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Viger Project Montreal, Quebec, Canada Step 1: 2008 Step 2: 2010 Viger will be a 19-story, 828,000 square foot mixed-use project consisting of a 225,000 square foot hotel, 185,000 square foot of retail space, 385,000 square foot of residential space with parking for 1,400. The hotel portion includes the redevelopment of a 150,000 square foot historic chateau-style hotel. SUMMARY Address 710 Rue Saint-antoine E Montreal, Quebec, Canada Location Located in Montreal, Quebec Canada Hines' Role Development Manager Net Rentable Area Hotel: 225,000 sq. ft. (20,902 sq. meters) Residential: 385,000 sq. ft. (35,766 sq. meters) Retail space: 185,000 sq. ft. (17,186 sq. meters) The renaissance of Viger Square Phil O'Brien Senior advisor Telemedia DevelopmentI Inc. Mr. Philip O'Brien will be conducting a presentation about the Viger site on the eastern edge of Old Montreal. He will discuss the history of the site: the building of a grand hotel and railway station in what was then the central core of Montreal, its prominence as a prestigious address for business elites, and its cultural significance for the city of Montreal. The context of its decline during the 20th century will be outlined: from the changing economic conditions in the 1930s and its demise to its current state in the urban environment, resulting from the expansion of the railway yards, the digging of the open trench of the Ville-Marie expressway, and the demolition of a vast number of houses to make room for the CBC project. He will then highlight the exciting potential for redevelopment in light of changing local economic conditions and redevelopment opportunities for this area of town. Thursday, April 12, 2007 from 7:30 to 9 a.m. Ritz-Carlton Montreal 1228 Sherbrooke Street W. chateau_viger.pdf

Source: Bloomberg Quebec’s unemployment rate fell to the lowest on record last month while Alberta’s surged to a two-decade high, underlining the the swing in Canada’s economic momentum through the recovery from an energy crash. Joblessness in the mostly French-speaking province fell to 6.2 percent in November from 6.8 percent in October, and in Alberta it climbed to 9 percent. The national jobless rate declined to 6.8 percent from 7 percent, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. “I’m stunned -- it’s a banner year” for Quebec, said Sebastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities in Montreal. He linked good times to a construction boom in his hometown, a low dollar boosting service industries and business confidence aided by provincial government budget surpluses. The movement of jobs from the western oil patch to central Canada’s service and factory hubs meshed with Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz’s view that non-energy companies will help the world’s 10th largest economy recover over the next few years. Poloz said this week he would only cut his 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate if there was another shock like the oil crash. His next rate decision is Wednesday. “Quebec is within a whisker of posting the lowest unemployment rate in the country, something that we haven’t seen in the 40 years of available data,” said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. The job report “strengthens the view that the Bank of Canada will be perfectly happy staying on the sidelines.” Quebec is tied more to manufacturers like Canam Group Inc. and Montreal-based software makers, who benefit from Canada’s weaker dollar and a growing U.S. economy. South of the border, payrolls increased by 178,000 jobs, the Labor Department said, bringing the unemployment rate down to a nine-year low of 4.6 percent. The province added 8,500 jobs in November and over the past 12 months the number of unemployed people has dropped by 17 percent. It wasn’t all good news: part of the reason the jobless rate fell was 20,300 dropped out of the labor force, the most since since December 2014. Lavoie at Laurentian Bank said it would be “extremely surprising” for Quebec to make further major gains in the job market over the next year. The figures have yet to reflect some announced cutbacks at Bombardier Inc. that haven’t happened yet, and the U.S. might be about to get tough on Quebec’s large softwood lumber industry. “There are also growing uncertainties linked to trade,” he said. “There will be duties on lumber, so that’s not going to help future job creation.” The mixed pattern also showed up in the national figures. Employment climbed by 10,700 in November as 27,600 left the labor force. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected the jobless rate would be unchanged and employment would decline by 15,000.

Revitalizing Calgary's core: Some possibilities for rebirth 'Calgary has reinvented itself before ... from a ranching/agriculture-based economy to oil and gas' By Richard White, CBC News Posted: Jun 17, 2016 While it is shocking that Calgary's downtown skyscraper vacancy rate skyrocketed to 20 per cent at the end of March, and that it could soon surpass the vacancy record of 22 per cent set in 1983 (twice what it was a year ago), we should keep some perspective. These numbers are not unheard of in major corporate headquarter cities. Back in the 1970s, New York City was in decline. By the mid-70s, the city came close to bankruptcy and its office vacancy rate hit 20 per cent. In 1993, Toronto's downtown office vacancy rate hit 20.4 per cent. Vancouver's rose to 17.4 per cent in 2004. And these may not even be records, as data only goes back to 1990 for those cities. Today, New York City, Toronto and Vancouver's downtowns are booming. All downtowns go through periods of growth, decline and rebirth. Montreal's decline and rebirth In the '60s, the case could still be made Montreal was Canada's business capital. Its downtown was a major office headquarters for Quebec's natural resource industry as well as a thriving financial industry, including the head offices of the Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and insurance giant Sun Life. In 1962, when the Place Ville Marie office designed by iconic architects I.M. Pei and Henry N. Cobb opened, it symbolized Montreal's arrival as a world-class city. This was further reinforced with the hosting of Expo '67, the arrival of Montreal Expos baseball team in 1969, and the 1976 Olympics. However, the '70s brought the threat of separation, which prompted many corporate headquarters and their executives to move to Toronto. By 1971, Toronto's population surpassed Montreal's. The 1976 Montreal Olympics, the most expensive in history, plunged the city into a legacy of debt and decline for decades. Today, Montreal has reinvented itself as an international tourist destination and a major player in the gaming and music industries. New York's return from the brink In 1975, New York City was on the brink of bankruptcy. The gradual economic and social decay set in during the '60s. The city's subway system was regarded as unsafe due to crime and frequent mechanical breakdowns. Central Park was the site of numerous muggings and rapes; homeless persons and drug dealers occupied boarded-up and abandoned buildings. Times Square became an ugly, seedy place dominated by crime, drugs and prostitution. Today, New York City is back as one of the world's most successful cities, economically and culturally, and Times Square is again one of the world's most popular urban tourist attractions. Calgary's future Perhaps Calgary has already begun to reinvent itself. Despite the growing vacancy rate downtown, the CBRE's First Quarter 2016 Report says, "Not all commercial real estate in the city has been affected, though. Suburban office space held steady from the last quarter, and the industrial real estate market is still robust because it's not tied to oil and gas." Indeed, Calgary has become one of North America's largest inland port cities, including two state-of-the art intermodal rail operations. Calgary is now the distribution headquarters for Western Canada, a position once held by Winnipeg. And so Calgary's industrial sectors employ more people than the energy sector. Calgary Economic Development is working with the real estate community to implement a "Head Office/Downtown Office Plan" with three action items. One idea is the repurposing of smaller older office spaces as incubators and innovation hubs to attract millennials and/or entrepreneurs. A good example of this is in West Hillhurst, where Arlene Dickenson has converted an old office building at the corner of Memorial Drive and Kensington Road that was once home to an engineering firm into District Ventures, home to several startup packaged goods companies. Another repurposing idea would be to convert some older office buildings into residential uses. In the U.S., programs like Vacant Places Into Vibrant Spaces have been successful but mostly for office to residential conversions of older buildings with smaller floor plates. They don't work for offices buildings with floor plates over 7,500 square feet (which is the case for most of Calgary's empty high-rise office space), as it is expensive and difficult to meet residential building codes, which are very different from commercial ones, making it tough to compete with new residential construction. In an ideal world, Calgary could become a global talent hub, where skilled workers who have been displaced from the energy and related industries continue to live in Calgary but become a remote workforce for energy projects around the world. Temporary and permanent satellite offices could be established in Calgary with teams of engineers, geologists, accountants, bankers etc. working on projects around the world. The obvious strategy would be to woo international companies in the finance, insurance, transportation, agriculture, digital media and renewable resources to set up a Canadian or North American office in Calgary, maybe even relocate here. With cities like San Francisco, Seattle and Boston facing major affordable housing crises for millennial workers, Calgary could become a very attractive place for a satellite office for companies in those cities. One "off the wall" idea postulated by George Brookman, CEO of West Canadian Industries, would be to promote Calgary as an "International Centre for Energy Dispute Resolution," similar to the Netherland's TAMARA (Transportation And Maritime Arbitration Rotterdam-Amsterdam), which offers an extrajudicial platform for conducting professional arbitration for settling disputes. However, one wonders: Could Calgary compete with London and New York, which are already leaders in the international arbitration business? Incentivize rebirth Calgary has reinvented itself before, evolving from a ranching/agriculture-based economy to oil and gas in the middle of the 20th century. Indeed, the downtown core, which is an office ghetto today, would benefit immensely if incentives could be made to convert a dozen or so office buildings into condos, apartments or hotels to foster a rebirth of the core as a place to live. Calgary at a Crossroads is CBC Calgary's special focus on life in our city during the downturn. A look at Calgary's culture, identity and what it means to be Calgarian. Read more stories from the series at Calgary at a Crossroads. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-core-kickstart-richard-white-1.3638276

