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It is among the cities most heavily indebted and at risk of defaulting on its loans, according to Nomura Holdings Inc By Enda Curran - Jun 10, 2015, 20:21:07 Under a plan approved by China's State Council yesterday, Wenzhou will develop more types of bonds and allow trading of unlisted equities, technology and cultural products, according to a statement on the government’s website. Wenzhou is among the Chinese cities most heavily indebted and at risk of defaulting on its loans, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. In a new analysis described as one of the first of its kind, Nomura has dug into China's lending trail to see which cities and provinces are creaking under debt. They examined credit risks covering 30 provincial authorities and 265 cities. The report comes as bad loans and defaults in China tick higher and local governments struggle to meet repayments after years of binge borrowing to build roads and bridges and keep the economy growing. Mizuho Securities Asia estimates China's regional liabilities have now reached 25 trillion yuan ($4 trillion), bigger than Germany’s economy. Here's what Nomura's research found: the highest default risk is concentrated in the coastal and western provinces. Central China fares better. The danger provinces include Qinghai, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Hainan, Jiangsu, Fujian, Guizhou, Gansu, Chongqing and Heilongjiang. "Assessing the geographic distribution of risks is becoming increasingly important, particularly as China’s bond market is on the verge of explosive growth," Nomura analysts led by Yang Zhao wrote in the report. Among the cities, about 60 so-called third and fourth-tier cities carry the highest risk. These include: Datong in Shanxi province, followed by Sanya in Hainan, Wulanchabu in Inner Mongolia, Ganzhou and Shangrao in Jiangxi, Lishui in Zhejiang, Wenzhou in Zhejiang and Bazhong in Sichuan. First-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai fared better in the analysis, helped by stronger economic fundamentals. Nomura used 13 indicators that cover four risk areas: property market, fiscal, financial and economic fundamentals. China isn't the only country with heavily indebted cities or state governments. In the U.S., Detroit and Stockton, California both emerged from bankruptcy in the past year. It's the pace of Chinese borrowing and a lack of transparency around how much debt there is that has investors worried. Nomura estimates that China's local government bond market may balloon from around 1.2 trillion yuan to 12 trillion yuan by 2020. A string of defaults would gum up the lending system, bring economic growth to a halt and runs the risk of social unrest. So the idea is to keep the credit flowing. http://bloom.bg/1cMoOph Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

How $40 oil would impact Canada’s provinces What does Canada’s economy look like with oil prices at $40 a barrel? Certainly it won’t be the energy superpower envisioned by Prime Minister Stephen Harper. If $40 a barrel still seems a ways off, consider that the benchmark price for oil sands crude is already trading in that price range. What’s more, if production from high-cost sources isn’t withdrawn from an oversupplied market, oil prices may soon be trading even lower. The first thing Canadians should recognize about the new world order for oil prices is that – contrary to what we’re being told by our federal government – the economy is no longer in dire need of any new pipelines. For that matter, it can live without the new rail terminals being built to move oil as well. Yesterday’s transportation bottlenecks aren’t relevant in today’s marketplace. At current prices there won’t be any massive expansion of oil sands production because those projects, which would produce some of the world’s most expensive crude, no longer make economic sense. The recent spate of project cancellations by global oil giants – Total’s Joslyn mine, Shell’s at Pierre River, and Statoil’s Corner oil sands venture – is only the beginning. As oil prices grind lower, we can expect to hear about tens of billions of dollars of proposed spending that will be cancelled or indefinitely postponed. Not long ago, the grand vision for the oil sands saw production doubling over the next 20 years. Now that dream is in the rear-view mirror. Rather than expanding production, the industry’s new economic imperative will be attempting to cut costs in a bid to maintain current output. With the exception of oil sands players themselves, no one will feel those project cancellations more acutely than new Alberta Premier Jim Prentice. His province’s budget is beholden to the gusher of bitumen royalties that will no longer be accruing as planned. He could choose to stay the course on spending, as former Premier Don Getty did when oil prices plunged in the 1980s, in hopes that a price recovery will materialize. That option, as Getty discovered, would soon see Alberta’s budget surplus morph into spiralling deficits. The province’s balance sheet wasn’t cleaned up until the axe-wielding Ralph Klein took over. In his first term, Klein slashed spending on social services by 30 per cent, cut the education budget by 16 per cent and lowered health care expenditures by nearly 20 per cent. Of course, falling oil prices are a concern for much more than just Alberta’s budget position. Real estate values also face more risk, particularly downtown Calgary office space. For oil sands operators, staying alive in a low price environment won’t just mean cancelling expansion plans and cutting jobs in the field. Head office positions are also destined for the chopping block, which is bad news for the shiny new towers going up in Calgary’s commercial core. If plunging oil prices are writing a boom-to-bust story in provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, the narrative will be much different in other parts of the country. Ontario’s long-depressed economy is already beginning to find a second wind, recently leading the country in economic growth. And the engine is just beginning to rev up. As the largest oil-consuming province in the country, lower oil prices put more money back into the pockets of Ontarians, while also juicing the buying power of its most important trading partner. Ontario’s trade leverage with the U.S. is set to become even more meaningful as the Canadian dollar continues to slide along with the country’s rapidly fading oil prospects. Just as the oil sands boom turned Canada’s currency into a petrodollar, pushing it above parity with the greenback, the loonie is already tumbling in the wake of lower oil prices. And it shouldn’t expect any help from the Bank of Canada, which continues to signal that it’s willing to live with a much lower exchange rate in the face of a strengthening U.S. dollar. A loonie at 75 cents means GM and Ford may once again consider Ontario an attractive place to make cars and trucks. Even if they don’t, you can bet others will. With the loonie’s value falling to three quarters of where it was only a few years ago, we’ll start seeing Ontario, as well as other regions of the country, start to regain some of the hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs that were lost in the last decade amid a severely overvalued currency. For the Canadian economy as a whole, much is about to change, while much will also remain the same. Once again, oil will largely define the fault lines that separate the haves from the have-nots (or at least the growing from the stagnating). But at $40 oil, it’s the consuming provinces that will drive economic growth. Rather than oil flowing east through new pipelines, jobs and investment will be heading in that direction instead. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/how-40-oil-would-impact-canadas-provinces/article22288570/

Je ne sais pas d'où vient cette carte, mais c'est quand même intéressant.

Incroyable, c'est une première de mon vécu. *** Transferts fédéraux: l'Ontario recevra plus que le Québec 15-12-2014 | 10h38 Dernière mise à jour: 15-12-2014 | 12h12 AGENCE QMI OTTAWA - C'est la province de l'Ontario qui bénéficiera le plus des largesses du gouvernement fédéral dans la prochaine année fiscale. Le ministère fédéral des Finances, Joe Oliver, a rendu publics les chiffres des transferts fédéraux aux provinces et aux territoires qui sont prévus en 2015-2016 en matière de santé et de programmes sociaux, ainsi que pour la péréquation. Le soutien financier du gouvernement fédéral au Québec atteindra 20,36 milliards $ en 2015-2016, mais l'Ontario recevra la part du lion avec 20,44 milliards $. Au total, en 2015-2016, Ottawa versera aux 10 provinces et aux trois territoires canadiens un montant de 67,9 milliards $, ce qui représente une somme de 1890 $ par habitant. Selon le ministre des Finances fédéral, Joe Oliver, ces transferts du gouvernement fédéral donnent aux provinces et aux territoires la capacité de fournir des services publics de «grande qualité». Le ministre Oliver a par ailleurs fortement suggéré aux provinces de s'inspirer de son gouvernement est de faire les efforts nécessaires pour diminuer les impôts et les dépenses. Le ministre Leitao en veut davantage Même si la province recevra du fédéral une somme record de 9,5 milliards $ en paiement de péréquation pour 2015-2016, Québec estime qu'Ottawa peut en faire plus en matière de santé et d'infrastructure. C'est ce qu'a indiqué le ministre des Finances du Québec, Carlos Leitão, à l'entrée d'une rencontre réunissant ses homologues provinciaux et fédéral à Ottawa lundi. «Pour la péréquation c'est un montant record, mais il y en a d'autres transferts fédéraux et en infrastructure, par exemple, nous pensons qu'il y a de la place pour augmenter ces transferts-là. Et il y a toute la question des transferts en santé», a mentionné le ministre Leitao. Le dossier des infrastructures constitue une des priorités que M. Leitão souhaite amener à la table des discussions. Il a indiqué que le Québec dépensera 90 milliards $ sur dix ans dans ses infrastructures, alors que le fédéral prévoit investir 70 milliards $ à l'échelle du pays au cours de cette période. Il invite Ottawa à délier davantage les cordons de la bourse dans ce domaine, faisant valoir que dans le cycle économique actuel, les dépenses en infrastructure constituent «le meilleur moyen d'accélérer la croissance». -Avec Dominique La Haye

