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Found 10 results

  1. Prosperity gap to widen, Conference Board says Growth in Quebec expected to hit 1.4% DAVID AKIN, Canwest News Service Published: 8 hours ago Booming Saskatchewan will lead all provinces in economic growth this year, while Ontario and Quebec will suffer through a difficult year, said forecasters at the Conference Board of Canada. The widening prosperity gap between the West and those in central and eastern Canada presents federal policy-makers with some unique challenges. The West may need policies that slow growth and curb inflation, while central Canada has few inflationary worries but needs some economic stimulus to encourage growth. In its semi-annual provincial outlook, the Conference Board says Saskatchewan's economy is booming thanks to surging commodity prices, particularly oil and potash, and as a result, the provincial economy there will grow by 4.2 per cent this year. In fact, the Conference Board said workers are leaving Alberta and heading to Saskatchewan to make their fortune. The report says that, as a result, retailers in Canada's flattest province may be in for a particularly good year. "The positive labour outlook, combined with lofty wage gains, is spurring a spending spree. Retail sales are expected to soar by 12.2 per cent in 2008," it said. Meanwhile, in Quebec, things will be a bit better this year, where growth of 1.4 per cent is expected. "Since the middle of 2007, the Quebec economy has been at a near standstill. The weakness in the manufacturing sector has eroded economic gains made in other industries,' the report said. Next door in Ontario, where manufacturers had particular trouble coping with the one-two punch of a fast-rising loonie and skyrocketing energy prices, economic growth will be just 0.8 per cent, the Conference Board said. Only Newfoundland and Labrador will see slower economic growth than Ontario this year. After a stellar year in 2007 with double-digit economic growth, the Conference Board said the pace in Canada's most eastern province is stalled. It predicts growth there of just 0.2 per cent this year. Overall, the Conference Board believes Canada's economy will grow by 1.7 per cent. The forecasters at the independent think-tank are much more optimistic than the Bank of Canada, which said last month it believes Canada's economy will grow by one per cent.
  2. http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/healthy-economic-outlook-for-montreal-and-quebec-city-in-2016-570899271.html OTTAWA, March 3, 2016 /CNW/ - Quebec's two largest cities are forecast to enjoy healthy economic growth in 2016. Montréal and Québec City can expect growth of 2.3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2016. "The depreciation of the Canadian dollar and a healthy U.S. economy is bringing good news to Québec City and Montréal and their export-oriented industries. Economic growth in both cities has been on the upswing. In fact, we expect real GDP growth in both Montréal and Québec City to outpace the national average for the second consecutive year in 2016, after trailing it for five straight years" said Alan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, The Conference Board of Canada. Highlights Montréal is expected to see real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent in 2016, up from 1.7 per cent last year. Québec City's real GDP growth is expected to reach 2 per cent in 2016. Vancouver's real GDP is forecast to grow 3.3 per cent, making it the fastest growing economy among the 28 census metropolitan areas covered in this edition of the Metropolitan Outlook. Montréal Montréal's economic improvement will be driven by a strengthening manufacturing sector, a rebound in construction, and steady services sector gains. Manufacturing output is forecast to expand by 3 per cent in 2016, bolstered by the combination of a weaker Canadian dollar and healthy U.S. demand. Two massive infrastructure projects—the $4.2-billion Champlain Bridge and the $3.7-billion Turcot Interchange—will help the local construction industry shake off three straight years of declines. However, a decline in housing starts will limit overall construction output growth to 2 per cent in 2016. Growth among the services-producing industries is projected to be 2.2 per cent in 2016, the same rate as in 2015. All eight industry sectors will advance this year, with the biggest gains coming from the business services sector and the personal services sector. In all, Montréal is expected to post real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent this year, up from 1.7 per cent in 2015. About 26,000 jobs are expected to be created in 2016. A similar rise in the labour force will keep the unemployment rate at 8.2 per cent, well above the national average of 7 per cent.