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/115-new-jobs-created-in-greater-montreals-fintech-industry---iocs-opens-its-first-north-american-software-development-centre-in-montreal-577237671.html MONTRÉAL and LONDON, United Kingdom, April 27, 2016 /CNW Telbec/ - IOCS - the world´s first developer of multi-tenant, end-to-end e-commerce platform for the processing of complex agreements - has chosen Montréal to establish its first software development centre in North America. With the support of Montréal International, IOCS, which is growing at an annual rate of 100%, will pursue its ambitious expansion strategy using Québec's metropolis as a springboard. The company plans to create a team of over 115 highly skilled employees in Montréal within the next three years.

C'est quoi vos opinions les gars? Honnêtement j'ai vécu ce scénario. Beaucoup de difficultés à trouver un emploi après mon bac. J'ai quitté pour l'Ontario pour prendre de l'expérience et revenu à Montréal après deux ans, mais je connais beaucoup de personnes éduqués qui ont resté à Ontario et c'est très dommage (avocats, ingénieurs, actuaires, etc). http://globalnews.ca/news/2608967/new-montreal-documentary-explores-anglo-youth-unemployment/ The film looks at the higher rate of unemployment for anglophone youth as opposed to francophone youth in Quebec’s largest city. According to career advisers, the lack of job opportunities for anglophones leads many to move to cities like Toronto. “Quite often, if English is an easier language for them, they leave Quebec,” said Iris Unger, YESMontreal’s executive director. “We’re losing a lot of really talented people.” According to the Association for Canadian studies, the unemployment rate is 8.4 per cent for anglophones and just 5.9 per cent for francophones. But for bilingual people, there’s still a discrepancy with a 5.8 per cent unemployment rate for anglophones versus a 3.4 per cent rate for francophones.

http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/healthy-economic-outlook-for-montreal-and-quebec-city-in-2016-570899271.html OTTAWA, March 3, 2016 /CNW/ - Quebec's two largest cities are forecast to enjoy healthy economic growth in 2016. Montréal and Québec City can expect growth of 2.3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively, according to The Conference Board of Canada's Metropolitan Outlook: Winter 2016. "The depreciation of the Canadian dollar and a healthy U.S. economy is bringing good news to Québec City and Montréal and their export-oriented industries. Economic growth in both cities has been on the upswing. In fact, we expect real GDP growth in both Montréal and Québec City to outpace the national average for the second consecutive year in 2016, after trailing it for five straight years" said Alan Arcand, Associate Director, Centre for Municipal Studies, The Conference Board of Canada. Highlights Montréal is expected to see real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent in 2016, up from 1.7 per cent last year. Québec City's real GDP growth is expected to reach 2 per cent in 2016. Vancouver's real GDP is forecast to grow 3.3 per cent, making it the fastest growing economy among the 28 census metropolitan areas covered in this edition of the Metropolitan Outlook. Montréal Montréal's economic improvement will be driven by a strengthening manufacturing sector, a rebound in construction, and steady services sector gains. Manufacturing output is forecast to expand by 3 per cent in 2016, bolstered by the combination of a weaker Canadian dollar and healthy U.S. demand. Two massive infrastructure projects—the $4.2-billion Champlain Bridge and the $3.7-billion Turcot Interchange—will help the local construction industry shake off three straight years of declines. However, a decline in housing starts will limit overall construction output growth to 2 per cent in 2016. Growth among the services-producing industries is projected to be 2.2 per cent in 2016, the same rate as in 2015. All eight industry sectors will advance this year, with the biggest gains coming from the business services sector and the personal services sector. In all, Montréal is expected to post real GDP growth of 2.3 per cent this year, up from 1.7 per cent in 2015. About 26,000 jobs are expected to be created in 2016. A similar rise in the labour force will keep the unemployment rate at 8.2 per cent, well above the national average of 7 per cent.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1895026/business-vacancies-skyrocketing-in-montreals-west-island/

Imaginez, même Le Globe and mail trouve des bon points sur Montréal c'est temps ci. Source: Globe and mail Montreal's murder rate reaches record low With 29 homicides recorded for 2008, police argue city one of the safest in North America MONTREAL -- In the 1970s, 80s and into the 90s, Montreal was saddled with scores of murders each year, a bloody battle that kept police busy and the crime tabloids happy. This year is closing out with a different kind of Montreal crime story: Homicides have hit record lows. Police report that, provided there are none today and tomorrow, 2008 is ending with 29 homicides, the smallest number recorded since the creation of the force in 1972. Since murder is considered a reliable barometer of social violence, police cautiously argue that Montreal is one of the safest major North American cities. Attempted murders are down, too. "Montreal is becoming like the suburbs," said Clément Rose, police commander of the major crimes division in Montreal. "People have this impression that Montreal is violent. That impression is false, really false, and these figures are real." Cdr. Rose said homicides have dropped so sharply, his 30-odd investigators have been devoting themselves to cold cases dating back as far as 1969. For the past four years, Montreal has recorded the lowest homicide rate among Canada's five biggest cities - the others are Toronto, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary. Toronto and Calgary, meanwhile, each recorded their highest homicide rate last year since the early 1990s. By way of comparison, Phoenix, a U.S. city of similar to size to Montreal, recorded more than 200 homicides last year. Philadelphia, with close to Montreal's population, had nearly 400. Several causes are cited for Montreal's drop. Police say efforts targeting street gangs have helped radically cut gang-related deaths; they fell to seven this year, half last year's total. Cdr. Rose said police have actively worked with leaders in immigrant and minority communities, who act as effective liaisons to resolve problems. "We've developed a better understanding of the street-gang phenomenon. It has let us develop informants and a better information network," he said. "In the long term, when you develop partnerships and friendships with these groups, it can't hurt." Homicides have also dropped since an anti-biker operation in 2001 put many organized-crime figures behind bars. Few homicides are committed by strangers, the kind of random crime that most frightens city dwellers. The overwhelmingly number of homicide victims in Montreal, as elsewhere, knew their attackers. Criminologists point to larger social shifts for the drop in homicides in Montreal. An aging population helps, something credited with bringing down the homicide rate across North America. "By the age of 40, you just don't have the guts to shoot people," Cdr. Rose said. "Everyone at 40 is more rational. Even crooks are more rational." But criminologists say that relative stability may help explain in part why homicide rates are consistently higher in Western Canada than in the east. The fast-growing cities of the West tend to be magnets for a younger, more mobile population. "An older society is a society in which people learn to live in peace with one another over time," said Maurice Cusson, a criminologist at the University of Montreal. Experts say it's noteworthy that a province with a dipping homicide rate - homicide in Quebec as a whole hit a 40-year low last year - is known for taking a distinctive approach toward dealing with offenders, favouring rehabilitation over harsh punishment. Quebeckers' attitude has placed it at odds with the tough law-and-order approach promoted by Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives. Quebec City, the province's second-largest urban centre, didn't record a single homicide in 2007 - a first for a large Canadian city since Statistics Canada began keeping figures in 1981. "Quebec is one province that has placed an emphasis on diverting people from the justice system and finding alternatives to prison," said Margaret Shaw, a criminologist at the International Centre for the Prevention of Crime in Montreal. Sometimes, even police acknowledge that luck can play a role in keeping down crime. Cdr. Rose says there's no way of knowing what a new year will bring; some say an economic downturn can have an impact on crime. "Right now, people love one another in Montreal," he said, half jokingly. "There is love in the city. All we can hope is that the same is true in 2009." Murder in major cities Criminologists say the Western Canadian cities have higher murder rates because of younger, more mobile populations. Homicides per 100,000 population 3.28 Edmonton 3.14 Calgary 2.41 Vancouver 2.01 Toronto 1.80 CANADA 1.58 Montreal