http://www.ledevoir.com/economie/actualites-economiques/423699/perspectives-seul-avec-son-petrole PERSPECTIVES Seul avec son pétrole 13 novembre 2014 |Gérard Bérubé | Actualités économiques Le gouvernement fédéral est rattrapé par son obsession pétrolière. Il doit aujourd’hui composer avec une chute importante des cours et un accord sino-américain sur le climat l’isolant dans son aveuglement bitumineux. La mise à jour économique faite mercredi par le ministre des Finances Joe Oliver ramène à l’avant-scène ce déséquilibre fiscal avec des provinces qui, comme c’est le cas au Québec, peinent à dénicher les revenus salvateurs. Elle réveille également cette blessure, issue du « mal hollandais », ayant longtemps imposé aux provinces manufacturières le lourd tribut au développement des sables bitumineux dans l’Ouest. Pourtant, ils étaient nombreux et incessants ces appels dirigés au gouvernement Harper l’exhortant à tenir compte des « risques bitumineux » dans ses choix politiques. L’industrie pétrolière et gazière étant de nature spéculative et les cours, hautement volatils, le gouvernement fédéral a été plus d’une fois convié à bien mesurer l’ampleur des distorsions et la précarité d’une ruée des cours de l’or noir pouvant rapidement se transformer en bulle pétrolière. Au sommet d’avant la récession à 147,50 $US le baril, la coûteuse exploitation des sables bitumineux était financièrement rentable. À 95 $US, soit le cours d’équilibre retenu dans les divers scénarios, l’exploitation du pétrole de l’Ouest pouvait se poursuivre, mais au prix d’un contrôle rigoureux des coûts. Le cours de référence se situe désormais à 77 $US, son plus bas en trois ans. Il faut le rappeler. Nous sommes passés d’une pénurie appréhendée à un choc de l’offre en l’espace de six ans. Si la prophétie du « peak » hantait le marché pétrolier en 2007, les grandes agences ont annoncé que la grande révolution énergétique devient celle du schiste. Avec, aux premières loges, les États-Unis se hissant au premier rang des producteurs mondiaux. Les hydrocarbures non conventionnels ont littéralement changé la donne. Illusion bitumineuse Dans sa mise à jour économique, le ministre fédéral des Finances nous confirme donc que le gouvernement fédéral est revenu à l’ère des surplus budgétaires. Mais quant aux externalités de l’illusion bitumineuse… On le sait, le redressement des finances publiques fédérales s’est fait largement sur le dos des provinces. Réforme de l’assurance-emploi et de la Sécurité de la vieillesse, plafonnement des transferts en santé et en péréquation, et incursion dans le programme de formation de la main-d’oeuvre ont été autant d’initiatives ayant contribué au retour du déséquilibre fiscal. On oublie toutefois que s’ajoute ce clivage Est-Ouest, manufacturiers contre pétrolières, sans autre compensation, adoucisseur ou mécanisme de redistribution de la rente pétrolière, grossi par la fièvre fédérale des sables bitumineux. Le syndrome hollandais a été bien présent. Ce lien entre la flambée des cours pétroliers, la hausse du dollar canadien et le déclin du secteur manufacturier fut démontré dans nombre d’études. Selon l’opposition néodémocrate, près de 500 000 emplois manufacturiers, concentrés essentiellement dans les provinces de l’Ontario et du Québec, auraient été sacrifiés sur l’autel du boom pétrolier dans l’Ouest ayant poussé le dollar canadien à sa parité avec le dollar américain. Or cela, c’est du passé. Aujourd’hui, le gouvernement Harper est invité à sortir de son engouement pétrolier aveugle. La manne n’est plus ce qu’elle était, les revenus du fédéral étant désormais amputés par la chute des cours pétroliers. Il n’a également plus l’excuse de l’inaction des autres grands pollueurs de la planète. Les engagements de la Chine et des États-Unis à réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre imposent un nouveau leadership mondial dans la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique. Certes, cet accord est surtout politique et les cibles retenues se veulent minimalistes. Mais s’y greffent les engagements récents de l’Europe. Les projecteurs sont désormais braqués sur des pays qui, comme le Canada — qualifié de plus grand émetteur de GES par habitant parmi les pays industrialisés —, ratent systématiquement leur cible. Le gouvernement fédéral peut toutefois se consoler. Le Conference Board a prédit que l’intensification de l’activité économique américaine et la dépréciation du huard appellent le secteur manufacturier à redevenir le principal moteur de la croissance de l’économie canadienne.

Read more: http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/alberta-s-stantec-to-expand-quebec-presence-with-dessau-deal-1.2022066#ixzz3EG23v4en

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/montreal/Number+Quebecers+leaving+province+rise/9360879/story.html BY MARIAN SCOTT, THE GAZETTE JANUARY 7, 2014 8:05 PM A total of 28,439 people moved from Quebec to another province from January to September 2013. In most cases, Quebec’s loss was Ontario’s gain, with two out of three ex-Quebecers moving to Ontario. Photograph by: Peter Redman , National Post MONTREAL - The number of Quebecers heading down the 401 is on the rise, partial statistics for 2013 suggest. Departures from Quebec to other provinces rose to their highest level this century in the first nine months of 2013, according to the Canadian Institute for Identities and Migration. Statistics are not available yet for the final three months of the year. A total of 28,439 people moved from Quebec to another province from January to September 2013 — the highest number of departures for that period in any year since 2000. In most cases, Quebec’s loss was Ontario’s gain, with two out of three ex-Quebecers moving to Ontario, one in four to Alberta and just under one in ten to British Columbia, according to quarterly demographic estimates released by Statistics Canada in December. Quebec had a net loss of 11,887 residents due to interprovincial migration (departures minus arrivals) in the 12 months from October 2012 to September 2013, compared to a loss of 7,700 people in the corresponding period of 2011-12 and a loss of 4,394 in 2010-11. The rise in departures corresponds with the election of the Parti Québécois in September 2012 — but there is no evidence the political situation is a contributing factor, said Jack Jedwab, the institute’s executive vice-president.“It’s too early to say,” he said. “I would argue it’s more about our economy,” Jedwab said. “These numbers have a very recessionary look to them, at a time when we’re not in a recession.” Jedwab said the loss of residents sounds a warning signal. “Significant population losses have a negative effect on our economy,” he said. The rise in out-migration is not related to the divisive debate over the PQ government’s proposed charter of values, Jedwab said, since the departures occurred before the charter was unveiled. A National Assembly committee will commence hearings on the charter Jan. 14. But Jedwab said if the trend continues, the hypothesis that political angst is spurring departures would deserve a second look. “If it persists into the next quarter, we’ve got to start thinking non-economic considerations are at work here,” he said. The PQ government’s focus on identity issues has decreased the comfort level of some members of cultural minorities, particularly the values charter, which proposes to bar all public sector workers from wearing religious garb like the Muslim head scarf, Jewish skullcap or Sikh turban. In September, an Ontario hospital published recruitment ads aimed to capitalize on the controversy. A photo of a female health worker wearing a hijab (head scarf) bore the caption: “We don’t care what’s on your head. We care what’s in it.” Aaron Lazarus, director of communications at Lakeridge Health in Bowmanville, Ont., east of Toronto, said the hospital received several job applications from doctors, nurses and other health professionals from Quebec in response to the ads. But Michel Leblanc, president and CEO of the Montreal Board of Trade, warned against jumping to the conclusion that the current political climate could be causing people to leave Quebec. “What is worrisome is that we have a net loss of residents every year,” Leblanc said. “People have a tendency to migrate not only to places with better weather, but also to places where the economy is performing better,” he said. Leblanc said that while the recent increase in departures is cause for concern, it is much smaller than the massive exodus of anglophones from Quebec in the 1970s and ’80s. He called on the government to improve the integration of immigrants into the workforce and to lower taxation to retain residents. Statistics Canada’s quarterly demographic estimates showed Alberta — with a population of 4,060,700 in October 2013 — continues to lead the provinces in population growth, adding 137,703 new residents from October 2012 to September 2013, of whom 49,031 moved there from elsewhere in Canada. Ontario (population 13,585,900) had slower population growth, gaining 128,442 new residents from October 2012 to September 2013. Quebec, numbering 8,174,500 residents, added 67,385 new residents from October 2012 to September 2013, with immigration and the natural increase of the population compensating for out-migration. Previous studies have shown that about two-thirds of Quebec residents who move to other provinces are allophones — people whose first language is neither French nor English. mascot@montrealgazette.com

