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Recession for Canada in 2009: UBS But fundamentals are sound, and recession should be shallow and short: Strategist Jonathan Ratner, Canwest News Service Published: 2 hours ago TORONTO - Declining GDP in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2009 will bring the Canadian economy into an official recession, UBS predicted Monday. "The Canadian economy, which has been only barely above water for nearly a year, does not escape the global undertow . . ." strategist George Vasic told clients. He cited weakness in exports and sharp reductions in commodity prices as where the impact is being felt most. While domestic demand has held up, UBS expects weaker confidence will put activity on hold. 'The Canadian economy, which has been only barely above water for nearly a year, does not escape the global undertow . . .' UBS strategist George Vasic told his clients. 'The Canadian economy, which has been only barely above water for nearly a year, does not escape the global undertow . . .' UBS strategist George Vasic told his clients. But for the first time in a long time, the underpinnings of the Canadian economy are sound going into the downturn, Vasic said, highlighting historically average consumer debt service ratios and a balanced budget. ". . . It is not always the case that when the U.S. catches a cold, Canada gets pneumonia," he added, predicting that consumer sentiment should hold up better. As a result, the strategist said the economic risk is lower in Canada and there is room to take on counter-cyclical initiatives. UBS expects the bank of Canada to lower its overnight rate target from three per cent to two per cent by the end of the first quarter and sees the loonie falling to around 91US cents. Nonetheless, the Canadian economic outlook has been cut from 1.8 per cent to 0.4 per cent next year. UBS also cut its 2009 U.S. growth target from 1.2 per cent to 0.3 per cent and global growth from 2.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent. It reduced its crude oil price forecast from $120 US a barrel to $105 US and expects other commodities to be five per cent to 30 per cent below 2008 levels.

Montreal hotels offer escape from tourists Graeme Hamilton, National Post MONTREAL - At street level, there is an old-world charm to parts of this city, where horse-drawn caleches roll over cobblestone streets, passing buildings dating from the French regime. But then again, the smell of horse urine can get a little pungent on a steaming-hot day, the cobblestones can do a number on your ankle if you're not careful, and for every building of historic interest there's another housing a tacky souvenir shop. Montreal's year-round inhabitants have discovered a new escape route from the tourist-clogged streets, which oddly enough begins in a hotel lobby. A number of city hotels have sprouted rooftop terrasses where the (admittedly steep) price of a beer is also said to buy you a smashing view, a chance to mix with the in crowd and in one case, a dip in the pool if the spirit moves you. The trend has been fuelled by a proliferation of boutique hotels in Old Montreal, which have helped revive a neighbourhood that had been sliding. The best of a bunch sampled recently was atop the Hotel Nelligan, just up from the waterfront on St. Paul Street West. In one direction, the view was of the St. Lawrence River, Ile Notre-Dame and Moshe Safdie's Habitat '67 apartment complex, gleaming as it caught the early-evening sun; in the other, Notre-Dame basilica loomed. Dormer windows on adjacent buildings looked very Parisian, although the music -- an eclectic mix of oldies ranging from Lynyrd Skynyrd to Smokey Robinson -- screamed 1970s rec room. The terrasse, called Sky, does not exactly qualify as a best-kept secret. The rooftop was packed, and the area reserved for dining had an hour-long wait for a table. An even larger crowd awaited atop the Hotel Place d'Armes on the Aix terrasse. After wandering past hotel rooms to find the door leading to the roof, we were greeted by a bouncer recording each arrival and departure with a handheld counter. Asked how many people there were, he replied that the information was "confidential." A waiter said we had arrived on the patio's busiest night of the week, a Thursday. It was largely an after-work crowd looking to start the weekend early; a hotel guest looking for a relaxing cocktail in the sun would have been surprised to find a scene fit for Crescent Street, the city's famous nightclub strip. "It's happy hour," the waiter advised us, which seemed hard to believe after having just paid $7.50 for a bottle of beer. He clarified that the prices are unchanged during this particular bar's happy hour. It's just that people are happy. The view was not the best, hurt by the fact Montreal planners over the years have allowed an architectural jewel such as the basilica to be dwarfed by modern monstrosities such as the National Bank tower on Place d'Armes and the courthouse a block to the east. For a view, the hands-down winner was Hotel de la Montagne, in the city's downtown -- and not just because its rooftop pool is surrounded by bikini-clad sunbathers. On a recent evening, looking southeast we could see clear to the Eastern Townships. In the foreground was Montreal's skyline and behind us Mount Royal. The hotel has no pretense of "boutique" trendiness, from the ebony elephants and crocodile statues in the lobby to the party atmosphere on the rooftop. "People say that it is dated, so what, so is your girlfriend," a young Ohio man who recently stayed at the hotel wrote on tripadvisor.com last month. "The pool on the roof is as cool as it gets. We arrived on Friday afternoon, and the roof looked like a scene from spring break in Cancun." Our waitress advised us that the small pool is open to all customers whether they are staying at the hotel or not, "as long as you have alcohol." Not too much, she hastened to add, relating the story of a drunken man who had a contest with friends to see who could stay underwater the longest. He never came up, she said.