The Toronto Board of Trade's Scorecard on Prosperity ranks 24 cities based on economy and labour attractiveness #20 Montreal (Courtesy of The Globe and Mail)

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/Quebec+highest+acquittal+rate+Country/3338332/story.html#ixzz0v6w8XDYg Wow, this is not good.

July 28, 2010 Economic Snapshot Office vacancy rates hit five-year high, despite uptick in office jobs JOHN CLINKARD consulting economist, CanaData The national office vacancy rate reached 9% in the second quarter of 2010, continuing a trend that started in the fourth quarter of 2008. This rate was up from 8.8% in the first quarter and was its highest level since the second quarter of 2005. According to the most recent numbers from Cushman & Wakefield, the increase was largely due to the addition of 1.5 million square feet of new supply. And it occurred despite the fact that 911,800 square feet of space were absorbed in the quarter. The office vacancy rate retreated slightly in Calgary (from 13.4% to 13.3%) and Winnipeg (from 9.3% to 9.0%) but increased in the remaining eight major metro areas. Among the 10 largest census metro areas, St John’s, N.L. had the lowest office vacancy rate in the country (5.5%), despite a significant decline in office-based employment over the past year. Ottawa recorded the second lowest office vacancy rate (6.6%) due in large part to a strong (+7.6% year over year) increase in office-based employment in the second quarter. Other major metro areas with below (national) average vacancy rates in the second quarter included: Saint John, N.B. (7.9%), Toronto (8.1%), and Vancouver (8.4%). In Montreal the office vacancy rate increased from 9.1% to 9.2%, its highest level since the third quarter of 2007. The office vacancy rate for the 10 largest metro areas in Canada is now at its highest level in five years, and year-to-date commercial building permits are down by 3.5% year over year in May. As such, the near-term outlook for new office construction is quite guarded. The outlook is further clouded by the concerns about the health of the U.S./global recovery. Having said this, the relative strength of office-based employment in Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver continues to point to a pickup in office construction late in 2010 or early in 2011. John Clinkard has over 30 years’ experience as an economist in international, national and regional research and analysis with leading financial institutions and media outlets in Canada. :(:(

Houston study lauds red light cameras despite uptick in accidents We all know we shouldn't mess with Texas. And Houston, Texans shouldn't mess around with statistics, because the folks running the show are going to come to any conclusions they want no matter what the statistics say. This is the easy part: a study of red light cameras in the city shows that accidents have actually increased at intersections with the cameras. These are the parts that are open to interpretation: most intersections only have one camera looking at one (out of four) directions of traffic, but the accident rate went up for traffic in the other three unmonitored directions; and, in the one monitored direction, "accidents remained relatively flat or showed only a slight increase." What do you make of that? Mayor Bill White and the study authors say the city in general is experiencing a swell in the number of collisions, and claim that collisions at the monitored intersections haven't risen as much as the wider municipal rate. Yet they have no data to back up an increase in citywide collisions, and no year-on-year accident data at intersections (let alone an explanation for the uptick). White said that a 40-percent year-on-year drop in red light citations in the month of October shows the program is working and keeping drivers more safe. Critics say that the program is nothing but a cash register for city government. The study's authors plan to study insurance industry findings to come up with more substantive conclusions. http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/6185795.html

Ste. Catherine St. has top lease rates Tied with Bloor St. in Toronto. Most expensive retail corridors in Canada By LYNN MOORE, The Gazette June 8, 2010 Toronto's Bloor St. and Montreal's Ste. Catherine St. are Canada's most expensive retail corridors, according to Colliers International's 2010 Global Retail Report, released yesterday. Ste. Catherine St. is tied in 32nd position with Toronto's Bloor St. on the global list of shopping hot spots. Merchants in the two most popular Canadian shopping areas pay an average lease rate of $300 per square foot, according to the report. The 2010 Winter Olympic festivities in Vancouver were not enough for the city's marquee retail stroll -Robson St., with its average rate of $200 per square foot -to overtake Toronto and Montreal's premier retail streets on the list. Jim Smerdon, director of retail and strategic planning with Colliers, said the retailers themselves set the lease rates according to the importance of the location. "The hallmark of strong retail streets is a blend of the size of the market, things like accessibility and parking, and a host of intangibles such as the history of the street as a commercial destination," he said. Even though Toronto is larger than Montreal and the commercial capital of Canada with more head offices and wealthy residents, it's not surprising that Ste. Catherine St.'s shops can command the same rent, Smerdon said. Ste. Catherine St., which is often thick with pedestrians night and day, is an experience, he acknowledged. "Montreal is more of a destination for shoppers than Toronto is ... and Ste. Catherine is more of a lifestyle experience," he said. In 31st spot on the Colliers list was Honolulu's Kalakaua Ave. and 33rd spot was occupied by Amsterdam's Kalverstraat. The report shows that Canada's most exclusive streets are a bargain compared with the world's priciest, in such places as Paris, New York, Hong Kong and London, where rates per square foot exceed $1,000. Topping the list was the Champs Elysees in Paris, with an average lease rate of about $1,256. All figures in the report are in U.S. dollars. The information comes from surveys and material supplied by Colliers staff in 61 countries, Smerdon said. lmoore@thegazette.canwest.com © Copyright © The Montreal Gazette Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Catherine+lease+rates/3125235/story.html#ixzz0qXanL7Xi

(Courtesy of CTV Montreal)

(Courtesy of Bloomberg) I can't stand this. :mad:

Vacancy rates keep rising in third quarter for Canada's commercial real estate sector, report shows (CP) – 44 minutes ago TORONTO — The amount of empty office space across Canada continued to rise in the third quarter due to higher unemployment in white-collar industries and excess inventory in some cities, a new report shows. Vacancy rates for commercial real estate are expected to keep rising "well into 2010" as the country works through the impact of the recent recession, CB Richard Ellis Ltd. said in report released Monday. Vacancy rates rose for the third straight quarter to an average of 9.4 per cent, up from 6.3 per cent for the same time last year, said the real estate services firm. "Limited new job creation in Canada's 'white-collar' industries and the addition of new inventory in two of Canada's three largest office markets are cited as reasons for the increase," according to the National Office and Industrial Trends Third Quarter Report. Commercial vacancy rates rose most noticeably Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver, the report shows. Calgary's third quarter vacancy rate jumped to 13.1 per cent, from 4.7 per cent last year, due to the impacts of a slowdown in the oil and gas industry. "The city's oil and gas industry and commercial market remained inexorably linked, as players both large and small continue to recognize that even Calgary has not been immune to the country's new economic reality," the report states. In Toronto, the commercial vacancy rate rose to 9.1 per cent from 6.6 per cent last year. The vacancy rate in downtown Toronto is expected to climb further in the coming quarter as space becomes available in newly constructed office towers. In Vancouver, vacancy rates climbed to 8.9 per cent from 5.4 per cent for the same time last year. The report said Vancouver is one of the more stable markets in the country thanks to limited new development. Montreal's vacancy rate rose to 10.3 per cent from 8.3 per cent last year, while Halifax's rose to 10.2 per cent from 8.4 per cent. Vacancy rates also rose in the country's smaller office markets, specifically in suburban areas, but at a lesser rate, the report shows. It said cities with government office space also saw more stability in their commercial real estate markets. Ottawa had the lowest overall third quarter vacancy rate in the country of 5.8 per cent compared to five per cent for the same time last year, while Winnipeg's rate came in at 7.5 per cent up from 4.8 per cent last year. The overall vacancy rate in the Waterloo Region, home to such technology firms as Research in Motion (TSX:RIM), edged up slightly to 6.7 per cent from 6.4 per cent last year. The report predicts vacancy rates to keep rising in the fourth quarter and into 2010, "as Canada continues to grind its way out of the recession."

Office vacancy rates to go even higher: report Financial Post Published: Wednesday, August 05, 2009 Neither Calgary nor Toronto can expect any immediate relief, as both will see millions of square feet of new supply coming onto the market over the next 24 to 36 months (seven million for Calgary and five million for Toronto). Sean DeCory/National Post Neither Calgary nor Toronto can expect any immediate relief, as both will see millions of square feet of new supply coming onto the market over the next 24 to 36 months (seven million for Calgary and ... OTTAWA -- Vacancies in Canada's office market have surged to 8.5% and will climb toward levels not seen since the dot-com bust earlier this decade before finally levelling out, commercial broker Avison Young said in a report Wednesday. "The vacancy rate will definitely be trending up in the coming quarters," said Bill Argeropoulos, director of research at Avison Young. "We're not sure if it will breach the recent high of 11.5% in 2003, but we do see the vacancy perhaps breaching the 10% barrier in the coming quarters and perhaps into 2010, largely because of new supply coming into the market." Furthermore, said Avison Young chief executive Mark Rose: "The global financial crisis has had a significant impact on market psychology, creating inertia and paralyzing decision-making. Recovery . . . will occur only when corporate profits return, unemployment rates drop and decision-makers believe were are trending upwards." In the past 12 months, vacancies have climbed more than two percentage points from the 6.1% rate of mid-year in 2008, and Mr. Argeropoulos said it will likely be the end of 2011 before national rates begin to level off. Mississauga holds the distinction of having the highest office vacancy rate in the country at 10.8%. Toronto experienced the highest annual change among eastern cities, climbing from 6.6% to 9.6% in the past 12 months, a three-year high. Calgary, meanwhile, underwent the highest change in vacancy rates among western cities, soaring from 3.6% in mid-2008 to 9.3% by mid-2009. Neither Calgary nor Toronto can expect any immediate relief as both will see millions of square feet of new supply coming onto the market over the next 24 to 36 months (seven million for Calgary and five million for Toronto). Both will definitely surpass the 10% vacancy rate in the months ahead, Mr. Argeropoulos said. Calgary also saw the largest plunge in rental rates, with downtown Class A space collapsing to $30 per square foot from $46. This is still the most expensive in the country, however, along with Edmonton, where prices are also at $30. Nationally, lease rates for downtown Class A space fell to $22 per square foot in mid-2009 from $25 the year before. Prices ranged from a low of $13 in Quebec City to Calgary and Edmonton's $30. Avison's mid-year office survey tallies results for 12 regions across the country. Canwest News Service ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Unused office space up 75% in Q2: report Garry Marr, Financial Post Published: Tuesday, June 23, 2009 The amount of unused office space business put on the sublease market grew by almost 75% last quarter from a year ago, a further indication of the crumbling economy. CB Richard Ellis Ltd. said more than 7.7 million square feet of office space came back into the market across the country, an increase from the more than 4.4 million that hit the market in the same quarter a year ago. The sheer size of the increasing sublease market drove the national vacancy rate to 8.3% from 6.4% a year ago. "The deepening recession has prompted businesses across the country to continue to identify ways to trim overhead and pare back their need for phantom space," said John O'Bryan, vice-chairman of CB Richard Ellis. "The trend of doing with less right now is especially evident in Canada's major office markets. However, it is important to note that the commercial real estate market typically lags behind the residential market by a few months, so we are simply now experiencing the slowdown that other markets went through in the last quarter." Mr. O'Bryan said the Canadian market continues to fare better than United States markets where vacancy rates reached 15.9% at the end of the first quarter. Canadian vacancy rates were only 7.5% at the end of the first. "If we were in the U. S. right now looking at a national occupancy rate of 91.7%, there would be a widespread sense of optimism regarding the health of the country's commercial market." But there are clear signs across the country that the office market has been hit hard by the economy with vacancies rising everywhere. In Vancouver, the beaten-down technology and resource sectors helped drive sublet activity. The effect was to push the vacancy rate from 5.6% to 7.8%. The once-airtight Calgary office market has sprung a leak as lower oil prices have led many of Alberta's junior oil and gas companies to cut their space. In the second quarter, Calgary's vacancy rate rose to 10.2% from 4.6% a year ago. CB Richard Ellis says it will rise to 20% by the end of 2009. Vacancies in Toronto, the largest office market in the country, rose to 8.4% in the second quarter, up from 6.7% a year ago. CB Richard Ellis expects rates to continue to rise in 2009 and 2010. In Montreal, softness in the commercial market drove vacancy rates up from 8.5% to 9.7%, on a year-over-year basis. The real estate company said cost-containment measures by large tenants have impacted the market. Backed by the federal government, Ottawa is proving to have the best office market in the country. The overall vacancy rate grew to 5.1%, only a slight jump from the 4.9% a year ago. Ottawa's suburban offices, which are more dependent on the private sector, were hit harder than the government-dominated downtown core. gmarr@nationalpost.com Here's the complete report : http://www.avisonyoung.com/library/pdf/National/MidYear09-National-Office.pdf