Read more: http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/Whole+Foods+grocery+chain+seeks+locations+Montreal/8423890/story.html#ixzz2UBTI7njo I would so love to see them here. One could only hope, if they do open Loblaws (now being rebranded as Provigo) and Metro will finally serve a better assortment of warm meals.

Le nombre de sièges sociaux diminue partout au pays Publié le 26 mars 2013 à 10h34 | Mis à jour à 10h34 Le Canada a perdu 22 sièges sociaux d'entreprises entre 2010 et 2011, selon Statistique Canada, le nombre total étant passé de 2865 à 2843. La perte a été ressentie également dans les quatre provinces qui comptent le plus de sièges sociaux soit, dans l'ordre, l'Ontario (-40%), le Québec (-20,3%), l'Alberta (-14,2%) et la Colombie-Britannique (-11,5%). La répartition du recul a fait en sorte que la proportion de sièges sociaux que compte chaque province est demeuré inchangé. En chiffres absolus, le Québec a perdu quatre sièges sociaux entre 2010 et 2011, l'Ontario neuf, l'Alberta sept et la Colombie-Britannique deux. En contrepartie, les sièges sociaux qui restent semblent avoir une certaine vigueur puisque le nombre total d'employés de sièges sociaux s'est légèrement accru dans toutes les provinces, sauf l'Ontario. Plus de la moitié des sièges sociaux canadiens étaient liés à des entreprises oeuvrant dans trois secteurs, soit le commerce de détail (20,2%), la fabrication (18,6%) et le commerce de gros (13,1%). Sans surprise, l'Alberta regroupe 85,3 pour cent des sièges sociaux liés au secteur du pétrole, surtout à Calgary. http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/canada/201303/26/01-4634872-le-nombre-de-sieges-sociaux-diminue-partout-au-pays.php

http://lapresseaffaires.cyberpresse.ca/opinions/chroniques/claude-picher/201106/14/01-4408942-la-province-de-queteux-un-mythe.php

(Courtesy of Canadian Business)

Canadian provinces' budget gaps at 'tipping point'

Quebec vows to fight national securities plan RHEAL SEGUIN Globe and Mail Update September 18, 2008 at 4:11 PM EDT For the second consecutive day, the Quebec government waded into the federal election campaign against Conservative policies, lashing-out today at the Harper government's proposal to create a national securities commission. Quebec Finance Minister Monique Jérôme-Forget warned that in the event of a majority Conservative government in Ottawa bent on creating a national securities commission, all provinces and territories except Ontario will fight the decision right-up to the Supreme Court of Canada. The confrontation, she predicted, would disrupt markets and create havoc for investors. “The protection of investors is a provincial jurisdiction,” she said. “I suspect they (a Harper government) are going to come-up with legislation. They are going to implement such a securities commission. We are going to appeal. We're going to go as high as the Supreme Court. There's going to be disruption in the market.” The Minister added that Canada's financial leaders underestimate the impact if Ottawa moves to unilaterally impose changes without provincial consent. Ontario remained the only province to support the federal initiative. All the others propose to harmonize regulations through what they call a “passport” system, where companies can file a prospectus for approval in one province or territory and have it automatically accepted by all the others. There are currently 13 provincial and territorial securities commission. She predicts that a national securities commission will only create another layer of bureaucracy by adding a 14th commission, creating confusion for investors. “People won't know where to go. The market will want to know who's in charge. There will be a court challenge right up to the Supreme Court because the provinces argue is their jurisdiction,” Ms. Jérôme-Forget said. “Quebec isn't alone. You have British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, the Atlantic provinces. They are all on side.” Improvements to the current system are needed, she added, such as finding ways to accommodate restrictions imposed by the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. In the past, that has created obstacles for prosecutors who want to use confidential information held by regulator bodies in pursuing criminal cases such as fraud. “We don't want to change the Charter but we have to find ways to share the information,” she said. Backed by two international studies, the Minister argued that Canada's current securities regulations are among the best in the world and that there was no need to change the system. The comments came at the conclusion of a federal-provincial meeting of ministers responsible for their respective securities commissions. Her charge against the Harper government's intrusion in a provincial jurisdiction comes on the heels of severe criticism by Quebec this week against other Conservative policies. On Wednesday, Cultural and Communications Minister Christine St-Pierre scoffed at federal Heritage Minister Josée Verner's suggestion that if Quebec wanted more funding for culture it should use its own money. “We've increased budgets (for culture) by 25 per cent. We're already doing our share,” Ms. St-Pierre said in referring to the $45-million in federal cutback in programs including those aimed at promoting Canadian and Quebec culture abroad. The cutbacks sparked widespread criticism from Quebec's cultural community including world renowned theatre artist Robert Lepage, who said the Harper government was discouraging home grown artists from seeking prominence abroad by locking them into a “cultural prison.” Ms. Jérôme-Forget also challenged the Conservative party's claim that it has fixed the fiscal imbalance between Ottawa and the provinces, especially after signing a multi-billion agreement for infrastructure projects. “Obviously for me it's not enough. Post-education (money) for all provinces has not been settled. ” Ms Jérôme-Forget said. “There was a great move done by Mr. Harper….but for post secondary education there is still room to manoeuvre.” Despite mounting tensions over a growing number of issues, the Quebec government stopped short of calling Mr. Harper's vision of open federalism a failure. “The objective of federalism isn't to say: ‘If I don't get everything, I'll slam the door.' You have to build alliances and on occasion force your position and try to influence others. It's normal to have differences,” she said.

http://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100505/mtl_building_100505/20100505/?hub=MontrealHome Surprise surprise.