  3. We shouldn't expect to see many more condo towers going up in the short term... "Regarding condominiums, the inventory of unsold units will remain at a relatively high level. The need for new units will remain limited in 2016 and 2017" http://m.marketwired.com/press-release/housing-market-outlook-for-2016-and-2017-montreal-cma-2066846.htm Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  4. 2012 Global Cities Index and Emerging Cities Outlook New York, London, Paris, and Tokyo remain today's leading cities, but an analysis of key trends in emerging cities suggests that Beijing and Shanghai may rival them in 10 to 20 years. http://www.atkearney.com/index.php/Publications/2012-global-cities-index-and-emerging-cities-outlook.html
  5. http://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-working-group-formed-to-improve-citys-business-outlook Montreal has considerable assets when we think of our quality of life, of our spot as the second largest pool of higher-education students in North America and certainly when we think of how safe it is…” Hubert said. There should be a working group that looks at how to retain students. It's all about retention. Students come here from abroad, live for cheap, party hard and then leave. Aside from high taxes, this should be highest priority.
  6. Ottawa's '09 deficit may hit $14B Nov 20, 2008 11:16 AM Les Whittington OTTAWA BUREAU OTTAWA–An independent parliamentary review of the Harper government's finances concludes the federal Conservatives are likely to run budget deficits "in the near term," possibly beginning this year. The report by Kevin Page, the new Parliamentary Budget Officer, says the weaker economic outlook poses a risk to the government's attempts to achieve its "short-term and medium-term fiscal targets." Assuming no changes in Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's policies, "the downgraded economic outlook suggests the government would record modest and temporary deficits in the near term,"according to the analysis released this morning. While a budget surplus is still possible this year, the report warns the negative impact on government revenues because of the turmoil on financial markets is not yet known. "As a result, a deficit for this (2008-09) fiscal year is a distinct possibility." Page says the deterioration of the federal government's financial picture in the first nine months of 2008 is not so much the result of the weakened economy as Flaherty's policies, particularly the latest reduction in the GST tax and reduced corporate income taxes. This has caused federal revenues to decline by $353 million in the first nine months of this year. The budget office projects a budget deficit of $3.9 billion in 2009-10, although it adds that, if the economic downturn proves worse than expected, next year's federal deficit could hit $14 billion. The budget office was created in 2006 to provide independent fiscal forecasts for parliamentarians. This is Page's first budgetary study. Parliament's budget watchdog said Thursday Ottawa is in danger of running deficits starting this year, ballooning to as high as $13.8-billion next year, before returning to a surplus position starting in 2011-12. Nevertheless, the watchdog still projects a surplus for this fiscal year of at least $1.7-billion. Its "average" scenario, which is midway between worst- and best-case, projects a $3.9-billion deficit next year and a $1.4-billion shortfall in 2010-11. The outlook comes from the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, a newly-created body that aims to provide non-partisan economic analysis. It used nearly a dozen private-sector forecasts to develop its outlook, and made judgments as how certain changes in growth would affect federal coffers. It made its budget deficit call based on what is expected to be weak economic growth for the country as the global economy tries to pull itself out of a financial crisis. The "external factors" that supported recent growth in Canada have "reversed course," the office's report said. "The weaker Canadian outlook ... poses a risk for the government to achieve its stated short-term and medium-term fiscal targets," the budget officer, Kevin Page, said his outlook. "Assuming no major fiscal policy changes, the downgraded economic outlook suggests the government would record modest and temporary deficits in the near term." The budget office also warned that a deficit for this fiscal year remains "a distinct possibility," due to decisions to cut the GST and corporate taxes - and not weakened economic conditions. But officially, the office projects a surplus this fiscal year as low as $1.7-billion to as much as $6-billion. "While the year-to-date fiscal results, as well as all of our projection scenarios, suggest a modest surplus in 2008-09, it will be some time before the implications for [government] revenues of the recent financial market turmoil are known." Opposition politicians immediately pounced on the report, saying misguided Conservative decisions on spending and tax cuts put the country into a deficit position. "Will the Prime Minister admit, coming from his own appointee, Kevin Page, that he is no longer anywhere to hide? The deficit is not the fault of the international community. He and his reckless Finance Minister are the sole proprietors of Canada's deficit," John