In past recessions, city's developers learned the effects of overbuilding the hard way. Caution is paying off this time around ELEANOR BEATON Globe and Mail Update Two years ago, Yves-André Godon was scouring Montreal for an anchor tenant for his company's proposed 400,000-square-foot downtown office tower. At the time, Montreal's office market was looking rosy. The vacancy rate was a healthy 9.3 per cent and 6 per cent of the city's available office space was being leased each quarter – a record absorption rate, Mr. Godon says. The time looked ripe for the managing director of SITQ Canada, an international real estate investment company based in Montreal, to forge ahead with the development. But Mr. Godon hesitated. Even though it had been years since the city had seen new Class A office space built, he says many large-scale tenants seemed content to stay put; SITQ was having trouble attracting an anchor tenant quickly enough. “We didn't want to do anything on a speculative basis,” he says. Given the economy's subsequent downturn, Mr. Godon's instincts appear to have been right. It's a cautionary stance that was learned the hard way. During past recessions, overbuilding caused Montreal's office market to suffer more than in other parts of the country. But today, as other major cities contend with rising vacancy rates and the simultaneous delivery of millions of square feet of new office space, the kind of discipline that Mr. Godon displayed is helping to shield Montreal from the same drastic effects of the downturn. Montreal developers “lived through a lot of pain,” says Jean Laurin, president and chief executive officer of real estate advisory Devencore Ltd. “Few developers are going ahead until they find tenants.” As a result, “we have not had any exposure to overbuilding,” adds Robert Mercier, president of real estate services firm DTZ Barnicke (Quebec). The dearth of new developments is not the only factor. Also contributing is continued strong demand from tenants who are not players in the industries hit hardest by the downturn, such as energy, experts say. The combination means that Montreal now has one of the most stable office markets in the country. Even though at 9.7 per cent, Montreal's vacancy rate is higher than Toronto's (8.4 per cent) or Vancouver's (7.8 per cent), according to second-quarter figures from real estate firm CB Richard Ellis, downtown office vacancy rates in Montreal have risen less than in other major Canadian cities. Montreal's sublet space as a percentage of overall vacancy – a leading indicator of the health of the office leasing market – is, at 11 per cent, far lower than in other major cities, a sign that most tenants are holding onto their space, rather than putting it back on the market. The city is contending with a much smaller rise in sublet space than other cities. Insiders estimate that 10,000 to 15,000 square feet of sublease space comes back on the market each week. Unlike Calgary and Toronto, what little sublet space Montreal does put back into the market isn't competing for tenants with a glut of brand-new supply. Other than a recently constructed 840,000-square-foot Bell Canada Campus, the city has seen virtually no new office construction in recent years. In contrast, Toronto's central business district is facing the delivery of up to 3.1 million square feet of new office space, according to CB Richard Ellis. With little new development in the downtown in recent years, large-scale tenants in Montreal have few rental options, and therefore tend to stay put, further stabilizing the market. “Leasing is very strong on the renewal front,” Mr. Laurin says. Montreal also benefits from a diverse user base, says Brett Miller, executive vice-president of CB Richard Ellis in Quebec. He points out that the city's major employers represent solidly performing industries from the engineering, IT and video gaming industries. While Montreal may be performing well in comparison to other major cities, industry veterans aren't forgetting the lessons learned from the past. Developers such as Mr. Godon aren't planning any new developments until the economy recovers. “We're back to Real Estate 101,” he says. “That means focusing on serving the tenants we have, rather than looking for new projects.”

Le Canada gagne 35 900 emplois en avril Publié le 08 mai 2009 à 08h06 | Mis à jour à 08h09 Agence France-Presse Ottawa Le Canada a gagné 35 900 emplois en avril, de façon inattendue, essentiellement grâce aux travailleurs indépendants, tandis que le taux de chômage se maintenait à 8%, son niveau le plus élevé en sept ans, a annoncé vendredi l'institut de la statistique. Les analystes s'attendaient à une perte de quelque 50 000 emplois en avril après une saignée de 61 000 le mois précédent et à ce que le taux de chômage passe à 8,2%. Ce taux est resté inchangé à 8,0 % en avril par rapport à mars, car la hausse de l'emploi a coïncidé avec une croissance de la population active, note Statistique Canada. Malgré l'augmentation enregistrée en avril, 321 000 emplois ont été perdus au Canada depuis octobre 2008. En avril, le nombre de travailleurs indépendants a cru de 37 000, indique Statistique Canada dans un communiqué, précisant que 39 000 emplois à temps plein ont été créés, alors que 3600 emplois à temps partiel étaient perdus. Le secteur manufacturier, durement frappé par la crise, a gagné 6 700 postes en avril, mais il en a perdu 106 300 au cours des 12 derniers mois. La hausse de l'emploi en avril s'est manifestée pour l'essentiel dans les provinces du Québec (+22 000) et de Colombie-Britannique (+17 000). En avril le salaire horaire moyen avait progressé de 4,3% par rapport au même mois l'an dernier. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Canada adds 36,000 jobs HEATHER SCOFFIELD Globe and Mail Update May 8, 2009 at 8:13 AM EDT OTTAWA — The Canadian work force managed to grow slightly in April, adding 36,000 positions, mainly through self-employment, Statistics Canada said Friday. As a result, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8 per cent last month, the highest in seven years. “This is a better-than-expected report that no one saw coming,” said economists at ScotiaCapital Inc. “Yes, there were distortions including the heavy influence of a gain in self-employment that we mistrust at this point in the cycle. But the losses elsewhere were much less significant than feared.” The unexpected gain in employment sent the dollar up by 0.93 cent (U.S.) against the U.S currency. Economists had been expecting the pace of job loss to let up a little bit in April after months of steep decline, forecasting the elimination of 50,000 positions compared to 61,000 in March. They had predicted an 8.3 per cent unemployment rate, up from 8 per cent in March. While economists expect self-employment to expand during a recession, as laid-off workers create opportunities of their own, the increase in April was substantial. About 37,000 new self-employed positions were added to the work force, accounting for well over half of the 61,800 increase in self-employment over the past year. Jobs among people employed by others, on the other hand, fell a statistically insignificant 1,100 positions. Stabilization was also evident in the sectors that have shed the most jobs during the recession – manufacturing and construction. Employment in both those categories was changed very little in April, with construction employment declining 7,500 jobs and manufacturing employment growing 6,700 positions. In the goods side of the economy overall, employment barely budged in April, but has declined by a sharp 6.3 per cent since last October. The services side of the economy, which has been less touched by the recession, added 35,100 positions in April, particularly in the information sector and in culture and recreation. Since October, when the labour market began to slide, employment economy-wide has fallen by 321,000 positions. That's a decline of 1.9 per cent, with the losses concentrated in constructing, manufacturing and natural resources. Full-time employment rose by 39,000 positions in April, while part-time was little changed. However, full-time employment is still down 2.5 per cent since October. By region, employment rose in both Quebec and British Columbia. Quebec gained 22,000 positions, but because more people joined the work force, its unemployment rate rose to 8.4 per cent, from 8.3 per cent in March. British Columbia added 17,000 jobs, and its unemployment rate stayed still at 7.4 per cent. Still, the gains don't come close to making up for losses in the previous months. Ontario, where job losses have been severe, managed to stabilize in April, shedding 3,000 positions. Its unemployment rate stayed stable at 8.7 per cent. Ontario's job losses account for half of the country's total decline since October. By demographic, the April employment gains went mainly to adult men, and to women over the age of 55. Economists were surprised by the job creation, even though some indicators have suggested lately that the Canadian economy was showing signs of life. They warned that the job creation probably wouldn't last, since the all-important auto and manufacturing sectors are poised to cut severely in coming months, and because mothballed natural resource projects aren't about to roar back to life. Economists are often skeptical of self-employment numbers because they suspect that respondents to Statistics Canada's survey of households would rather say they're working for themselves than admit to being unemployed. Plus, many self-employed people earn considerably less than employed people. “That said, we can't dismiss the headline because of dubious self-employment gains, as there were only 1,100 job losses beyond the self-employment component,” the Scotia economists said. The labour report was undeniably good news, agreed Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns. “Now that's what I would call a green shoot,” he said. Still, he warned against getting too carried away. “While quite encouraging, it's important to recall that head fakes are always possible,” he said. During the darkest days of the recession of the early 1990s, for example, Canadian employment managed to rise in five separate months. “Still, this marks a huge improvement from the wicked job losses seen over the winter, and is yet another strong signal that the economy may be approaching bottom – certainly sooner than most forecasters believed possible just a few weeks ago.” Indeed, there are a growing number of signs that the free-fall that inflicted the Canadian economy at the end of last year and the beginning of this year began to let up in February and March. Auto and housing sales have picked up, the drop in exports slowed, manufacturing output stopped plunging and financial markets showed signs of recovery.