Vers une seule commission canadienne... Mise à jour le lundi 12 janvier 2009 à 8 h 19 Les marchés financiers canadiens sont régis par 13 agences provinciales et territoriales, mais un seul organisme national pourrait bientôt prendre le relais. Selon le quotidien The Globe and Mail, des experts recommandent au ministre des Finances Jim Flaherty de créer une seule commission des valeurs mobilières au Canada. Tom Hockin, le président du Groupe d'experts sur la réglementation des valeurs mobilières, publiera et expliquera ses conclusions lundi après-midi, à Vancouver. Le Groupe d'experts a été mis sur pied par le ministre Flaherty il y a près d'un an. Le mandat des experts est de proposer des mesures pour améliorer la réglementation des valeurs mobilières au Canada. Au mois de novembre, le gouvernement minoritaire du conservateur Stephen Harper réaffirmait son intention de s'engager dans la voie d'une seule commission, tout en laissant aux provinces opposées au projet la possibilité de s'y soustraire. Le Québec et l'Alberta font partie des opposants tandis que l'Ontario défend depuis longtemps l'idée d'un organisme unique. Le Globe and Mail rapporte que les experts proposeront au ministre Flaherty de suggérer aux provinces d'adhérer volontairement à la nouvelle instance nationale. Si elles refusent, le ministre aura la possibilité d'offrir aux entreprises d'adhérer à la réglementation nationale. Le fédéral pourrait aussi contester devant les tribunaux l'entêtement des provinces à maintenir en force leur réglementation sur les valeurs mobilières. Les conclusions du Groupe risquent fort d'irriter certaines provinces qui tiennent à leurs pouvoirs en matière réglementaire. La ministre des Finances du Québec Monique Jérôme-Forget croit qu'en tentant d'enlever ce pouvoir aux provinces à la faveur d'une seule commission des valeurs mobilières au Canada, le gouvernement Harper remettrait en question le fédéralisme d'ouverture qu'il prône depuis son arrivée au pouvoir. Le premier ministre Stephen Harper a convoqué ses homologues des provinces et territoires à une rencontre le 16 janvier, à Ottawa. La réglementation des marchés financiers fait partie de l'ordre du jour des discussions, tout comme l'accélération des investissements en infrastructure, l'élimination des barrières au commerce interprovincial et le développement des communautés autochtones. Tom Hockin est un ancien ministre d'État aux Finances et ex-président de l'Institut des fonds d'investissement du Canada. Parmi les six autres membres du Groupe figure Denis Desautels, ancien vérificateur général du Canada.

Publié le 12 janvier 2010 à 05h00 | Mis à jour à 05h00 Péréquation: le portrait a changé Joël-Denis Bellavance La Presse (Ottawa) Longtemps considéré comme la locomotive économique du pays, l'Ontario souffre plus que jamais. À un point tel que la province recevra un paiement de péréquation trois fois plus élevé en 2010-2011, un signe qu'elle a maintenant besoin de l'aide financière des autres régions du pays pour pouvoir se payer des services publics comparables. L'Ontario a empoché des paiements de péréquation pour la première fois de son histoire en 2009-2010, soit 347 millions de dollars. En 2010-2011, ces paiements auront presque triplé pour atteindre 972 millions de dollars, a appris La Presse lundi. Le ministre des Finances, Jim Flaherty, a confirmé à ses homologues des provinces les sommes qu'Ottawa compte leur verser au cours du prochain exercice financier lors de la conférence des ministres des Finances qui a eu lieu à Whitehorse à la mi-décembre, a indiqué lundi Jack Aubry, porte-parole du ministère des Finances. En tout, les paiements de péréquation atteindront 14,4 milliards de dollars en 2010-2011. Comme c'est le cas depuis plusieurs années, le Québec obtiendra la part du lion de cette somme, soit 8,5 milliards de dollars - environ 200 millions de dollars de plus que lors du dernier exercice financier. Terre-Neuve, qui a longtemps été considérée comme une province pauvre au pays, ne touche plus de paiement de péréquation depuis l'an dernier, en raison de la hausse de ses revenus découlant de l'exploitation des réserves de pétrole du projet Hibernia. En 2007-2009, la province de Danny Williams avait touché 477 millions de dollars. En somme, l'Ontario a dorénavant remplacé Terre-Neuve dans la liste des six provinces les plus pauvres de la fédération canadienne. Les autres provinces qui reçoivent un coup de pouce financier d'Ottawa pour pouvoir s'offrir des services publics comparables à un taux d'imposition comparable aux autres régions sont le Manitoba (1,8 milliard), le Nouveau-Brunswick (1,581 milliard), la Nouvelle-Écosse (1,110 milliard) et l'Île-du-Prince-Édouard (330 millions). La Saskatchewan, l'Alberta et la Colombie-Britannique font partie du club des provinces plus riches avec Terre-Neuve. La faute au dollar «L'Ontario souffre énormément en ce moment. Et il souffre depuis très longtemps», a affirmé lundi Serge Coulombe, professeur de science économique à l'Université d'Ottawa qui s'est longuement penché sur la situation économique de cette province. Il explique que le boom des ressources naturelles dans l'Ouest a contribué à la hausse de la valeur du dollar canadien, ce qui a nui considérablement au secteur manufacturier qui exporte vers les États-Unis. «L'Ontario a été énormément touché par l'appréciation du dollar canadien. La forte croissance économique que nous avons eue au Canada entre 2002 et 2008 s'est faite au détriment de l'Ontario. Alors, quand la récession est arrivée en 2008, l'Ontario était déjà lourdement touché à cause de la force du dollar», a expliqué M. Coulombe. Il affirme que l'Ontario a perdu quelque 250 000 emplois dans le secteur manufacturier entre 2002 et 2008, soit avant même le début de la récession. Et l'un des secteurs qui ont été durement touchés est celui de l'automobile, concentré en Ontario. Déficit record En octobre, le ministre des Finances de l'Ontario, Dwight Duncan, a revu à la hausse le déficit de l'Ontario - un manque à gagner record de 24,7 milliards en 2009-2010. La cause : une chute brutale des revenus provenant des impôts des sociétés, privant le Trésor ontarien de 5,8 milliards de dollars. Huit mois auparavant, M. Duncan avait estimé le déficit à 14 milliards de dollars. «L'Ontario était la province canadienne qui comptait le plus sur le secteur manufacturier. En plus, elle est la province canadienne la plus tournée vers les États-Unis pour ses exportations. L'Ontario n'est donc plus la locomotive du développement économique du pays depuis 2002», a dit M. Coulombe. La crise qui frappe l'Ontario est telle que le gouvernement Harper a décidé de mettre en place l'an dernier une agence de diversification de l'économie du sud de la province. Cette agence, créée à la suite du dernier budget, dispose d'un milliard de dollars sur cinq ans pour soutenir cette région durement frappée par la crise économique. L'économiste en chef de la Banque Toronto Dominion, Don Drummond, avait aussi prédit, dans un rapport publié en 2008, que l'Ontario perdrait sous peu son statut de province toute-puissante du pays. «L'Ontario n'est plus le roi tout puissant de l'économie», avait affirmé M. Drummond dans ce rapport qui avait fait beaucoup de bruit. L'an dernier, le premier ministre de l'Ontario, Dalton McGuinty, cachait mal sa gêne en confirmant que sa province recevrait des paiements de péréquation pour la première fois de son histoire.

Quebec adopts California car emissions standards Rules will gradually lower greenhouse gas emission ceiling for cars Last Updated: Tuesday, December 29, 2009 | 10:17 PM ET Quebec is adopting California's stringent auto-emissions standards next month, in a move to tackle the province's polluting transport sector. When the new emissions standards take effect Jan. 14, Quebec will become the first Canadian province to follow California's lead in reducing greenhouse gases with cleaner light vehicles. The standards will impose increasingly strict limits on maximum greenhouse gas emissions for light vehicles manufactured between 2010 and 2016, and sold in Quebec. By 2016, provincial standards will require light vehicles to produce no more than 127 grams of greenhouse gas per kilometre. New emissions standards for light vehicles in Quebec are modelled after California's stricter regulations.New emissions standards for light vehicles in Quebec are modelled after California's stricter regulations. (Canadian Press)The new rules come after two years of consultation on California's controversial standards, said Line Beauchamp, the province's environment minister. California's emissions program is "really interesting because it is accompanied by a system of penalties, but especially, a system of rewards" for cleaner cars, Beauchamp said in French at a news conference in Montreal on Tuesday. The emission caps apply to a manufacturer's total vehicle fleet, which means companies that manage to come under the limit can either bank their credits, or sell them to others, Beauchamp explained. When the West Coast state first introduced its standards in 2004, it was beset by judicial challenges from the auto industry, a reaction Quebec noted with interest, the environment minister said. But with the advent of Barack Obama as president, and a slow spread of California's standards to other states, Quebec is ready to take the plunge for stricter standards "with much pride," Beauchamp said. The minister noted that several states neighbouring Quebec are among those that have followed California's lead, including Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Connecticut. The Obama administration has also signalled its intent to adopt equivalent standards for all of the United States by 2012. In Quebec, the transport sector generates about 40 per cent of the province's greenhouse gases, half of which is caused by light vehicles.