McCallum, head of the Liberal Party's economic team, said during debate in the House of Commons. Stephen Harper, the Prime Minister, responded: "We need to correct the facts. There are numerous prognostications about the future. And the Minister of Finance will deliver his fiscal update in the week to come -- and that will provide the facts to all members of Parliament." The fiscal update, scheduled for some time next week, will provide the Department of Finance's outlook on the economy. But Mr. Page's report steals some of the thunder. Mr. Harper added Thursday Canada remains in a surplus position, and is one of the few countries in the industrialized world that can boast about that during this current downturn. Meanwhile, Mr. Page said there are a range of policy initiatives the government can enact to address the current economic slowdown, among them a stimulus package to boost demand. But, he added, "the key challenge for policymakers is to address short-term pressures while maintaining a longer-term vision, enacting policies that are fiscally sustainable and address the fundamental long-term challenges." Chief among those long-term challenges is boosting Canada's lacklustre productivity growth. "With population ageing reducing growth in the labour force going forward, fostering productivity growth will be absolutely essential for ensuring sustained increases in living standards," Mr. Page said. In the Speech from the Throne, delivered Wednesday, the government warned of "misguided" attempts to stay in a budget surplus position given the state of the global economy. The last time Ottawa recorded a deficit was in 1996-97, when former finance minister and prime minister Paul Martin oversaw a shortfall of $8.7-billion. [email protected]
  7. not good gents.. Fitch Affirms Province of Quebec at 'AA-'; Outlook Revised to Negative Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:36pm EST * Reuters is not responsible for the content in this press release. 0 COMMENTS Fitch Affirms Province of Quebec at 'AA-'; Outlook Revised to Negative Fitch Ratings affirms the 'AA-' long-term ratings on senior unsecured obligations of the Province of Quebec, Canada, as detailed at the end of this release. In addition, Fitch affirms the outstanding 'F1+' short-term ratings on the Province of Quebec. The Rating Outlook is revised to Negative from Stable. SECURITY Senior unsecured obligations are direct and unconditional obligations of the Province to which the Province's full faith and credit is pledged. Commercial paper notes are promissory notes ranking equally with Quebec's other unsubordinated and unsecured indebtedness. For Financement-Quebec, payment of debt service is unconditionally guaranteed by the Province from the consolidated revenue fund. KEY RATING DRIVERS NEGATIVE OUTLOOK BASED ON DELAYED FISCAL BALANCE: The revision of the Outlook on the Province's long-term rating, to Negative from Stable, reflects the delay in achieving budgetary balance, to fiscal 2016 from fiscal 2014. The delay is based on slower economic and revenue performance since the fiscal 2014 budget was tabled and the consequent reduction in forecast economic and revenue growth thereafter. HIGH DEBT: Debt is high relative to resources and has grown as the Province works toward budgetary balance. Debt management is strong and centralized, and the Province maintains ample access to liquidity for both operations and debt service requirements, supporting the 'F1+' short-term rating. FISCAL FLEXIBILITY: Fiscal flexibility has been provided by a willingness to date to adjust tax policy and by progress in constraining spending growth; budgeted contingency funds provide additional cushion. Longer term spending control remains the most persistent risk to fiscal balance, particularly given lower spending growth targets in the revised fiscal consolidation framework. DIVERSE ECONOMY: The economy is large and diverse, and historically slower growing and less wealthy than the Canadian average. Modestly paced growth continues. Vulnerabilities include global trade links, particularly with the U.S. market, and a significant manufacturing sector. SOVEREIGNTY MOVEMENT REMAINS: The sovereignty movement has been a source of uncertainty in the past although it is not a current issue. FINANCEMENT-QUEBEC'S RATING LINKED TO PROVINCE: The rating for Financement-Quebec reflects the credit strength of the Province given the Province's unconditional guarantee. RATING SENSITIVITIES INABILITY TO ACHIEVE ECONOMIC AND FISCAL TARGETS: Additional near-term economic and revenue deterioration, or an inability to attain revised fiscal targets under current forecast trends would result in a rating downgrade. CREDIT PROFILE The revision of the Outlook on Quebec's long-term 'AA-' rating, to Negative from Stable, is based on weaker-than-planned economic and revenue performance since the fiscal 2014 budget was tabled, reducing the province's near-term revenue forecast and resulting in a two-year delay, to fiscal 2016, in achieving fiscal consolidation. Although the revised fiscal framework includes additional corrective actions to return to balance and offset the additional deficit borrowing now expected in fiscal years 2014 and 2015, a higher accumulated debt burden further reverses the progress on debt reduction made by the Province during the decade prior to the last