Ontario in decline: From Canada's economic engine to clunker Can Dalton McGuinty see the light and reverse the decay with his forthcoming budget? By Paul Vieira, Financial Post March 23, 2009 A month before Dalton McGuinty, the Liberal Ontario Premier, hit the election trail in the fall of 2007 to seek a second mandate, an ominous warning sign of the province's crumbling economic stature emerged that should have provided fodder for the campaign. An analysis from leading Bay Street economist Dale Orr said Ontarians' standard of living had plummeted -- from a peak of 15% above the Canadian average in the mid-1980s to just more than 5%. Accompanying the analysis was a warning of further erosion by 2010. Alas, the eye-opening report hardly generated buzz during the election campaign. Instead, most of the talk was about a Conservative proposal to provide government funding for faith-based schooling. Ontarians didn't warm to the idea and re-elected Mr. McGuinty's Liberals with another majority. Reflecting today on that report, Mr. Orr said his nightmare scenario for Ontario has unfolded as envisaged. If anything, the situation in the province may be worse. As the McGuinty government prepares to table its sixth provincial budget on Thursday, it does so knowing the province that was once the country's economic engine is now the clunker of the confederation. While former have-nots such as Saskatchewan post surpluses this fiscal year, Ontario is bleeding red ink--a cumulative two-year deficit of $18-billion. Ontario's dramatic decline comes as no accident. It was decades in the making, based on a combination of mismanaged public finances and the ascent of emerging economies at the expense of high-cost manufacturing. Upon taking office in 2003, Mr. McGuinty moved to pour tens of billions of dollars into improving government services -- health care, education and social programs targeting the downtrodden -- while neglecting the changing economic landscape. To help finance this agenda, he raised corporate taxes and slapped a health-care levy on households. These moves, analysts say, helped cement Ontario as one of the least attractive places for companies to invest. Analysts wonder whether the economic crisis is finally going to force Mr. McGuinty and Dwight Duncan, his Minister of Finance, to make tough choices on spending and undertake the kind of tax reform -- as displayed this week by New Brunswick-- that will help the province attract investment to offset heavy job losses in Ontario. Derek Burleton, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said Thursday's budget presents a possible turning point for the province. "There is no doubt we are undergoing a period of transformation as some of the industries that have driven healthy gains in living standards are on the decline," said Mr. Burleton, who co-authored a report with TD chief economist Don Drummond last fall that called on the province to embrace a "sweeping" new economic vision. "Given the sizeable deficit the province faces, that will put increasing pressure on the government to prioritize." One of those priorities is for Mr. McGuinty to cease his preferred manner of dealing with difficulties in the industrial heartland -- funneling tens of millions of dollars to the manufacturing sector, particularly automotive, through targeted tax relief or direct subsidies. "What the province should have been doing over the years was to make the province more flexible in attracting new businesses and not diverting resources into declining sectors," said Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C. D. Howe Institute, a Toronto-based think-tank that has been critical of Ontario's tax breaks for struggling sectors such as autos and forest products. "Do you want to steer resources to the sectors where the outlook is positive and growing? Or do you want to divert resources from these stars, which are more likely to generate the long-term employment and wage growth that Ontario is accustomed to?" The manufacturing sector, and its high-paying jobs, used to be the province's crown jewel. But as a component of Ontario's GDP, it has dropped from a peak of 23% in 2000 to roughly 18% on factors such as a richer Canadian dollar, higher energy costs and offshore competition. It is expected to fall further once the dust settles from this crisis. The province was largely able to mask the decline in manufacturing through a combination of a booming housing market, a surge in public sector hiring and a robust financial services sector. The financial crisis, however, has exposed those flaws. For the period starting in 2003, only Quebec and Nova Scotia have produced weaker growth than Ontario. Forecasts suggest Ontario was the only province whose economy shrank last year, and economists say it will record either the worst, or second-worst performance, among provinces this year. Scotia Capital, for instance, has Ontario's economy contracting 2.9% in 2009, and posting meagre growth of 1.4% in 2010, below the expected national average. Of the roughly 295,000 jobs lost in Canada since October, nearly half have come from the province. The result? Unemployment in Ontario, at 8.7%, is now higher than it is the United States (8.1%) and above Quebec's 7.9% jobless rate-- the first time that has happened in three decades. The news is not expected to get any better any time soon. "We believe that the unemployment rate in Canada's largest province should hit 10% by 2010, even if the automobile sector's restructuring plan works," said Sebastian Lavoie, an economist at Laurentian Bank Securities. Further, Mr. Lavoie said wage growth in the province is destined to take a hit. In the past, companies were forced to offer comparable wages and benefits based on what the Canadian Auto Workers would negotiate with the Detroit car makers. But Mr. Lavoie said that will no longer be the case, with CAW accepting salary freezes and making concessions on perks such as cost-of-living-allowance. The financial crisis has just exacerbated a growing trend, said Mary Webb, senior economist at Scotia Capital. Ontario's receipts from foreign-bound exports last year represent an 11.7% drop from a peak of $185.1-billion recorded in 2000. For the same time period, Quebec's receipts fell by just 2.9%. For the rest of Canada, excluding Ontario and Quebec, receipts have surged a whopping 72%. Compounding Ontario's problem is the emergence of big deficit, fuelled in part by shrinking tax revenue and years of escalated program spending. Under Mr. McGuinty, program spending now stands at $23-billion per year more than when he took office in October, 2003, an increase of 36%. In fiscal year, 2007-08, program spending climbed more than 10% to $87.6-billion, compared with a 5.4% increase in tax revenue. Observers note Mr. McGuinty's ascent to power in 2003 can be attributed to a desire for change among Ontarians after years of the hard-nosed, right-leaning Conservative regime that earned scorned for cutting government services. Mr. McGuinty's two terms have been dominated by a push to restore spending on public goods such as education, health care, infrastructure and social services. Analysts say Mr. McGuinty was on the right track to bolster some key building blocks, such as post-secondary education. To help pay for this, Mr. McGuinty raised the corporate tax -- to 14% from 12% --in his first budget. "The balance of [McGuinty's] approach was not quite right," said Jack Mintz, public policy professor at the University of Calgary and renowned tax expert. "The problem was trying to [reinvest in public services] while at the same time trying to maintain a vibrant industrial sector." Mr. Mintz and other analysts say Ontario's tax regime, as currently structured, is suffocating the province's ability to attract investment and rebuild the economy. Last year, Jim Flaherty, the federal Finance Minister, suggested the tax system was making Ontario the "last place" businesses wanted to invest. Mr. Flaherty took lots of heat for that remark, but he was on to something. Mr. Mintz's research indicates the province's marginal effective tax rate on capital, which encompasses all levies slapped on investment in the province, stands at 35%, six points higher than the Canadian average, 29%. Further, the Ontario rate ranks as the ninth-highest in the world, tied with Japan. Despite moves to eliminate capital tax in 2010, and other business tax reductions from the federal government, Ontario's marginal rate is expected to drop only three points to 32% by 2012 -- still higher than all provinces and exceeding the national average. "Ontario will not be successful in retaining existing businesses and attracting new ones if its taxation system is not on sound competitive footing with other provinces and countries," said the TD report by Messrs. Burleton and Drummond. There are signs that Mr. McGuinty is acknowledging the need to change. Despite previous opposition, he said in January the province would take a "long, hard look" at harmonizing its provincial sales tax with the GST. As currently structured, Ontario's sales tax derives almost half of its revenue from taxing business inputs such as productivity-enhancingequipment. Harmonizing with the GST would shift the tax burden to households, but economists argue it would boost business investment and make Ontario more attractive. In a C. D. Howe research paper he released yesterday, Mr. Poschmann said putting an end to the "archaic" sales tax and harmonizing with the GST would move Ontario from a high-tax jurisdiction to a medium-tax jurisdiction by 2012, with the marginal rate on investment falling just over 10 percentage points. A signal toward sales tax harmonization could be contained in Thursday's budget, although observers are hedging their bets given the potential voter backlash. Any further moves on taxation, whether business or personal, may have to wait given the province's monster deficit and an unwillingness to give up further revenue to fund public service initiatives. "Ontario is going to be deeply challenged," Mr. Mintz said, "because it is going to be very hard for the government to do anything when you are so fiscally restrained-- unless it wants to make the deficit even bigger now." Glen Hodgson, senior vice-president and chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, said the needed tax reductions would not see the light of day until Ontario decides what to do about health-care spending, which is growing at an annual clip of 8% to 10% and is the single biggest expense item in the budget. "This is a catalytic moment for the province," Mr. Hodgson said. "The light bulb has gone on, but it is not burning brightly yet. A lot of people would like to return to the Old World. But I think the Old World is gone -and that's the dilemma Ontario faces." --------- MANITOBA, N.B. SET EXAMPLE: As Ontario attempts to pull itself out of its economic quagmire, it can look to the provinces of Manitoba and New Brunswick for leadership. While the recession is expected to hit every province, Manitoba comes out near the top in most forecasts as one of the country's better performers in 2009. In its outlook, the Conference Board of Canada projects slight growth in the province of 1%, powered by infrastructure projects and tax cuts. Jack Mintz, public policy professor at the University of Calgary, said Manitoba was, along with Ontario, considered a high-tax jurisdiction for business investment. But the government has moved and Manitoba's marginal effective tax rate on investment dropped from 37% in 2007 to 33.8% last year. It is now scheduled to fall to 26.7% by 2012. "It is on the high side, but it will be closer to the national average" in 2012,Mr. Mintz said. "From the point of view of people who need to make investment decisions now, they know these changes are in place over the next several years. So Manitoba looks more appealing." Manitoba also benefits from having one of the most diversified economies in Canada. Roughly 30% of its economy is agriculture, which is more resilient to economic downturns. Further, Manitoba has a diversified manufacturing base with aerospace and buses playing key roles - and, unlike autos, demand for those products continues to be fairly solid. It also has abundant, cheap hydroelectricity. In contrast, questions abound over the reliability of Ontario's power grid, especially in light of the 2003 blackout that blanketed the province and much of the U.S. northeast. Meanwhile, analysts have applauded New Brunswick for taking aggressive steps on taxation this week in an effort to make the province more attractive for both investors and workers. The main change is the replacement of the existing four-bracket personal income tax structure to a simpler two-bracket structure by 2012. The lowest rate will be 9% for workers earning less than $37,893. Beyond that threshold, a flat tax of 12% will be applied. Perhaps more stunning, however, is that New Brunswick plans to lower its general corporate tax rate from 13% to 12%, effective this year, and all the way down to 8% by 2012 - the lowest in the country. "The New Brunswick government appears to be relatively more proactive compared to other jurisdictions, taking bolder steps to improve its economic and fiscal roadmap," said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities, in his analysis of the province's budget. Source: Paul Vieira, Financial Post pvieira@nationalpost.com ONE-TIME POWERHOUSE CAN'T KEEP UP WITH REST OF THE COUNTRY: Ont. Export Receipt Drop 11.7% Que. Export Receipt Drop 2.9% Receipt Rise Rest Of Canada 72% Ontario GDP Decline, 2009 2.9% RANKS OF WORKERS IN CANADA'S LARGEST PROVINCE TAKE IT ON THE CHIN: Ontario Unemployment 8.7% U.S. Unemployment 8.1% Quebec Unemployment 7.8% Ontario Unemployment, 2010 10% © Copyright © National Post