Un très bon article du G&M ce matin sur la "résilience" de l'économie québécoise: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/few-bumps-in-la-belle-provinces-recession-ride/article1240146/ Few bumps in la belle province's recession ride At Sandoz Canada Inc. in Boucherville, Que., sales are rising and the work force is growing. The generic pharmaceutical producer's growth is more subdued than usual, to be sure. But this isn't the picture of a company struggling through a recession. And so goes Quebec, where the global slump has caused discomfort but not intense pain. The province's economy is contracting, but at nowhere near the pace of devastation as in other parts of Canada. This milder recession is seen in the job market, where employment has fallen just 0.7 per cent in the past year. And in the real estate market, where prices are stable. And at Sandoz, where revenue has climbed more than 10 per cent in the past year. “We've seen, over all, still some growth. And we've done some limited hiring,” said Pierre Fréchette, chief executive officer of the company, which opened a new factory in Boucherville last year. “We've been pretty sheltered from the situation outside of Canada, and outside Quebec.” For the country's second most populous province, it could have been a lot worse, even though the global crisis has struck hard at manufacturing and exports – two areas core to Quebec's economy. Thanks to export diversification, a real estate market that didn't overheat and sheer luck, the province that makes up 20 per cent of Canada's economic heft has fared much better than in past recessions. “The main industries of Quebec are not in restructuring mode. This is just a cyclical downturn,” said Sébastien Lavoie, economist at Laurentian Bank of Canada in Montreal. The most obvious example of the mild nature of the recession in Quebec is in the labour market. The 0.7-per-cent drop in employment in the past year compares with a 1.8-per-cent contraction nationally, and much larger declines in the other major provinces. Compared with previous recessions, Quebec workers have had it easy this time. The 1990s recession cut the provincial work force by 2.9 per cent, while the 1980s recession destroyed 7.4 per cent of jobs. Quebec's unemployment rate, now 8.8 per cent, is slightly above the national average (8.6 per cent), which is usual. But it is significantly below Ontario's 9.6 per cent. And most of Ontario's job losses have been full-time positions, while Quebec's are mainly part-time. Overall growth in Quebec contracted sharply in the first quarter, but, again, not as sharply as the country as a whole, nor as Ontario in particular. Indeed, Quebec's growth has outpaced Ontario since 2006 – a trend that is expected to persist into next year, and something that has not happened in decades. While Ontario and Quebec are often lumped together and characterized, fairly, as Canada's manufacturing heartland, the structure of Quebec's manufacturing sector has changed dramatically since the previous recession, analysts say. “Quebec has gone through a transformation,” said John Baldwin, director of the economic analysis division at Statistics Canada and one of Canada's top authorities on productivity. Free trade with the United States encouraged all of North America to shift from the manufacturing of non-durable goods to durable goods, to take advantage of economies of scale and growing global markets, according to a new paper by Mr. Baldwin. But Ontario's manufacturing and exports had always been concentrated in durable manufacturing – steel, cars, machinery and equipment. Quebec, on the other hand, was the centre of non-durable manufacturing for Canada, with its textiles and shoes. During the 1990s and especially in the past decade, Mr. Baldwin said, Quebec switched over, but expanded into areas where Ontario was not as dominant – aerospace and pharmaceuticals. Quebec had a painful adjustment, scaling back its textile sector and shutting down large parts of its pulp and paper industry in the past decade. But that restructuring is largely over, economists say. In this recession, like recessions of the past, manufacturing has suffered more than other sectors. But since Quebec does not have Ontario's dependence on U.S. consumption of cars, and is not as dependent on energy exports as the West, it has not been as vulnerable. About a third of Quebec's gross domestic product comes from exports, and 75 per cent of those exports go to the United States. But the U.S. market is far more important for Ontario because 42 per cent of the province's GDP comes from exports, and 84 per cent of its exports are sold to Americans. Sales of cars, mainly from Ontario, are down about 40 per cent so far this year. Quebec's aerospace sector has faltered too, recently, but not to the same extent. “We are not in the same situation as the auto sector,” said Joëlle Noreau, senior economist at Desjardins Group. But Quebec's recession is mild not simply because it avoided the crisis in the auto sector. It's also because export volumes have surged in other areas, especially in the pharmaceutical industry, rising 80 per cent so far this year from 2008. Most of that growth comes from generic drug companies taking advantage of expiring patents – a cycle that is not at all related to the global crisis, said Mr. Fréchette at Sandoz. “Obviously, we see pressure on our margins,” he said in an interview. “But our business is driven by very specific events. In general, the prospects are good.” While economists say they are tempted to point to clever business strategies and forward-thinking industrial policies as explanations for Quebec's mild recession, they are quick to say plain luck is a major factor, too. “We were blessed,” Ms. Noreau says. As Quebec's roads and bridges fell into disrepair a few years ago, the provincial government responded by investing heavily in infrastructure. Well before the recession started, the government earmarked $42-billion, or 14 per cent of GDP, for a five-year building plan. While other provinces are preparing to spend heavily, too, in a bid to fight off recession, Quebec's plan has already kicked into high gear, she said. Luck is also behind the stability in the housing market, said Marc Pinsonneault, senior economist at National Bank Financial. The prerecession runup in house prices was not nearly as notable in Quebec as in the West and Ontario, he said, so there was no bubble that needed bursting. Stable housing prices have meant that the net worth of many Quebeckers has not plunged as much as elsewhere, a trend that has added strength to the domestic side of the province's economy, Mr. Pinsonneault added. There are, of course, real fears that Quebec's luck could run out. The aerospace sector has stumbled in the past couple of months, and orders are drying up. Aerospace accounts for about a quarter of the province's exports, but sales typically respond to turns in the economy with an 18-month lag, said Jean-Michel Laurin, economist at the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters. Already, Bell Helicopter, a division of U.S.-based Textron Inc., announced 150 layoffs in July at its Montreal-area plant, linked to sagging demand for its products. In the refinery sector, Mr. Laurin adds, Royal Dutch Shell has warned that it could shut down its Montreal refinery that employs 550 people. The pharmaceutical industry will no doubt come under pressure as indebted governments around the world are pressured to cut health care costs in the coming years, to get their deficits under control. And the strong Canadian dollar is adding yet another burden to exporters' lists of problems, Mr. Laurin said. “Regardless of where you go in Quebec or Ontario, we're all very dependent on the U.S.”

Le taux de chômage a augmenté de 0,2 % en juin au Canada, pour atteindre 8,6 %. L'emploi est resté pratiquement inchangé dans toutes les provinces, sauf à Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador, où il a augmenté. Pour en lire plus...

L'Institut Fraser calcule que le Québec est l'une des trois dernières provinces à atteindre la journée d'affranchissement de l'impôt, avant celle de la Saskatchewan et de Terre-Neuve-et-Labrador. Pour en lire plus...

Les associations de pêcheurs des provinces de l'Atlantique et de la Gaspésie réclament une rencontre d'urgence avec les ministres fédéral et provinciaux pour trouver des solutions à la crise qui secoue l'industrie. Pour en lire plus...