recession. Despite the slow, uneven economic recovery now underway, Quebec's credit quality continues to be supported by careful fiscal and debt management, ample access to debt markets for liquidity needs, and past success of achieving progress in debt reduction and spending control. The Province has drawn on its considerable budgetary flexibility to date as it carries out its fiscal consolidation framework, including raising a variety of taxes and curbing spending growth. The latter is a particularly notable achievement, and Fitch believes the Province has additional flexibility to reduce spending. DEBT BURDEN WILL REMAIN HIGH The Province's high debt remains its most significant long-term credit challenge, in Fitch's view. Outstanding gross debt, including debt of consolidated entities and pension liabilities, was C$191.8 billion in fiscal 2013, equal to 53.6% of GDP. Debt service, at C$7.8 billion in fiscal 2013, consumed 11.5% of fiscal 2013 budgetary revenues, a high but manageable level. Much of the current debt burden stems from accumulated deficits built over prior decades and in the years since the 2008-2009 recession, amounting to C$118.1 billion in fiscal 2013 or 33% of GDP. Total public sector debt, at C$256.4 billion, equals 71.7% of GDP. Under the revised forecast through fiscal 2018, projected gross debt gradually flattens out, albeit at higher levels than envisioned in the government's previous plan. The government forecasts that gross debt will begin to decline as a percent of GDP in fiscal 2015, and its statutory debt burden target includes achieving a gross debt to GDP ratio of 45% and accumulated deficit to GDP of 17%, in fiscal 2026. Debt figures are net of the Generations Fund balance, a reserve for debt reduction, funded at about C$5.2 billion in fiscal 2013. Despite its high debt metrics, the Province has demonstrated broad market access for borrowing and is a sophisticated debt manager. ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTINUES AT SLOWER PACE As of its November 2013 forecast, Quebec's economic performance in 2013 is estimated to have slowed considerably compared to forecast expectations in March 2013 when the government last updated its economic outlook. After rising 1.5% in 2012, real GDP in 2013 is now estimated to rise only 0.9%. Real GDP growth in 2013 was expected to be 1.3% as of the government's March 2013 forecast, and 1.5% in November 2012, when the fiscal 2014 budget was tabled. The disappointing performance is attributed to numerous factors, including continuing weak global economic trends, more modest domestic consumption and much lower inflation. Economic gains are continuing, even if at a slower pace than expected. November 2013 employment rose 0.4% year over year, compared to 1% for Canada; unemployment, at 7.2% in November 2013, was ahead of the 6.9% Canadian level. The revised forecast assumes modest labor market gains through 2013, with the unemployment rate at 7.7% for the year. Forecast expectations for 2014 appear reasonable, in Fitch's view, with higher economic growth rates, albeit off the lower 2013 base. The update assumes real GDP growth accelerating to 1.8% in 2014, unchanged from the March 2013 forecast. Growth going forward is driven in part by the accelerating, but still slow, U.S. recovery, among other factors. The strength of the economic recovery in the U.S., Quebec's main international trading partner, remains a key uncertainty to achieving forecast expectations. The next forecast update will be released in spring 2014, when the fiscal 2015 budget is tabled. DELAYED FISCAL CONSOLIDATION Quebec, as with many Canadian provinces, has been on a multi-year path to restore budgetary balance since the recession of 2008-2009. In its fiscal 2010 budget, the province announced a framework for returning to budgetary balance by fiscal 2014, with gradually diminishing annual deficits. Disappointing 2013 economic performance and its effect on recent actual revenue collections and forecast growth is now prompting a delay, to fiscal 2016, in achieving balance and requiring additional actions to consolidate the budget. To date, the province has relied on considerable fiscal flexibility to diminish projected operating deficits, although in Fitch's view much less flexibility now remains given the extent of actions taken to date. The Province estimates tax rate changes since the framework began will generate a cumulative $6.3 billion in revenues as of fiscal 2014; recent phased-in changes, notably in consumption taxes, are believed to have affected consumer demand, and the government's newly-revised consolidation plan avoids additional tax rate adjustments. Quebec has had notable success in reducing spending growth. The government's revised fiscal framework relies on additional spending controls both to offset lower revenues and absorb certain spending increases (including a recently-announced stimulus program and for retiree obligations). Program spending growth has fallen from an average of 5.6% annually during the fiscal 2007-2010 period, to 1.2% in fiscal 2013; lower than planned spending helped to absorb some of the unexpected revenue weakness experienced during fiscal 2013. The government's revised framework maintains fiscal 2014 spending at the budgeted level, while reducing projected annual growth in fiscal 2015 and beyond to 