Jobless claims soar 21% in Canada Financial Post March 24, 2009 1:02 Lukas Stewart, with his resume strapped to his body, uses a megaphone to attract the attention of potential employers on Bay Street in Toronto's financial district.Photograph by: Mark Blinch/Reuters, Mark Blinch/ReutersOTTAWA -- The number of people receiving employment insurance benefits rose to 567,000 in January, a 21.3% jump from the year before. British Columbia saw the biggest percentage increase, rising 47.7% from last year, followed by Alberta, 46%, and Ontario 43%, Statistics Canada said Tuesday. But Ontario, where the manufacturing sector experienced heavy layoffs, suffered the biggest number increase with claims rising by 54,570 from the year before. “In recent months, labour market conditions in Canada have deteriorated significantly,” the agency said in its report. “Through the early part of 2008, employment growth weakened, only to fall sharply later that year and into 2009, causing a spike in the unemployment rate. By February 2009, the unemployment rate hit 7.7%, up almost two percentage points from a record low at the start of 2008.” The number of beneficiaries is a measure of all persons who received employment insurance benefits from Jan. 11. to 17. In Alberta, 23,300 people were receiving regular EI benefits in January, up 10.5% from the month before. British Columbia had 56,100 beneficiaries, up 9%, while Ontario had 181,500 people receiving EI, which was a 6.2% increase over December. The agency noted year-over-year figures shows the increase in the number of men receiving regular was double that of women. © Copyright © National Post

Deflation a concern in North America By Paul Vieira, Financial Post February 20, 2009 OTTAWA -- Inflation in North America is to remain benign for the months -- and perhaps years -- ahead, analysts say, as a shrinking global economy undercuts commodity prices and inventories in Canada remain at excess levels. Data were released in both Canada and the United States on Friday. The Canadian numbers, Bay Street economists say, further strengthen the case for the Bank of Canada to cut its key lending rate by a further 50 basis points on March 3. Further, the data indicate deflation remains a concern for policy-makers on both sides of the border. Statistics Canada said the headline inflation rate dropped for a fourth consecutive month, to 1.1% from 1.2%. The Bank of Canada’s core rate, which removes elements subject to volatile prices, such as energy, dropped to 1.9% from 2.4%. That is in contrast to the United States, where the cost of living rose 0.3% in January, the first climb in six months based on stronger energy prices. Last month, prices fell 0.8%. The U.S. numbers initially eased deflationary fears. Analysts, however, were not so confident. "The near-term risk has lightened a little bit, but if anything the medium-term risk may have been ramped up a notch or two by the clear evidence about how the global economy is sliding," Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said. "The deep dive in the global economy threatens to further undercut commodity prices, and more broadly, pricing power in other industrial goods." Mr. Porter said the BMO economics team envisages the global economy shrinking 0.5% this year. As it happens, economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank issued an updated outlook that forecasts a similar contraction in the world economy -- the first since the Second World War. "Deflation is not a paramount risk right now -- but it is a risk when you are looking at a global contraction," said Richard Kelly, the TD senior economist who issued the revised global forecast. The Bank of Canada had forecast inflation would dip below zero for two quarters this year, largely based on the big drop in energy prices. However, the central bank has dismissed concerns about deflation, calling risk "remote." Mr. Porter said he believes Canada can avoid deflation, "but my conviction is weakening given just how weak the global economy has become." In a related report, David Wolf, chief Canadian economist at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch, said inventory held by Canadian companies remains at higher levels compared with their U.S. counterparts. As a result, this excess supply will attract lower prices -- which will further drive down inflation. Mr. Wolf added there remains an "excess" overbuilding of housing supply in Canada. "That will continue to be a factor that will put a lot of downward pressure on prices," he said, adding that new house prices make up a small component of the consumer price index. © Copyright © National Post