Publié le 27 avril 2009 à 05h00 | Mis à jour à 05h00 Budget 2008 de la fête du Canada: 85% au Québec Malorie Beauchemin La Presse (Ottawa) Tant sous les conservateurs que sous les libéraux, le Québec continue d'être inondé d'argent pour célébrer la fête du Canada. L'an dernier, c'est 3,2 millions de dollars qui ont été accordés à la Belle Province par Patrimoine Canada pour financer le comité Le Canada en fête, responsable des festivités, selon des documents obtenus grâce à la loi d'accès à l'information. Or, le budget total du Ministère pour tous les comités des 10 provinces et trois territoires s'élève à 3,77 millions. L'Ontario, en comparaison, a reçu 100 000$ de Patrimoine Canada pour son comité Le Canada en fête, l'Alberta, 50 000$, le Yukon, 20000$ et l'ensemble des régions de l'Atlantique, un total de 196 000$. Le Québec retire donc à lui seul 85% de l'enveloppe, soulevant la grogne, de nouveau, des souverainistes. «C'est 85% qui va au Québec, mais c'est pour 100% de propagande», estime Carole Lavallée, porte-parole du Bloc québécois sur les enjeux touchant le ministère du Patrimoine canadien. «Normalement le Québec a de la difficulté à avoir sa juste part dans les différents programmes, ajoute-t-elle. Encore récemment, on le voit concernant l'harmonisation des taxes, le Québec n'a pas sa part, on réclame des milliards au fédéral. Le seul moment où on a plus que notre part, une part injuste, c'est quand ils veulent fêter le Canada.» À Patrimoine Canada, on explique que le Québec bénéficie de la contribution la plus élevée parce que le comité «organise des activités dans 29 villes importantes d'un bout à l'autre de la province, en plus d'accorder des subventions et des contributions pour des célébrations communautaires», indique le document obtenu par La Presse. D'autres événements Au bureau du ministre du Patrimoine, James Moore, on rappelle par ailleurs que le comité Le Canada en fête au Québec contribue aussi au financement des célébrations entourant d'autres événements, dont la Saint-Jean-Baptiste, le 24 juin, et la Journée nationale des Autochtones, le 21 juin. «C'est la seule province où ça fonctionne de cette façon», souligne Deirdra McCraken, porte-parole du ministre. Pour le Bloc québécois, l'enjeu revient continuellement, peu importe le gouvernement en place. «Les conservateurs et les libéraux, sur le plan de la propagande fédéraliste, sont pas mal à égalité. Il n'y a pas de différence, soutient Carole Lavallée. Ils essaient de nous faire avaler le drapeau du Canada de force dans la gorge comme on gave des oies. Ils doivent bien s'apercevoir que ça ne fonctionne pas.» Le gouvernement libéral, en 2005, a réduit le budget total des comités des célébrations du Canada de 4,9 à 3,7 millions, et la contribution attribuée au Québec est passée de 4,5 millions à 3,2 millions, «afin que des fonds puissent être répartis à d'autres provinces et territoires», stipule le document. Mais dans les faits, le budget des autres provinces et territoires n'a été augmenté que de quelques milliers de dollars, selon les chiffres de Patrimoine Canada. Le budget pour les fêtes de cet été est actuellement en cours d'approbation, note-t-on au Ministère. Avec la collaboration de William Leclerc