2%. Fiscal 2014 is now forecast to end with a deficit of $2.5 billion, essentially matching the November 2013 downward revision in own source revenues; fiscal 2014 own source revenue growth is now expected at 2.6%, down from 5.2% in the March 2013 plan. The revenue outlook in fiscal 2015 and beyond also has been lowered accordingly, although newly-announced budget measures reduce the projected fiscal 2015 deficit to $1.75 billion. To offset the higher near term deficits and resulting higher borrowing, the revised framework increases planned deposits to the Generations Fund beginning in fiscal 2017. AFFIRMED RATINGS Fitch's affirmation of the long-term 'AA-' rating and revision to Rating Outlook Negative applies to the following senior unsecured bonds of the Province of Quebec and Financement-Quebec, as follows: Province of Quebec: --Senior unsecured debt; --Local currency long-term rating; --Long-term issuer rating. Financement-Quebec: --Senior unsecured debt; --Local currency long-term rating; --Long-term issuer rating. In addition, Fitch affirms the short-term 'F1+' ratings on the Province of Quebec and Financement-Quebec, as follows: --Province of Quebec short-term issuer rating; --Province of Quebec short-term commercial paper; --Financement-Quebec short-term issuer rating. In accordance with Fitch's policies the issuer appealed and provided additional information to Fitch that resulted in a rating action that is different than the original rating committee outcome. Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: --'Tax-Supported Rating Criteria', Aug. 14, 2012; --'International Local and Regional Governments Rating Criteria, Outside the United States', April 9, 2013. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: International Local and Regional Governments Rating Criteria http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=704438 T
  8. MONTREAL - Corruption and politics are shaking investor confidence in Montreal, says a 2014 outlook which ranks Quebec’s key metropolis dead last among nine Canadian cities for commercial real estate growth potential. “Whether it is related to construction, corruption, or politics, interviewees (surveyed) expressed uncertainty about investment in Montreal,” said the outlook compiled by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a professional services giant. The annual survey — which forecasts market trends and outlooks for different property types — also ranks commercial real estate markets in nine Canadian cities based on investment, rental and commercial property development and residential homebuilding potential.. The outlook is based on the views of 1,000 North American real estate industry experts surveyed or interviewed by PWC and survey partner, Urban Land Institute. While the outlook does not refer specifically to the Parti Québécois, elected with a minority government in 2012, one interviewee referred to an anticipated spring 2014 election when saying: “Montreal faces major risks because of uncertainty relating to politics.” In 2013, Montreal was ranked seventh out of nine markets in the survey and there were no remarks over politics or corruption. In the 2014 ranking, Montreal came in ninth, behind Halifax. PWC executives said they couldn’t elaborate on the political, or corruption fears raised by investors. “Sitting in Ontario, this (corruption) is getting a lot of (airtime),” said Frank Magliocco, a partner in the PWC’s audit and assurance group. “That may have had some impact on individuals who were ranking Montreal.” Deborah Dumoulin, a PWC partner, said she did not hear those same concerns voiced in Quebec: “This is not what would be coming from the Montreal market.” While economic growth is expected to rebound in Montreal to 2.1 per cent next year, a saturated office and condo market — combined with a forecast of weak employment growth — mean the city’s development prospects are limited compared to Canada’s booming west. The outlook on investment, a driver of tax revenues, comes at a time when Quebec Finance Minister Nicolas Marceau has already warned he might not be able to balance next year’s budget. Mélanie Malenfant, a spokesperson for Marceau, said she could not comment on the outlook since she was just made aware of it by a reporter. She pointed to PQ efforts to combat collusion, such as Transport Minister Sylvain Gaudreault’s recent unveiling of a 16-point strategy to lower the cost of public contracts. Bernie Marcotte, senior managing director of Cushman & Wakefield in Montreal, said there has been a slowdown in commercial real estate investments, but that’s mostly due to a weaker economy. “We see deals taking longer to complete. We have seen investment by private individuals slow down,” Marcotte said. “But the institutional investor, who’s there for the long haul, is still there.” Two real estate veterans, however, told The Gazette that they are seeing large investors reducing their exposure to Quebec, while Montreal-based developers expand into other provinces. One said investors have been shaken by the Parti Québécois’s focus on reasonable accommodation, including its so-called Charter of Quebec Values: “The government is distracted by social issues, they’re not focusing on the economy.
  9. http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Outlook+rosy+Montreal+real+estate/2238533/story.html