Economy Shed 598,000 Jobs in January Article Tools Sponsored By By EDMUND L. ANDREWS Published: February 6, 2009 WASHINGTON — The United States lost almost 600,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 7.6 percent, its highest level in more than 16 years, the Labor Department said Friday. It was the biggest monthly job loss since the economy tipped into a recession more than a year ago, and it was even worse than most forecasters had been predicting. In addition, the government revised the estimates for previous months to include another 400,000 job losses. For December, the government revised the job loss to 577,000 compared with an initial reading of 524,000. Over all, it said, the nation has lost 3.6 million jobs since it slipped into a recession in December 2007. “Businesses are panicked and fighting for survival and slashing their payrolls,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “I think we’re trapped in a very adverse, self-reinforcing cycle. The downturn is intensifying, and likely to intensify further unless policy makers respond aggressively.” Despite the jobless number, Wall Street opened strongly with all three major exchanges up more than 1.5 percent. As in previous months, employers in January slashed their payrolls in almost every industry except health care Manufacturers eliminated 207,000 jobs, more than in any year since 1982. The construction industry eliminated 111,000 jobs. And retailers, who were wrapping up their worst holiday shopping season in years, eliminated 45,000 jobs. One modest exception to the bad news was in workers’ wages, which have thus far not reflected the dramatic plunge in employment. Hour earnings edged up to $18.46, up 5 cents, and average weekly earnings climbed $614.72, up $1.67. But over all, the new data reinforced the impression of an economy that has become increasingly trapped a vicious circle slumping consumer demand, falling business investment, rising unemployment and mounting losses in the banking system. Christina D. Romer, head of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, said the report reinforced the need for Washington to acted quickly on a economic stimulus package. “If we fail to act,” Ms. Romer said, “we are likely to lose millions more jobs and the unemployment rate could reach double digits.” Although the United States officially slipped into a recession in December 2007, the decline was erratic and temporarily disguised by the impact of the emergency tax-rebate last spring. Since September, analysts say, economic activity suddenly plunged on almost every front. The monthly pace of job losses shot up to about 500,000 a month for the last three months of 2008, and the new report offered no hint that bottom is in sight. Last week, the number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims reached a 26-year high, with 626,000 filling out initial applications. “This is a horror show we’re watching,” said Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, a left-of-center economic research organization in Washington. “By every measure available-loss of employment and hours, rise of unemployment, shrinkage of the employment to population rate- this recession is steeper than any recession of the last forty years, including the harsh recession of the early 1980s.” Most forecasters had predicted that the economy would lose about 540,000 in January. Instead, the Labor Department estimated that 598,000 jobs disappeared. To be sure, monthly payroll numbers are subject to big revisions in the months that follow. But most other indicators of the job market had been trending worse as well. Major retailers, rocked by one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in memory, have been shutting stores and laying of armies of workers in recent weeks. On Thursday, the nation’s retailers reported that sales fell 1.6 percent in January, the fourth consecutive month of steep sales declines. And in sign that the country’s slowdown continues to reach beyond its borders, Canada, America’s largest trading partner, reported Friday that its unemployment rate jumped to 7.2 percent in January, from 6.7 percent in December. In Washington, Friday’s gloomy job report put more pressure on Congress to pass an economic stimulus bill. The House passed a bill last week that would provide more than $800 billion in spending and tax cuts. In the Senate, still bogged down by objections from Republicans, lawmakers were hoping to be able to muster enough votes to pass a measure on Friday “Today’s unemployment numbers are even worse than we thought,” said Representative Barney Frank, the Massachusetts Democrat who leads the House Financial Services Committee. “If anything can persuade Congressional Republicans to stop their hyper partisan sniping at the recovery package, these disastrous employment numbers should be it.” For comparison, the unemployment rate was 4.9 percent in January 2008. But some analysts contend that the current unemployment rate of 7.6 percent understates the labor market’s problems because the percentage of adults participating in the labor force has slumped in recent years, and those people are not listed as “unemployed.” Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland, estimated that if the labor force participation rate today was as high as it was when President Bush took office, the unemployment rate would be 9.4 percent. Ian Shepherdson, chief North American economist for High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, N.Y., said the government had become the only source of energy left to break the cycle of slumping demand for goods and falling production. “The public sector needs to act,” Mr. Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients. “It needs to prevent an endless spiral of attempts to increase saving, leading to reduced spending, leading to reduced incomes, leading to further attempts to raise savings, and so on.” “We remain firmly of the view that the package now in Congress is the bare minimum required to slow the shrinkage of the economy over the next year.” Many economists expect that the economy will continue to contract until July at the very least, but at a slowing pace in the second quarter. That would make it the longest recession since the 1930s, outlasting the two record-holders, the mid-1970s and early 1980s downturns. Each of these recessions lasted 16 months. The current recession, which started in December 2007, would reach that milestone in April. The Federal Reserve continues to pump money into the financial system at a furious pace. Since September, the central bank has more than doubled its reserves, from $900 billion to more than $2 trillion, by literally creating new money. The Fed has used some of that money to help bail out financial institutions, from Citigroup and Bank of America to the American International Group. It has been pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into new lending programs, stepping in for banks and other financial institutions to buy up a widening array of corporate debt. Later this month, the Fed will begin a $200 billion program, in conjunction with the Treasury, to finance consumer debt ranging from car loans and credit card debt to student loans. But analysts say that the big problem is not a shortage of money, but a shortage of demand for products by businesses and consumers. As a result, banks are overloaded with excess reserves, made available by the Fed, which they are often simply parking at the Fed. _________________________________________________________________________ Les Américains payent le gros prix pour les banquiers de Walt Street, je n`ai pas de pitié pour eux, ils ont plongé le monde en crise, en ce sens, ils méritent grandement les conséquences...

Le ralentissement du marché publicitaire fait sombrer le diffuseur dans les pertes à son premier trimestre. Pour en lire plus...

Job picture may be worse than it looks Many losses were full-time positions. Weakness in U.S. saps Canada as unemployment rate rises to 6.6% By SHEILA MCGOVERN, The Gazette; Reuters contributed to this report January 10, 2009 Canada's unemployment rate shot up more than expected in December, but avoided the carnage witnessed in the U.S. where the jobless rate is now the highest in 16 years. Still, Canadian economists aren't heaving a sigh of relief. The country is definitely in recession, there's more bad news ahead and it would be naive to think Canada won't feel repercussions from the bloodbath to the south, said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities. And that includes Quebec, he quickly added. "This week, we've seen articles here and there stating somehow Quebec was on some other planet, able to ride out this storm. Well, not. We are on the same planet as everyone else." And the dreadful situation in the U.S. will sap Canada's manufacturing sector, based in Quebec and Ontario, he said. Canada lost 34,400 jobs in December, driving the unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent from 6.3 per cent, fuelled by losses in construction. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says housing starts slid 11.8 per cent in November, the third double-digit decrease in four months. Quebec saw its unemployment rate rise to 7.3 per cent from 7.1 per cent, because of losses in construction, trade and the tourism industry. And the figures are actually more troubling than they appear, Leitao said. There were major losses in full-time jobs, he said, which were partly offset by gains in part-time work. "That's not exactly a recipe for great prosperity. We have weak job creation and the quality is less than a year ago." And it isn't about to get better, said Krishen Rangasamy of CIBC World Markets. "With forthcoming plant closures and layoffs already announced, it's clear the worst is yet to come on the employment front, with the unemployment rate likely to creep up steadily toward eight per cent." However, economists said we can take some solace: for a rare moment, our unemployment rate is less than that of the U.S. Though the past two months have been tough here, employment in Canada at least grew between December 2007 and December 2008, albeit by a scant 0.6 per cent (an addition of 98,000 jobs, 100 of them in Quebec.) The U.S. has been losing all year and, in December, was hit with a massive drop of 524,000 jobs, driven by layoffs in all major sectors except government, education and health. That pushed its unemployment rate to 7.2 per cent from 6.8 per cent in November, higher than the seven per cent analysts were forecasting and a peak not seen since January 1993. Total job loses for 2008 reached 2.6 million, the largest decline since a 2.75-million drop in 1945. "The job situation is ugly and is going to get uglier. There's no reason to expect hiring anytime in the next three to six months. We are not going to see any hiring until the government steps in and acts. Talk doesn't work," said Richard Yamarone, chief economist at Argus Research in New York. The collapse of the U.S. housing market and the resulting financial crisis have triggered the worst financial environment since the Great Depression, and businesses and consumers have both retrenched. The darkening labour market picture underscored the sense of urgency President-elect Barack Obama and lawmakers feel about enacting a huge economic stimulus plan. "Clearly the situation is dire. It is deteriorating and it demands urgent and immediate action," Obama told a news conference yesterday. "This morning, we received a stark reminder about how urgently action is needed." smcgovern@ thegazette.canwest.com