Ontario in decline: From Canada's economic engine to clunker Can Dalton McGuinty see the light and reverse the decay with his forthcoming budget? By Paul Vieira, Financial Post March 23, 2009 A month before Dalton McGuinty, the Liberal Ontario Premier, hit the election trail in the fall of 2007 to seek a second mandate, an ominous warning sign of the province's crumbling economic stature emerged that should have provided fodder for the campaign. An analysis from leading Bay Street economist Dale Orr said Ontarians' standard of living had plummeted -- from a peak of 15% above the Canadian average in the mid-1980s to just more than 5%. Accompanying the analysis was a warning of further erosion by 2010. Alas, the eye-opening report hardly generated buzz during the election campaign. Instead, most of the talk was about a Conservative proposal to provide government funding for faith-based schooling. Ontarians didn't warm to the idea and re-elected Mr. McGuinty's Liberals with another majority. Reflecting today on that report, Mr. Orr said his nightmare scenario for Ontario has unfolded as envisaged. If anything, the situation in the province may be worse. As the McGuinty government prepares to table its sixth provincial budget on Thursday, it does so knowing the province that was once the country's economic engine is now the clunker of the confederation. While former have-nots such as Saskatchewan post surpluses this fiscal year, Ontario is bleeding red ink--a cumulative two-year deficit of $18-billion. Ontario's dramatic decline comes as no accident. It was decades in the making, based on a combination of mismanaged public finances and the ascent of emerging economies at the expense of high-cost manufacturing. Upon taking office in 2003, Mr. McGuinty moved to pour tens of billions of dollars into improving government services -- health care, education and social programs targeting the downtrodden -- while neglecting the changing economic landscape. To help finance this agenda, he raised corporate taxes and slapped a health-care levy on households. These moves, analysts say, helped cement Ontario as one of the least attractive places for companies to invest. Analysts wonder whether the economic crisis is finally going to force Mr. McGuinty and Dwight Duncan, his Minister of Finance, to make tough choices on spending and undertake the kind of tax reform -- as displayed this week by New Brunswick-- that will help the province attract investment to offset heavy job losses in Ontario. Derek Burleton, senior economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, said Thursday's budget presents a possible turning point for the province. "There is no doubt we are undergoing a period of transformation as some of the industries that have driven healthy gains in living standards are on the decline," said Mr. Burleton, who co-authored a report with TD chief economist Don Drummond last fall that called on the province to embrace a "sweeping" new economic vision. "Given the sizeable deficit the province faces, that will put increasing pressure on the government to prioritize." One of those priorities is for Mr. McGuinty to cease his preferred manner of dealing with difficulties in the industrial heartland -- funneling tens of millions of dollars to the manufacturing sector, particularly automotive, through targeted tax relief or direct subsidies. "What the province should have been doing over the years was to make the province more flexible in attracting new businesses and not diverting resources into declining sectors," said Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C. D. Howe Institute, a Toronto-based think-tank that has been critical of Ontario's tax breaks for struggling sectors such as autos and forest products. "Do you want to steer resources to the sectors where the outlook is positive and growing? Or do you want to divert resources from these stars, which are more likely to generate the long-term employment and wage growth that Ontario is accustomed to?" The manufacturing sector, and its high-paying jobs, used to be the province's crown jewel. But as a component of Ontario's GDP, it has dropped from a peak of 23% in 2000 to roughly 18% on factors such as a richer Canadian dollar, higher energy costs and offshore competition. It is expected to fall further once the dust settles from this crisis. The province was largely able to mask the decline in manufacturing through a combination of a booming housing market, a surge in public sector hiring and a robust financial services sector. The financial crisis, however, has exposed those flaws. For the period starting in 2003, only Quebec and Nova Scotia have produced weaker growth than Ontario. Forecasts suggest Ontario was the only province whose economy shrank last year, and economists say it will record either the worst, or second-worst performance, among provinces this year. Scotia Capital, for instance, has Ontario's economy contracting 2.9% in 2009, and posting meagre growth of 1.4% in 2010, below the expected national average. Of the roughly 295,000 jobs lost in Canada since October, nearly half have come from the province. The result? Unemployment in Ontario, at 8.7%, is now higher than it is the United States (8.1%) and above Quebec's 7.9% jobless rate-- the first time that has happened in three decades. The news is not expected to get any better any time soon. "We believe that the unemployment rate in Canada's largest province should hit 10% by 2010, even if the automobile sector's restructuring plan works," said Sebastian Lavoie, an economist at Laurentian Bank Securities. Further, Mr. Lavoie said wage growth in the province is destined to take a hit. In the past, companies were forced to offer comparable wages and benefits based on what the Canadian Auto Workers would negotiate with the Detroit car makers. But Mr. Lavoie said that will no longer be the case, with CAW accepting salary freezes and making concessions on perks such as cost-of-living-allowance. The financial crisis has just exacerbated a growing trend, said Mary Webb, senior economist at Scotia Capital. Ontario's receipts from foreign-bound exports last year represent an 11.7% drop from a peak of $185.1-billion recorded in 2000. For the same time period, Quebec's receipts fell by just 2.9%. For the rest of Canada, excluding Ontario and Quebec, receipts have surged a whopping 72%. Compounding Ontario's problem is the emergence of big deficit, fuelled in part by shrinking tax revenue and years of escalated program spending. Under Mr. McGuinty, program spending now stands at $23-billion per year more than when he took office in October, 2003, an increase of 36%. In fiscal year, 2007-08, program spending climbed more than 10% to $87.6-billion, compared with a 5.4% increase in tax revenue. Observers note Mr. McGuinty's ascent to power in 2003 can be attributed to a desire for change among Ontarians after years of the hard-nosed, right-leaning Conservative regime that earned scorned for cutting government services. Mr. McGuinty's two terms have been dominated by a push to restore spending on public goods such as education, health care, infrastructure and social services. Analysts say Mr. McGuinty was on the right track to bolster some key building blocks, such as post-secondary education. To help pay for this, Mr. McGuinty raised the corporate tax -- to 14% from 12% --in his first budget. "The balance of [McGuinty's] approach was not quite right," said Jack Mintz, public policy professor at the University of Calgary and renowned tax expert. "The problem was trying to [reinvest in public services] while at the same time trying to maintain a vibrant industrial sector." Mr. Mintz and other analysts say Ontario's tax regime, as currently structured, is suffocating the province's ability to attract investment and rebuild the economy. Last year, Jim Flaherty, the federal Finance Minister, suggested the tax system was making Ontario the "last place" businesses wanted to invest. Mr. Flaherty took lots of heat for that remark, but he was on to something. Mr. Mintz's research indicates the province's marginal effective tax rate on capital, which encompasses all levies slapped on investment in the province, stands at 35%, six points higher than the Canadian average, 29%. Further, the Ontario rate ranks as the ninth-highest in the world, tied with Japan. Despite moves to eliminate capital tax in 2010, and other business tax reductions from the federal government, Ontario's marginal rate is expected to drop only three points to 32% by 2012 -- still higher than all provinces and exceeding the national average. "Ontario will not be successful in retaining existing businesses and attracting new ones if its taxation system is not on sound competitive footing with other provinces and countries," said the TD report by Messrs. Burleton and Drummond. There are signs that Mr. McGuinty is acknowledging the need to change. Despite previous opposition, he said in January the province would take a "long, hard look" at harmonizing its provincial sales tax with the GST. As currently structured, Ontario's sales tax derives almost half of its revenue from taxing business inputs such as productivity-enhancingequipment. Harmonizing with the GST would shift the tax burden to households, but economists argue it would boost business investment and make Ontario more attractive. In a C. D. Howe research paper he released yesterday, Mr. Poschmann said putting an end to the "archaic" sales tax and harmonizing with the GST would move Ontario from a high-tax jurisdiction to a medium-tax jurisdiction by 2012, with the marginal rate on investment falling just over 10 percentage points. A signal toward sales tax harmonization could be contained in Thursday's budget, although observers are hedging their bets given the potential voter backlash. Any further moves on taxation, whether business or personal, may have to wait given the province's monster deficit and an unwillingness to give up further revenue to fund public service initiatives. "Ontario is going to be deeply challenged," Mr. Mintz said, "because it is going to be very hard for the government to do anything when you are so fiscally restrained-- unless it wants to make the deficit even bigger now." Glen Hodgson, senior vice-president and chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada, said the needed tax reductions would not see the light of day until Ontario decides what to do about health-care spending, which is growing at an annual clip of 8% to 10% and is the single biggest expense item in the budget. "This is a catalytic moment for the province," Mr. Hodgson said. "The light bulb has gone on, but it is not burning brightly yet. A lot of people would like to return to the Old World. But I think the Old World is gone -and that's the dilemma Ontario faces." --------- MANITOBA, N.B. SET EXAMPLE: As Ontario attempts to pull itself out of its economic quagmire, it can look to the provinces of Manitoba and New Brunswick for leadership. While the recession is expected to hit every province, Manitoba comes out near the top in most forecasts as one of the country's better performers in 2009. In its outlook, the Conference Board of Canada projects slight growth in the province of 1%, powered by infrastructure projects and tax cuts. Jack Mintz, public policy professor at the University of Calgary, said Manitoba was, along with Ontario, considered a high-tax jurisdiction for business investment. But the government has moved and Manitoba's marginal effective tax rate on investment dropped from 37% in 2007 to 33.8% last year. It is now scheduled to fall to 26.7% by 2012. "It is on the high side, but it will be closer to the national average" in 2012,Mr. Mintz said. "From the point of view of people who need to make investment decisions now, they know these changes are in place over the next several years. So Manitoba looks more appealing." Manitoba also benefits from having one of the most diversified economies in Canada. Roughly 30% of its economy is agriculture, which is more resilient to economic downturns. Further, Manitoba has a diversified manufacturing base with aerospace and buses playing key roles - and, unlike autos, demand for those products continues to be fairly solid. It also has abundant, cheap hydroelectricity. In contrast, questions abound over the reliability of Ontario's power grid, especially in light of the 2003 blackout that blanketed the province and much of the U.S. northeast. Meanwhile, analysts have applauded New Brunswick for taking aggressive steps on taxation this week in an effort to make the province more attractive for both investors and workers. The main change is the replacement of the existing four-bracket personal income tax structure to a simpler two-bracket structure by 2012. The lowest rate will be 9% for workers earning less than $37,893. Beyond that threshold, a flat tax of 12% will be applied. Perhaps more stunning, however, is that New Brunswick plans to lower its general corporate tax rate from 13% to 12%, effective this year, and all the way down to 8% by 2012 - the lowest in the country. "The New Brunswick government appears to be relatively more proactive compared to other jurisdictions, taking bolder steps to improve its economic and fiscal roadmap," said Carlos Leitao, chief economist at Laurentian Bank Securities, in his analysis of the province's budget. Source: Paul Vieira, Financial Post pvieira@nationalpost.com ONE-TIME POWERHOUSE CAN'T KEEP UP WITH REST OF THE COUNTRY: Ont. Export Receipt Drop 11.7% Que. Export Receipt Drop 2.9% Receipt Rise Rest Of Canada 72% Ontario GDP Decline, 2009 2.9% RANKS OF WORKERS IN CANADA'S LARGEST PROVINCE TAKE IT ON THE CHIN: Ontario Unemployment 8.7% U.S. Unemployment 8.1% Quebec Unemployment 7.8% Ontario Unemployment, 2010 10% © Copyright © National Post

Le Nouveau-Brunswick et la Nouvelle-Écosse concluent un accord commercial visant à stimuler la croissance économique des deux provinces maritimes. Pour en lire plus...

