis site, the site for the Altoria project and most recently Prevel and Conceptions Rachel-Juilien acquiring the rights from Canada Lands to develop Les Bassins du Nouveau Havre for $20 million. These major land transactions were purchased by well-known, well-respected and well-capitalized condo developers, with the exception of the Angus Assembly and Altoria, both of which will feature a mix of office and condominium use. Mixed-use projects are becoming the new normal, as developers put forth projects that feature greater overall site density to decrease the effects of higher land prices or kick start existing larger projects with an exclusively residential component. For land values to continue their ascent, Montreal developers and buyers need to develop an attitude shift with regard to larger projects. The traditional condo developer logic is that it is nearly impossible to sell more than 150 units for a project in one sales year. The rationale for this is, typically, that Montrealers will not pay a deposit for a condo unit until substantial pre-sales have been achieved or it is under construction, as they are not willing to wait two to three years for delivery. Recent project launches, though, are challenging this traditional thinking, with buyers (or their agents) waiting in line overnight and first-day sell-outs occurring with regularity, or buyers are asked to place a “deposit” to reserve a unit without seeing final plans. Buyers can no longer sit back and cherry-pick the best unit, as it will probably be reserved before they arrive on the scene. In addition, unless condominiums continue to experience strong price increases, Montreal condo developers will be facing increasing pressure for prime sites from alternative uses, such as office towers, hotels, or institutional (Healthcare, Educational, Student Residence) projects, where demand is steadily growing. Finally, our municipal government needs to develop a more flexible zoning application process with regard to major urban projects and the need for public consultations. Politicians should rely on the counsel of independent experts, but are elected to make decisions, and voters should judge them on these decisions, good or bad, at the ballot-box. Montreal home and condo owners have benefited from the rapidly rising values of their residential real estate over the past five years. Although rising interest rates are on the horizon and will clearly dampen demand for condos for home ownership and as an investment vehicle, demand is increasing for alternate site uses. Land values have also seen a rapid ascent, particularly for high density sites, and the economic fundamentals support continued growth and greater liquidity in this particular market. Brian Ker is associate vice-president, National Investment Team, at CB Richard Ellis Limited. He can be reached at 514 905-2141 or by email at [email protected] Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/sustainable+Montreal+construction+bonanza/4889700/story.html#ixzz1OFFSPeAz
  4. This does seem to have some validity in older cities like Boston, New York, Philadelphia, or Chicago, but in newer cities it is not the case. Instead of donuts, one finds "wedges" of wealth occupying a continuous pie-slice from the center to the periphery. Just from visual inspection, it also seems that poverty donuts all tend to have about a five-mile radius, regardless of the size of the city. Perhaps this is the practical limit for commuting without a car? All maps are at the same scale, and all use the same color values for income.