Here to stay: the hip anglo By David Johnston, The GazetteJanuary 31, 2009 1:01 PM Ask a couple of twentysomething anglophones like Ryan Bedic and Brian Abraham how many of their friends have left Quebec and you are likely to draw a long pause. It isn’t that they need time to count up all of those who have left. It’s that they have trouble coming up with the name of anyone in their largely English-speaking entourage in Montreal who has left. Bedic, 23, and Abraham, 27, are students at the Pearson Electrotechnology Centre in western Lachine. In the 1970s, it was Bishop Whelan High School, an English-speaking Catholic school where students studied two hours of rudimentary French a week. Like anglo high-school students everywhere in Montreal in those days, the Bishop Whelan kids ended up graduating and finding out that Quebec politics was about to pull the rug out from under their feet. Today, the old Bishop Whelan has been reincarnated as Pearson Electrotech, a vocational-education facility with dual electricity and telecommunication streams – as well as a four-year-waiting list for specialized trade instruction in English. Most students, like Bedic and Abraham, are totally at ease in French, and counting on building careers in Montreal. Bedic says he knows one guy, an engineer, who has left for Saskatchewan. But that, he says, was because someone in his family, who owns a company there, had offered him a job. For his part, Abraham says he can also give one example of a friend who has left Quebec. “But maybe she doesn’t count,” he says, “because she always wanted to travel. She left for Vancouver. Now she’s in Dubai working for an airline.” To stay or not to stay; that has been the question for young anglophones in Quebec, across all education levels, through these past four decades of political change in Quebec. But after 35 years of uninterrupted population decline, the latest census data made public in December 2007 showed a 5.5-per-cent increase in the anglophone community from 2001 to 2006. It was the first census-to-census, five-year growth in the English-speaking community since 1971. Overall, the number of anglos who came to Quebec from other provinces and countries, or who were born here between 2001 and 2006, exceeded the number who left, or who died during these same five years. Within Canada itself, there was still a net loss of anglos to other provinces. But the average annual net loss of 1,700 anglos from 2001 to 2006 was roughly equal to the average loss in just one month in the late 1970s, or one season in the late 1990s. When the new census data came out, anglophone community leaders could hardly believe the statistical evidence of a turnaround. They didn’t know whether to trust the data. Since then, however, there has been a slow acceptance that something relatively encouraging has been happening within the English-speaking community. “It’s still too early to say that we are on a positive track for the foreseeable future,” says Jack Jedwab, executive director of the Association for Canadian Studies. “But there are definitely encouraging signs. Identity is built on events that shape you – and clearly, the dominant event for the anglophone community over time has been the migration phenomenon, and the profoundly negative psychological impact that that has had.” From 1971 to 2001, Quebec’s anglophone population – defined as those who speak primarily English in the home, no matter their ethnic background or mother tongue – declined by 15.9 per cent, from 887,875 to 746,890. During these same 30 years, Quebec’s population rose by 18.2 per cent and Canada’s 39.1 per cent. Ever since the 2006 census, Statcan has reported a new uptick in departures from Quebec. But Statcan analyst Hubert Denis says the rise hasn’t been unique to Quebec. There’s been a corresponding rise in migrations out of Ontario, he says. In fact, Ontario has begun losing more people to other provinces than Quebec is losing – something not seen since the recession of the early 1990s. “There’s something special going on there,” says Denis, citing the decline of traditional manufacturing industries in eastern Canada, as opposed to political or economic uncertainty unique to Quebec. In the case of both Ontario and Quebec, he says, people drifted to Alberta. Both La Presse and Le Journal de Montréal, Montreal’s two largest French-language newspapers, have reported over the past 18 months on a new wave of francophone migration to Fort McMurray and other oil-patch communities in Alberta. By contrast, there has been no anecdotal evidence of a new anglo exodus. Mary Deskin, a real-estate agent with Royal LePage in Pointe Claire, says 2007 was the first year since she started working in the industry in 1990 that she didn’t have a single anglo client who listed a home for sale in order to leave Quebec for another province. It was the same story last year, she says. “My listings have been all upgrades or divorces,” she says. Tom Filgiano, president of Meldrum the Mover, in Notre Dame de Grâce, has also found anglo Montreal to be all quiet on exodus front. “In fact, there is no exodus at all anymore,” he says. “It’s more of a balanced flow now.” Bedic of Pearson Electrotech, who is the son of an anglophone mother from Verdun and an immigrant father from Croatia, says he’s staying put. “I’m pretty confident about finding work in Montreal and building a life here,” he says. Abraham, the son of immigrant parents from Grenada, feels the same way. “French isn’t a problem for me,” he says. “And I like the low cost of living in Montreal.” Richard Bourhis, a professor of psychology at the Université du Québec à Montréal who has studied the anglophone community closely, says the low cost of living in Montreal has been an important driver of new anglo population growth. Bourhis isn’t the only demographer who has noticed that the 2006 census showed most of the anglo population growth was concentrated in the age 15 to 24 category. Bourhis says this suggests to him that a lot of young anglos from the rest of Canada have been migrating to Montreal to attend school or just have a good time – sort of like Canadian backpackers going to Europe a generation ago. For some out-of-province students, the cost of university tuition in Quebec is now cheaper than it is in their home provinces. For example, tuition this year is $6,155 at the University of New Brunswick, versus fees of $5,378 that Quebec charges its own out-of-province students (compared with $1,868 for Quebec residents). Many kids from small-town Canada who leave home to go to university have discovered that the cost of off-campus housing and public transit in Montreal are a bargain by Canadian standards. Bourhis says tuition, rent control and heavy taxpayer subsidization of transit have combined to create winning conditions for an influx of young anglos. For young Americans facing even more onerous tuition fees at home, the financial allures of Montreal are that much greater. In 2001, one of these young Americans who drifted up to Montreal was a 21-year-old man from Houston, Tex., named Win Butler, who came up through a Boston prep school to study religion at McGill University. A musician, he created a new band, called Arcade Fire, with a Concordia student from Toronto, and other anglo migrants from Ottawa, Guelph and Vancouver. They were joined in the band by a francophone woman of Haitian origin from the Montreal suburbs. Butler ended up marrying that woman, Régine Chassagne. Today, Arcade Fire is an international sensation. And with other new English-language indie bands like The Dears and The Stills, they have become symbols of a radically new anglo chic. It all came to a sociological climax in February of 2005, when Spin magazine, and then the New York Times, anointed Montreal the next big thing in music, the new Seattle. For anyone who remembers the acute morosity in the English-speaking community after the 1995 referendum, the proposition that Montreal would soon have international resonance because of its English cultural vibrancy would have been preposterous. But Montreal’s essence is still undeniably French, not to mention alluring for anyone who grew up admiring the city from a distance. Tamera Burnett, 22, a third-year McGill University political-science student from Kamloops, B.C., came to Montreal thinking it was a very special place. She first came to Quebec when she was 16, to study French in Jonquière. She’s continuing to improve her French today at McGill, and hopes to study law in Montreal or at the bilingual University of Ottawa. “I’d love to end up in Montreal,” she says. Bourhis, the UQAM professor, is also director of the Centre d’études ethniques des universités montréalaises, a research organization with offices at the Université de Montreal. He and Jedwab are on opposite sides of the spectrum, when it comes to interpreting the 2006 census results. Bourhis thinks the 5.5-per-cent increase is a blip that will wash out over time if the cost of living in Montreal rises to national averages for large Canadian cities, and fewer anglos come to Montreal from other provinces. But Jedwab says the main reason why the English-speaking community is growing isn’t this new influx of young anglos from the rest of Canada. The main reason is that young anglos born and bred in Quebec aren’t leaving anymore, at least not in the numbers that they did a generation ago. The reasons for that, he says, go beyond mere cost-of-living considerations. And they reflect a major shift in perception within the anglophone community, he adds. “This psychology, this sense of persistent losses, has been broken,” says Jedwab. Anglo community leaders aren’t so sure. They’re not comfortable with the notion of a renaissance. Their worry, as Jedwab sees it, is that governments will respond to the census findings of growth by reducing financial support to all the different little anglophone community groups in Quebec. “That’s the concern some people have,” Jedwab says. “And so the good news, in a perverse sort of way, is really bad news. People are afraid that governments will say, “Well, the anglophones are doing very well, thank you very much. What kind of support do they really need anymore?’ ” Robert Donnelly, president of the Quebec Community Groups Network, the main umbrella group for all the anglophone community organizations in Quebec, says the census results need to be interpreted with caution. In almost every region of Quebec outside of Montreal, says Donnelly, anglophone populations are continuing to shrink – and shrink fast. Without strong government financial and moral support, he says, English schools, old-age homes, community newspapers and health services in the regions will be severely threatened. “While the numbers are up overall, they mask serious declines outside of Montreal,” says Donnelly, a native of Quebec City, which has a 2 per cent anglo population, down from 40 per cent a century ago. But Donnelly admits that something encouraging does appear to be going on with young anglos in Montreal. “Are we finally moving on beyond Bill 101 and the after-effects of that? Maybe there’s a stabilizing factor that has kicked in,” he says. “We’re hearing less and less about people leaving.” Bill 101 chased away a lot of anglos at first. But over time, the demands of the language law also created the conditions for the rise of a new generation of anglophones more at ease in French than their Bishop Whelan forefathers were in the 1970s. And that has helped make it easier for young anglos today to stay. djohnston@thegazette.canwest.com © Copyright © The Montreal Gazette