  5. Je crois que cette discussion est approprié avec L'application possible de cette "charte des maleurs" et Barbara Kay dit tout haut ce que plusieurs Montrealais pense tout bas: Je suis a priori Montrealais dans une province qui n'est pas la mienne....pourquoi pas crée notre propre "cité-province"? http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/18/barbara-kay-the-case-for-the-city-state-of-montreal/ Barbara Kay: The case for the City-State of Montreal A few months ago, I appeared on a French language talk show as part of a diverse panel of politicians, aesthetes and chattering-class types to give our two-cents’ worth on Quebec political issues (Bill 14 was the hot topic then). Even though everyone else was a sovereigntist, I was warmly received; francophone media people truly appreciate anglo participation in such discussions. Dialogue proceeded in amiable fashion until I was asked if I considered myself a québécoise. “Non“, I unequivocally responded, “I consider myself a “montréalaise,” adding that Montreal was a distinct society within Quebec just as Quebec is a distinct society within Canada. Silence. The temperature of the room seemed instantly to go down 30 degrees. Every face around the table turned to stone. Stating the truth about Montreal to Quebec nationalists — that its character, needs and interests have little in common with those of the rest of Quebec (ROQ) and that, by implication, Montreal deserves special status — is simply a taboo. Related Kelly McParland: Quebec charter reflects values of small-minded separatists Barbara Kay: Accommodation of a different order Full Pundit: The Charter of Quebec Values — ‘Kafka, meet Monty Python’ Taboo no longer. Today there will be a press conference at a downtown Montreal hotel. There strategic consultant Michel David will make his long-researched case for Montreal as a city-state, a place in which counter-productive “values” charters and language laws would not apply, and where conditions favouring entrepreneurship, economic investment and skills recruitment would. David has been brooding over Montreal’s decline for decades. According to David’s just-released report, Montreal: City-State, Re-Inventing Our Governance, Montreal is the poorest city in North America with two million or more population (22nd of 22). It ranks 59th out of 60 jurisdictions for liberty, with the highest taxes and lowest level of entrepreneurship in Canada (50% of the Canadian average). Governance is authoritarian and disrespects individual rights. If Montreal is to regain its former glory, it will not happen under any of Quebec’s parties, all of them in numeric thrall to regional, ethnically homogeneous voters with no direct stake in Montreal’s fortunes. David concludes that only the political and economic autonomy conferred by special administrative status (SAS) — for which there is a precedent: the Cree of northern Quebec have self-governed their territories in collaboration with Quebec City for decades — can restore and surpass this once great city’s former entrepreneurial glory. A recently completed IPSOS survey surveyed 1,250 respondents on the island of Montreal (50%), the greater Montreal area (25%) and ROQ (25%) on Montreal’s current position and prospects and what should be done to improve the future of the city. It found that the idea of Montreal as a city state has wide appeal in the Montreal area. And even somewhat wide appeal in ROQ. Language laws were recognized as an impediment to Montreal’s prosperity, and 75% of Montrealers think ‘guaranteeing full bilingual status’ would help Across the board, close to 80% of respondents agreed that “Montreal has lost its prestige over the last few decades.” Only 54% across the board “would recommend Montreal as a place to start a business.” Only 46% of the ROQ felt that Montreal “should have more autonomy to make its own decisions for its future,” but 81% of Montrealers agreed they should. Yet 88% of ROQ and 92% of Montrealers agreed that “Montreal needs to be bold if it wants to move forward and prosper.” What to do? Language laws were recognized as an impediment to Montreal’s prosperity, and 75% of Montrealers think “guaranteeing full bilingual status” would help. “Streamlining and improving Montreal’s city governance” found favour with 97% of all the respondents, and almost as many think “recognizing entrepreneurs who are creating jobs in the city” is important. Premier Marois, take note: A full 94% of Montrealers and encouraging 80% of ROQ believe in “promoting Montreal’s multicultural aspects.” It’s not remarkable that “making a clear and long term commitment to the Canadian Federation” drew agreement from 80% of Montrealers, but that 66% of ROQ felt the same way will probably come as an unpleasant surprise to the PQ government. The key points of overwhelming agreement to take away from Montreal residents’ numbers are: Montreal is a distinct society within Quebec (90%); to stop its decline, Montreal needs to take drastic steps to improve the way it does things (91%); and Montreal deserves special status within Quebec because it is a world-class, cosmopolitan city (74%). The PQ government’s attempt to pass anglophobic Bill 14 offered proof yet again, if it were needed, that language supremacy is more important to sovereigntists than Montreal’s health and prosperity. The proposed Quebec Values Charter makes it crystal clear that Montreal’s strengths of multiculturalism and openness to the world are actually hateful to them. They would rather see Montreal on its knees, reduced to a plodding, unilingual provincial backwater, than take pride in what could be one of the world’s greatest cities. Montreal as a city-state is an idea whose time has come. All Canadians should support it. What is good for Montreal’s prosperity and growth is good for Quebec, for Canada and the world. National Post [email protected]
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